Finals footy has arrived in the NPC after a thrilling final round of action. A total of 14 All Blacks have been released to play in this first week of finals and after Taranaki’s upset win over Tasman last week, the competition looks wide open.
Wellington ended up finishing on top of the table for the second-straight season, courtesy of a bonus point victory against Hawke’s Bay on Saturday and Taranaki’s upset over Taranaki. It hadn’t been the smoothest run into the final round of the season for the Lions, losing to the Mako in Round 6, before getting demolished by Counties Manukau in the penultimate round, losing 12-51. Now Wellington prepare for a rematch with Counties, as they look to reverse their result from the showdown in Pukekohe just two weeks ago, and last week’s win over Hawke’s Bay would have done their confidence wonders. A disastrous start to the game had the Lions trailing 0-21 after just 16 minutes of play, as the Magpies ran in the game’s opening three tries. However, Tjay Clarke got Wellington’s scoring started with his seventh try of the season and come the 37th minute, the Lions were in front. The try-scoring continued into the second half for the hosts and while Hawke’s Bay threatened a comeback, a late try to Julian Savea sealed the deal for Wellington. With home ground advantage for as long as they’re alive in the finals, but there’s a bit of a uncertainty around this Lions team given how they have performed in the past month.
Not many people would have picked Counties Manukau to make the top eight at the start of the season, but here they are. A miraculous midseason turn in form saw the Steelers win five of their last six games to take the final spot in the top eight, and there were some massive wins in that run home. Their bonus point victory over Manawatū on Saturday proved to be the most impactful, all but sealing their spot in the top eight, but their victory the week prior was what really catapulted them into contention, dominating their opponents-in-waiting. The return of Cam Roigard last week was a massive factor in their performance, as the young gun helped flip the game on its head in the second half, helping turn a 14-19 deficit into a 45-26 win. The All Black scored two tries and was instrumental in a burst of scoring from the visitors, as was fellow AB Dalton Papali’i. Roigard has been given the green tick to suit up again this week, but the Lions are welcoming in Billy Proctor, Ruben Love, TJ Perenara and Asafo Aumua, and this game will be out of the Steelers’ reach. Wellington have covered seven of their last 11 games at Sky Stadium and are 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games. Counties cover just 42% of their road games.
Tips
Best: Wellington -11.5 ($1.87)
Value: Wellington 11-20 ($3.40)
Bay Of Plenty finished their season in style, winning four out of their last five games to finish in fourth place. Their spot in the top four was already sealed heading into last week’s game against Auckland, but they didn’t take it easy on the hosts, prevailing with a 26-24 win. While the Steamers didn’t have an abundance of scoring opportunities in this clash, they were very efficient with their chances but the most impressive side of their game was their defence. The Steamers were able to hold out attack after attack from the hosts and held the Aucklanders to just four tries, despite enjoying a massive 65% possession across the game. Nikora Broughton, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Kurt Eklund and Joe Johnston were all immense defensively, each racking up 20+ tackles, while the big men in the forwards were among the best on attack, too. Finishing the season with the best attacking record and the second-best defensive record, the Steamers may well take some stopping this season.
Hawke’s Bay had one of the stranger seasons in recent years, coming into the year holding the Ranfurly Shield and looking very slick through the opening four rounds, as they waltzed to a 5-0 record. However, a heartbreaking one-point defeat against Tasman saw them relinquish the Shield and their season appeared to go up in flames from that point on, as they picked up 45- and 44-point defeats in consecutive games to hit rock bottom. A one-point win against Auckland brought a brief resurgence, but their 28-46 defeat to Wellington last week has re-sparked concerns about this Magpies outfit. These two teams did not meet in the regular season but it’s been clear that this Hawke’s Bay team is not at the level of last year’s grand finalists and I expect their season to come to an end on Saturday. The best team that the Magpies have beaten this season is Canterbury, having lost all of their clashes with the competition’s best, and I expect that trend to continue. However, the 8.5-point handicap that the hosts are getting is a little excessive from the bookies, and I see the Magpies covering this line. Hawke’s Bay have been a good road team in the past 12 months, having gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 away from home and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as underdogs.
