UFC 307 comes to us from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah, United States and features a stacked card with two title fights. Topped by a championship double header in the light heavyweight and women’s bantamweight divisions, the main card is rounded out by fan favorite veterans like Jose Aldo and Kevin Holland looking to further their legacy in the final stages of their career.
The ascent of Alex Pereira is difficult to overstate. A Hall of Fame-worthy career in kickboxing seems like a distant memory for Pereira at this point in his title reign, but he was still competing in the sport up to the tail end of 2021. A year later, he was the UFC’s middleweight champion. The year after, light heavyweight champion.
The stone-faced killer known as “Poatan” has built a reputation for devastating power but it is his ability to place those heavy hands consistently that has earned him titles across two sports. His inborn concussive force is a relevant factor but he has proven deceptively savvy and well-timed.
This year alone, Pereira has racked up two title defenses and emphatically finished both. Having taken little damage in victory, Pereira has remained active and quickly grown comfortable with competing in the cage.
Though he is not much of an offensive wrestler having attempted only a single takedown in his UFC tenure (it succeeded), Pereira’s grappling ability has leveled up noticeably under the watchful eye of Glover Teixeira.
Now a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Pereira is keen to demonstrate that aspect of his game and has threatened submissions in the past. Even at the age of 37, he has continued to develop new tools and better adapt old ones for a modern MMA landscape. Naturally, spending time on his back has been a notable concern but even that aspect has seen clear improvement in recent years.
Beyond that, Pereira is unlikely to have his wrestling tested when he takes on Muay Thai specialist Khalil Rountree. Both men strongly prefer getting things done on the feet and have conceded they’re happy to continue the trend this weekend.
Much like the champion, Rountree is outputting career-best work and is riding a five-fight win streak into the biggest fight of his career. Though a sizable underdog at UFC 307, Rountree is confident and believes he can keep up with Pereira on the feet.
A southpaw with thudding power and a firm dedication to Muay Thai, Rountree is one of the most ruthless strikers in the sport, let alone the division. Happy to kick out his foe’s knee or break their ribs with a kick, Rountree owns a hefty offense that is hitting its stride.
Almost everything Rountree throws has bad intentions and as such, he tends to plant himself when he fires. However, his power dissuades most from engaging in long sequences. Sharp counter-punching coupled with his evident stopping power makes him a dangerous threat, particularly when he gets a read on his opponent’s timing.
That said, Rountree often owns clear physical advantages over his opponents and furthermore is typically the more technically skilled striker, as well. That does not stand to be the case against Alex Pereira.
Jumping from fringe contenders like Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby to someone of Pereira’s caliber stands to be a tall task for anyone, but Rountree will be forced to compare against his foe’s best skill set. Without wrestling or grappling skill or interest to seriously threaten, Rountree will be locked into a kickboxing match with one of the best in his era.
The reigning champion not only carried substantial momentum into this bout but also a significant advantage in arguably every department. With a choice match-up in front of him, look for Alex Pereira to cleanly dominate the night, showcase a few new attacks, and end things before the final bell.
Suggested Same Game Multi: Pereira Wins By KO/TKO or Submission + Pereira 1+ Takedowns
At 36-years-old, Raquel Pennington is only beginning her title reign and the greatest chapter of her career. In over 12 years as a professional, Pennington has been put through the wringer and evolved several times over as a fighter. At one point, her record stood at a paltry 3-3 and a championship seemed an impossible distance away.
Today, Pennington is a seasoned veteran who used every bit of that savvy to win the vacant bantamweight title over Mayra Bueno Silva. Well-rounded as she is, Pennington has impressed by developing into a reliable striker with very clean boxing.
At this point in Pennington’s career, offensive takedowns are a fleeting thought. It is her hands that get the majority of damage done, but respect is owed to Pennington for her underrated work in the clinch. A firmly determined competitor, Pennington is not only durable but difficult to control in any one area.
As her skills have improved, her confidence has been bolstered and offensive output has increased as a result. Now hitting her stride and offering some thumping offense, Pennington has needed to worry most about takedown defense in recent outings.
That stands to be the case once again when Pennington looks to defend her title against its former owner Juliana Pena. A grappling specialist who has had a long and tumultuous career, Pena is desperate for a win and disinterested in climbing up the ranks again.
