Week 10 kicks off with a rare appetising Thursday Night Football fixture between the Ravens and the Bengals while Sunday Night Football features the most enticing matchup of the week when the red-hot Lions head to Houston to tackle the Texans.
New Orleans +4 (v Atlanta)
New Orleans have covered 13 of 14 revenge games while teams off five straight non-covers and being outscored by 50-plus over that run cover at 64.9%.
Chicago -6 (v New England)
Rookie QBs as a home favourite cover at 76.2% while rookie QBs on the road cover at just 41.9% from Week 10 onwards so all signs point to a Bears cover in this battle of rookie signal-callers.
Tampa Bay +6 (v San Francisco)
Home teams pre-bye after Week 8 cover at 64.8%, a good number for the Bucs, while Brock Purdy is 0-6 ATS off scoring 30-plus points.
Detroit -3.5 (at Houston)
The Lions have covered 15 of 17 off a double digit win while they are 20-5 against the spread against teams with a winning record.
The Chargers are a huge risk in a game that will be low-scoring. This is very much a play against re-tread coaches, who cover at just 37.9% when favoured and 41.5% in the opening 10 weeks. The Titans are big odds.
Under 53 Cincinnati-Baltimore
This is a great spot for the under with the most notable number being the under hitting in 22 of 30 when a Thursday Night Football matchup has a total north than 50.
Under 41.5 Denver-Kansas City
The under is 31-11 when Andy Reid is a home favourite of at least seven points while the under is 70-38 when the Chiefs are favoured at home.
Under 39 Tennessee-LA Chargers
The under has hit in 13 straight when the Chargers are on normal rest while it is 61-27 when the Chargers are off a win.
Under 53 Cincinnati-Baltimore
This is a great spot for the under with the most notable number being the under hitting in 22 of 30 when a Thursday Night Football matchup has a total north than 50.
Detroit -3.5 (at Houston)
The Lions have covered 15 of 17 off a double digit win while they are 20-5 against the spread against teams with a winning record.
Miami +1 (at LA Rams)
This is a spot to be against the LA Rams with Sean McVay’s team covering just one of nine when on extra rest while teams with a better record cover at just 36.4% on Monday Night Football.
All three are listed in the four best bets of the week making this a Tier 1 multi.
The Titans are the top underdog play and look an excellent bet to cover the line. Home teams pre-bye after Week 8 cover at 64.8% so the Cardinals are a great bet. Philadelphia have been unreliable cover propositions but with the Cowboys gutted by injury, they should win.
The Bears look set to run rampant over the Patriots and New England are vulnerable in the secondary. Moore has three touchdowns this season and is averaging 7.5 targets a game so Caleb Williams will feed him.
D’Andre Swift has scored in four of his last five. Cook has eight touchdowns in eight outings and is being fed relentlessly close to the line. David Montgomery has just two games without a TD this season in the best offense in the NFL.
Gibbs has been a machine this year, topping 60 yards in seven straight and averaging 6.4 yards per carry this season. Montgomery has scored in all bar two games this season and has topped 60 in four of eigh games.