Tips
Best: Hawke’s Bay +8.5 ($1.87)
Value: Bay Of Plenty 1-12 ($2.70)
Taranaki have been the form team in the competition to end the season, culminating in a classy performance to win the Ranfurly Shield from Tasman on Sunday. The 42-29 victory was as comprehensive as the scoreline makes it out to be, with the Bulls scoring inside the opening 10 minutes through the formidable Daniel Rona and by the 20-minute mark, their lead was out to 15-3. The Mako made things interesting late, scoring two quick tries to cut the deficit to six points with 10 minutes to play, but as Adam Lennox finished off a slick move in the corner, it was all but confirmed that the Shield would be spending the summer in the Naki. Now with some serious momentum behind them heading into finals, the Bulls will be feeling good about their chances of defending their title, but a stern challenger awaits on Saturday night. These teams met at this ground in Round 5, with Taranaki pulling off a dramatic 25-19 victory courtesy of a late try from Josh Jacomb, and neutrals will be hoping for a similarly entertaining game in this third quarterfinal.
Waikato have been one of the more inconsistent teams in the competition, with some high highs and some low lows in 2024. Starting off the season 1-2 with double-digit defeat to Bay of Plenty and North Harbour, it looked like a long season was ahead for the Mooloos, but back-to-back big wins against Auckland and Northland got their season back on track. However, they have struggled to continue that form, largely thanks to a tough late-season schedule that has seen them take on Taranaki, Hawke’s Bay, Tasman and Canterbury in the last five rounds. Still, a big win over the Magpies and Southland in their final four games have shown that this Mooloos team is capable of stepping up their game, but this Taranaki team is operating on a different level at the moment. With Luke Jacobson and Samipeni Finau released to suit up for the Mooloos, they will boost the visitors’ chances, but the return of Stephen Perofeta for the Bulls will prove to be more influential and will help the hosts sail home. Waikato cover just 43% of their road games and are just 5-8 ATS in their last 13 on the road.
Tips
Best: Taranaki -6.5 ($1.82)
Value: Taranaki 1-12 ($2.70)
Tasman’s tough late-season schedule caught up with them last week as they were forced to relinquish the Ranfurly Shield after a 29-42 defeat against Taranaki. With the vast majority of the team playing their second game in four days, it was clear that the Mako had tired legs as they failed to keep up with the defending champions. Finding themselves down 3-20 inside the opening half hour, the Mako did well to claw the deficit back to 15-23 shortly after the break and then had another strong burst at the hour mark to make a real contest of the game, cutting Taranaki’s lead to 29-35, but the finishing touches weren’t able to be found as the Bulls scored to put the nail in the Mako’s coffin and end their Ranfurly Shield reign. Tasman had no shortage of chances to run up their score, but they were inefficient and uncharacteristically sloppy when deep in Taranaki’s half. Ethan Blackadder and David Havili were impressive and have been freed up by the All Blacks to play again this week, but Tasman’s lineout wasn’t working as intended and they will need to tidy up their ball retention now that it’s finals footy.
Canterbury saved their best performance of the season for their last game, blitzing Waikato 36-19 to secure their spot in the quarterfinals. A couple of tries inside the opening 20 minutes had Canterbury out to a 12-0 lead and despite a yellow card to George Bell shortly afterwards, the hosts never looked all that bothered by the Mooloos. A second-half hattrick to Issac Hutchinson was the cherry on top for Marty Bourke’s team, as they now gear up for a massive QF showdown with their rivals from Crusaders territory. Bell and Sam Darry return as the team’s All Blacks, alongside Fletcher Newell, ensuring an elite tight five for the visitors, and that will help them stay more than competitive with the Mako. Rameka Poihipi looked comfortable at first five-eighth, perhaps ending Canterbury’s #10 merry-go-round, and the breakdown effectiveness from the red and blacks will make for a very interesting game. Given an 8.5-point buffer, I expect the visitors to pose a real threat to the Mako and cover this line. They have covered three of their last four road games and Tasman have shown signs of shakiness late in the season, having covered just one of their last four outings.
Tips
Best: Canterbury +8.5 ($1.87)
Value: Tasman 1-12 ($2.70)