History
There have been just seven games between Japan and New Zealand in the history of international rugby, but the regularity of these matchups has increased significantly in the last 15 years. The All Blacks have won all seven games, including a famous 145-17 victory in the 1995 Rugby World Cup, however, the Brave Blossoms have been closing in on the ABs in recent years — 2022’s encounter saw New Zealand win by just seven points.
Form
Japan finished as the runners-up in the 2024 Pacific Nations Cup, getting well beaten 17-41 by Fiji in Higashiōsaka. The Brave Blossoms showcased an exciting brand of rugby throughout the tournament, with Eddie Jones back at the helm of the team, averaging 48 points per game through the semifinals, but they couldn’t match the physicality and the athleticism of the Fijians in the final. Overall, Japan are 4-5 in 2024, splitting their two-game series against the Māori All Blacks and suffering heavy defeats against England and Italy in June and July.
New Zealand finished the Rugby Championship in second place with a 3-3 record, making for a rocky start to Scott Robertson’s tenure. After a pair of hard-fought victories against England to kick off Razor’s reign, an opening round defeat against Argentina in Wellington all but sealed the All Blacks’ fate in TRC, and it was evident that NZ have a ways to go if they are to become the world’s best again after being outclassed in a pair of games in South Africa. The 27-31 and 12-18 losses to the reigning world champions weren’t particularly bad, but showed the gap in quality as the Boks closed out both games in style. A Bledisloe Cup scare in Sydney continued the rocky road, before ending TRC with a 33-13 win over the Wallabies at the Cake Tin.
Teams
Japan: 1 Takato Okabe, 2 Atsushi Sakate, 3 Shuhei Takeuchi, 4 Sanaila Waqa, 5 Warner Deans, 6 Amato Fakatava, 7 Kazuki Himeno, 8 Faulua Makisi, 9 Shinobu Fujiwara, 10 Harumichi Tatekawa, 11 Malo Tuitama, 12 Nicholas McCurran, 13 Dylan Riley, 14 Jone Naikabula, 15 Yoshitaka Yazaki. Reserves: 16 Mamoru Harada, 17 Takayoshi Mohara, 18 Opeti Helu, 19 Epineri Uluiviti, 20 Kanji Shimokawa, 21 Taiki Koyama, 22 Tomoki Osada, 23 Takuro Matsunaga.
New Zealand: 1 Tamaiti Williams, 2 Asafo Aumua, 3 Pasilio Tosi, 4 Sam Darry, 5 Patrick Tuipulotu, 6 Samipeni Finau, 7 Sam Cane, 8 Wallace Sititi, 9 Cam Roigard, 10 Damian McKenzie, 11 Mark Tele’a, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 13 Billy Proctor, 14 Sevu Reece, 15 Stephen Perofeta. Reserves: 16 George Bell, 17 Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Thomas Perenara, 22 David Havili, 23 Ruben Love.
Eddie Jones has made six changes to his starting XV after the defeat in the Pacific Nations Cup final. Veteran hooker Atsushi Sakate returns to start at hooker, former Hawke’s Bay lock Sanaila Waqa comes in at lock and the reliable Kazuki Himeno starts at openside. In the backs, Jone Naikabula and Yoshitaka Yazaki come in to start at wing and fullback, respectively.
Scott Robertson is taking this game as an opportunity to get some minutes into his less-experienced players, with Pasilio Tosi, Sam Darry, Wallace Sititi and Billy Proctor all starting. The return to international rugby for gun halfback Cam Roigard will be exciting, as will the potential debuts for Hurricanes Ruben Love and Peter Lakai off the bench.
Stats That Matter
- Japan have covered just one of their last eight games at home
- Japan have never beaten New Zealand in international rugby, with the average scoreline being 81-11
- New Zealand are 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games
- The over is 4-1 in NZ’s last five road games
The Verdict
A fast-paced, high-scoring game of rugby is ahead on Saturday night. These two teams are not afraid to throw the ball around and many in this new-look All Blacks team will be wanting to take their chance to impress, meaning we’ll be seeing plenty of action at Nissan Stadium. Cam Roigard looked great in his return to rugby when playing for Counties Manukau earlier in the month and will spark action into his back line, featuring dangerous ball runners throughout. Japan, too, will be wanting to stamp their mark after they let themselves down in the PNC final. Eddie Jones has brought a new style of play to the Brave Blossoms and they won’t be shy to attack, even if that means a little less focus on defence. But that doesn’t mean that it will be an effective game plan against the All Blacks. While Razor has named far from a full-strength team, this is a very good attacking unit in the ABs 23 and they will show that off on Saturday, with a big win in a high-scoring game.
Tips
Best: Total Points — Over 65.5 ($1.85)
Next: New Zealand -33.5 ($1.87)
Value: Power Plays — New Zealand to Score 2+ Tries in the First 10 Minutes ($6.00)