The saga of Pena is a dramatic one and despite a mere 15 professional bouts, Pena’s legacy spans as far back to being The Ultimate Fighter 18 winner. Injuries, pregnancy, and layoffs in general have stalled Pena’s momentum on numerous occasions but UFC 307 is an opportunity for her to recapture it all without missing a beat.
An upset win over Amanda Nunes in 2021 serves as the hallmark of Pena’s career but a subsequent defeat seven months later took the wind out of the sails. Pena hasn’t fought since and carries a layoff of over two years into this weekend.
While some fighters come back from layoffs with new tools or mindsets, Pena has historically come back largely similar. Though she has improved in her years as an overall initiator, Pena remains a grappling specialist who does everything else worse than one would expect from a champion.
Despite the occasional outlier, striking has largely been a liability for Pena and she stands to struggle in that department here. Credit is due to Pena for her willingness to come forward and force action but I am doubtful it will be enough to carry a victory against Pennington.
There is a clear technical discrepancy waiting to be showcased on the feet and Pena has seldom shown the kind of physicality or finesse that truly challenges the current champion. A comparably composed and fine-tuned striker, Pennington may find herself in a disadvantageous position a time or two but should be able to control the majority of this bout and establish a dominant rhythm.
31-years-old and an impressive 8-2 in the UFC, Mario Bautista is one of the few men in the organization to be a clear betting favorite over Jose Aldo. Riding a six-fight win streak with half as many ending in the first round, Bautista continually impressed as he climbed #11 in the division.
Bautista’s appearance earlier this year – a decision win over Ricky Simon – proved he could stay efficient and active while fending off takedowns from a dynamic and speedy foe. This weekend will prove a different challenge with Bautista’s striking being put to the test.
Offensive takedowns have been an occasional part of Bautista’s game but traction on that front is unlikely against the renowned anti-wrestler; this one is almost assured to be a shrewd and tense striking affair. UFC 307 stands as the biggest fight of Bautista’s career and the greatest step up in competition he has yet to face.
The young upstart has demonstrated excellent striking and a particular affinity for ripping the body but stands to struggle implementing his usual tools against a savvy veteran in Aldo.
Despite entering the cage at 38-years-old, Aldo is still displaying a surprising amount of resilience and capability. A rough stretch pre-COVID that saw Aldo go 2-5 signaled many to jump off the bandwagon and begin calling for his retirement, but Aldo has since found a second (or third?) wind of sorts.
Aside from successful side ventures into the world of boxing, Aldo most notably returned to the cage earlier this year and upset Jonathan Martinez – a man seven years his junior at the time. The Brazilian may not be in his prime but is still capable of handing out technical lessons, particularly against anyone unwilling to pressure him.
Jose Aldo is best when he is allowed to fight at his own pace and while that sounds simple to exploit, breaking through his excellent distance control and sneaky countering requires a level of durability and finesse beyond most. In the case of this weekend, Mario Bautista is the betting favorite but won’t be able to simply walk forward and impose his will.
Bautista is a respectable puncher but where he does his best work is picking foes apart and later exploiting an advantage on the mat. Though he has made impressive strides in his boxing ability, I doubt his ability to outdo Aldo in a technical striking bout.
Pressure and output trouble Aldo more than anything but applying relentless aggression has never been in the nature of Bautista. As unlikely as it seems, Aldo continues to demonstrate relevance and even some new weapons as he takes on a generation of fighters that looked up to his title reign.
Recently passing his 21st year as an MMA professional and competing in a division lower than his prime, Aldo may nonetheless prove yet again why he is one of the greatest competitors in the sport’s history.
The biggest betting favorite at UFC 307, Kayla Harrison enters the weekend not only with high expectations but a likely title shot on the line. A dominant former champion outside the UFC, Harrison made her organizational debut earlier this year against Holly Holm – an expected dismantling.
A two-time Olympic gold medalist in Judo, Harrison has built up a bulletproof reputation as one of the best female competitors in both Judo and MMA’s history. At 34-years-old, she has her eyes set on the bantamweight title and the confirmation of an epic legacy.
Inside the cage, Harrison has proven a predictably devastating grappling who excels in tie-ups. Judo continues to be a driving force behind Harrison’s tools in the clinch but her wrestling has continued to level up in recent years.
Beyond the increasingly versatile takedown threat, Harrison has worked hard to develop her striking and it shows. Harrison has a surprisingly active jab from the southpaw stance and has even demonstrated consistent head movement to go along with her forward pressure.
