The wheat is starting to separate itself from the chaff in the NFL and we are seeing some increasingly big lines in a number of games but we still have some super matchups capped by the Harbaugh brothers meeting on Monday night.
Cleveland +3.5 (v Pittsburgh)
There is no better division to play the underdog than the AFC North with division dogs covering at 61% since 2009 while the Steelers are 1-6 against the spread on the road in division Thursday Night Football games.
Indianapolis +7.5 (v Detroit)
Home underdogs cover at 61% while the Colts are 13-2 against the spread as a home dog of six or more points.
Miami -7 (v New England)
Miami have won and covered eight straight against the Patriots while they have made a habit in beating up on bad teams, covering 18 of 29 against sub .500 teams.
Baltimore -2.5 (at LA Chargers)
Lamar Jackson is a remarkable 25-6 against the spread when an underdog or favourite of a field goal or less while he has won 19 of 24 career night games.
Brock Purdy (assuming he plays) will jump an underdog for the first time in his career. Jordan Love is a poor 4-7 against the spread when favoured while the Niners are 9-2 against the spread off blowing a lead of four or more.
Under 37 Pittsburgh-Cleveland
Low-totalled games historically go under with the under hitting at 69% when the total is 37 or lower.
Under 41.5 Tampa Bay-NY Giants
The under is 21-11 when both teams are playing off their bye, as is the case with the Bucs and Giants.
Under 49 Philadelphia-LA Rams
The under hits at 67% on Sunday Night Football since 2022 while the under is 21-12 when Jalen Hurts plays on the road.
Cleveland +3.5 (v Pittsburgh)
There is no better division to play the underdog than the AFC North with division dogs covering at 61% since 2009 while the Steelers are 1-6 against the spread on the road in division Thursday Night Football games.
Under 49 Philadelphia-LA Rams
The under hits at 67% on Sunday Night Football since 2022 while the under is 21-12 when Jalen Hurts plays on the road.
Baltimore -2.5 (at LA Chargers)
Lamar Jackson is a remarkable 25-6 against the spread when an underdog or favourite of a field goal or less while he has won 19 of 24 career night games.
The Colts and Dolphins are both listed among the best bets of the week. The Titans are an awful 1-9 against the spread this year making the Texans a play.
The Niners are listed as the best underdog of the week. Home dogs off six or more losses are 48-32-5 against the spread, making the Raiders a play. Teams off a win as a road underdog against a division opponent cover at 60%.
Nico Collins had an 80-yard touchdown taken off the board in his comeback game last week. He scored in three of his four prior to getting hurt. He has topped 117 yards in half of his games in 2024.
David Montgomery has scored in all bar two games this season. Joe Mixon has 11 touchdowns in 8 games since joining the Texans. Brian Robinson has scored in five of his last six. De’von Achane has four touchdowns in his last four and is a nice bet to get across with the Dolphins heavily favoured.