NRL Tips & Preview | Grand Final

For the 9th time in the last decade the NRL Grand Final will include at least one of the Panthers or Storm. The two locked horns in 2020 with Cameron Smith getting the ideal send off in a 26-20 win. The Panthers have bounced back from that defeat to complete a three-peat and are chasing a fourth consecutive premiership – a feat that has not been achieved since the Dragons won 11 in a row in the 50s/60s. Both teams were completely dominant in their respective preliminary finals last week and are at the peak of their powers. The Storm belted the Roosters 48-18 but will be without Asofa-Solomona after he was handed a suspension for a high shot on Linday Collins in the opening tackle of the match. The Panthers were at their defensive best as they accounted for the Sharks 26-6 with Nathan Cleary given the all clear after he displayed shoulder discomfort in the closing stages of the match. 

 Head To Head:
Leading into this season the Panthers had won 6 of the 8 meetings since their 2020 Grand Final loss. That did not deter the Storm who won 8-0 in an epic battle in Round 1. They further enhanced their premiership credentials when they went to the foot of the mountains in Round 24 and beat the Panthers 24-22 on their own turf. The Storm may be listed as the home team, but this is no home game for them. They have posted an 8-7 record in their last 15 games at Accor Stadium while the Panthers have won 6 of their last 7 at the ground. That includes a crushing 38-4 win over the Storm in last year’s preliminary final. There has been an average of 31.0 total match points across their last 8 battles with only three of those games topping 40 points.  

Stats That Matter:
Despite being the three-time defending champions, the Panthers have been installed as slight outsiders. They have been the betting underdog only twice in the last year and won both of those games. This is a genuine clash of styles as the success of the Storm this season has come on the back of brilliance in attack. They have averaged 42.6ppg in their last 5 with the Over hitting in each of their last 6 games leading into this one. In contrast, the Under is 5-0 in the Panthers last 5 and they have been able to consistently lean on their defence during their extended reign as premiers. The Panthers have won their last 11 finals games and have conceded more than 12 points in only one of those games. There has been an average of 34.3 total match points in those games with the Panthers holding the Storm to a combined total of only 10 points across their last two finals clashes.  

Prediction:
The Storm were completely dominant through the middle against the Roosters. They exploited a weakness in the defence between Angus Crichton and Luke Keary by shifting the ball early and creating space back on the inside. The halves pairing of Hughes and Munster combined for an incredible 5 tries but there will be no repeat in the Grand Final. As has been the case for several years now, the Panthers were the best defensive team in the NRL by a clear margin and coincided a league-low 11 tries through the middle third. The absence of Nelson Asofa-Solomona will make it harder for the Storm to match the size of the Panthers through the middle third and when it comes to using outside backs to get out of their own end, there is no better team than the Panthers. Only 2 of the last 10 NRL Grand Finals have produced more than 40 total match points, and a low scoring game will benefit the Panthers. It will not be a blowout, but the Panthers will be crowned NRL Premiers for a fourth year in a row following a tight defensive battle.

Storm v Panthers Tips: 

Best Bet: Under 40.5 points ($1.90)
Other: Panthers +1.5 ($1.85)
Same Game Multi: Panthers 1-12, 31-40 Total Match Points, To’o Anytime Tryscorer ($16.47)