Harrison may not be expected to floor fighters on the feet but she is a powerful and well-schooled fighter poving to be a more well-rounded threat than most anticipate. Her offensive output on the feet is generally used to set up her takedowns, but don’t be surprised if Harrison starts finding more traction with subtle kickboxing that plays off of her grappling threat.
Looking to stall the momentum and capture it for herself, Ketlen Vieira is desperate to get the ball rolling after having her return postponed earlier this year due to injury. Now, Vieira has an opportunity to slingshot herself into a title shot and capture a career-best win in her tenth year as a professional.
A black belt in both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and Judo, Vieira has been quick to dispute the idea she cannot grapple with Kayla Harrison. Though it remains to be seen, Vieira would unquestionably be best off handling things on the feet.
One of the few who may be able to compare to Harrison’s strength and physicality at bantamweight, Vieira is a strong and composed fighter who does solid work on the feet. Well-rounded as she is, Vieira’s best path to success likely lies in a mobile, striking-heavy game plan much like she implemented against Miesha Tate.
While the odds may not favor her to do it at UFC 307, Vieira’s takedown defense has historically been quite reliable. In fact, she has the 4th best takedown defense in the entire organization and is the leader among women.
There is a timeline in which Vieira keeps her feet active and her hands moving, sniffing out takedown attempts from afar and edging out rounds on the feet. Unfortunately, I don’t anticipate the result in our timeline this weekend.
Respect is due to Vieira for taking a fight with a divisional boogeyman but five minutes is a long time to stay on your feet against a hard-charging and dedicated opponent like Harrison. Though I expect more total minutes of striking in this contest than most may, ultimately it should be a dominant performance from top position that secures victory for Harrison.
Happy to fight in two divisions but finding himself stabled back at middleweight for the second time this year, Kevin Holland was last seen in a fun 94-second scrap that resulted in a submission win. The chaotic bout with Michał Oleksiejczuk saw Holland get dropped early on but sink in a fight-ending armbar.
That kind of drama is nothing new for Holland, especially since dedicating himself to obtaining bonuses and entertaining fans. The part-time crime fighter seldom needs the judges and wins decisions on even rarer occasions.
A finisher through and through, Holland has received from ire from the critically analytical for obliging messy slug fests but ultimately tends to come out the other side successful. Holland is historically a durable fighter unafraid to put his chin on the line but recent outings have seen him getting hurt more frequently.
Despite this, his style inside the cage remains unchanged. Flashy, offense-minded, and heavy-handed, Holland possesses real finishing power in his hands but is furthermore a deceptively sharp offensive grappler. In fact, it has become such an effective part of his game that three of his last four finishes have been submissions.
While it is undoubtedly a sharp new tool in the arsenal of Holland, UFC 307 poses a unique stylistic challenge in Roman Dolidze. A former ADCC Asia & Oceanic champion Dolidze is not known as a submission threat in MMA but has used his grappling chops to force finishes.
A physically domineering fighter, the Georgian-born Dolidze competed at light heavyweight earlier this year but typically stations himself at middleweight. With heavy hands and the willingness to swing them wildly, Dolidze is not a gun-shy fighter but his lack of finesse has been exploited by higher level opposition.
Interestingly, there is a real possibility Dolidze comes out ready and willing to strike for the first half of the bout. Though I anticipate takedowns rearing their head when Dolidze begins to feel the pace, the majority of this bout may very well take place on the feet.
Dolidze has never been an expert in executing game plans and while the same could be said for Holland, a pure striking contest should favor the American. The longer this fight goes, the sloppier it’ll be but Holland should be able to rack up enough damage to get the job done before the night ends.
Pereira v Rountree: Pereira Wins By KO/TKO or Submission @ $1.35
Pennington v Pena: Pennington Wins By Decision $2.10
Bautista v Aldo: Aldo Head To Head @ $2.15
Harrison v Vieira: Harrison Wins By KO/TKO or Submission @ $2.15
Holland v Dolidze: Holland Wins By KO/TKO @ $5.50
Buckley v Thompson: Buckley Wins By Decision @ $2.50
Lucindo v Rodriguez: Rodriguez Wins By Decision @ $3.30
Hernandez v Hubbard: Hernandez Wins By Decision @ $2.70
Almeida v Potieria: Almeida Wins By KO/TKO @ $1.45
Spann v Saint Preux: Saint Preux Head To Head @ $3.00
Pennington v Esparza: Pennington Wins By Decision @ $1.90
Means v McGee: McGee Head To Head @ $2.65