History
Wellington have dominated Bay Of Plenty in provincial rugby history, having won 32 of 40 encounters since they first met in 1920. The 80% win rate for the Lions is their second-best percentage against any team currently in the NPC, only behind their 80.6% win rate against Northland. Wellington have won three on the bounce against the Steamers, including a golden point thriller at the Cake Tin just over one month ago, and BOP’s last win in the capital was all the way back in 2010.
Form
Wellington finished the regular season on top of the table with an 8-2 record, edging out Taranaki for first place and that has seen them enjoy a run of home games in the finals, all the way through to this Saturday’s Final. There have been hot runs and there have been cold runs in the Lions’ season, and two defeats in three games late in their campaign threatened to derail their momentum. However, since then they have won three on the bounce, including a gritty win over Waikato in last week’s semifinal. It was a tit-for-tat battle at the Cake Tin, with both teams scoring two tries in the opening half to see the Mooloos lead 15-17 at the break. The Lions, however, were able to wrestle control of the game early in the second 40 as Du’Plessis Kirifi was massive in just his second game back from injury. Some timely breakdown turnover wins and some strong, direct runs gave his team the advantage that they needed to score the first two tries of the second half and that proved to be enough to see Wellington hold on for the win. The hosts were able to recycle quickly to put Waikato under defensive pressure and despite the Mooloos enjoying 55% possession, Wellington were more effective with their use of the ball, but their scrum faced a few issues. Brad Shields was everywhere defensively, as was Xavier Numia.
Bay Of Plenty booked their spot in the Final with an impressive 32-20 victory over Canterbury in Tauranga. The semifinal victory wasn’t easy for the Steamers, as they looked flat and outmatched in the first half to trail 8-13 as they headed into the sheds. However, a close-range try from Willis Halaholo in the opening minutes of the second stanza brought the hosts to life, as they scored the first 24 points of the second half. By the 72-minute mark, the score was 32-13 in BOP’s favour and their spot in the big dance was locked in. The Steamers’ backs provided plenty of thrills, with Reon Paul, Leroy Carter and Kaleb Trask getting busy. Defensively, it was an equally impressive game from the hosts, with Nikora Broughton again setting the tone for his team. Kurt Eklund, Jacob Norris and Joe Johnston followed suit as the BOP forwards combined for a polished showing, outside of some scrum struggles. After starting their season 2-2, it’s been a year of steady improvement for Richard Watt’s men.
Teams
Wellington: 1 Xavier Numia, 2 Leni Apisai, 3 Siale Lauaki, 4 Hugo Plummer, 5 Akira Iereima, 6 Caleb Delany, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 8 Brad Shields, 9 Kyle Preston, 10 Jackson Garden-Bachop, 11 Losi Filipo, 12 Riley Higgins, 13 Peter Umaga-Jensen, 14 Julian Savea, 15 Tjay Clarke. Reserves: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Yota Kamimori, 18 Bradley Crichton, 19 Teofilo Paulo, 20 Sione Halalilo, 21 Nui Muriwai, 22 Callum Harkin, 23 Stanley Solomon.
Bay Of Plenty: 1 Aidan Ross, 2 Kurt Eklund, 3 Benet Kumeroa, 4 Naitoa Ah Kuoi, 5 Aisake Vakasiuola, 6 Jacob Norris, 7 Joe Johnston, 8 Nikora Broughton, 9 Te Toiroa Tahuriorangi, 10 Kaleb Trask, 11 Reon Paku, 12 Willis Halaholo, 13 Emoni Narawa, 14 Leroy Carter, 15 Cole Forbes. Reserves: 16 Taine Kolose, 17 Josh Bartlett, 18 Filipe Vakasiuola, 19 Kalini Felise, 20 Semi Paea, 21 Lucas Cashmore, 22 Fehi Fineanganofo, 23 Cody Vai.
Stats That Matter
- Wellington cover 54% of their home games
- BOP cover 58% of their road games
- BOP are 2-3 ATS on the road this season
- BOP are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as underdogs
- Wellington are 5-8 ATS in their last 13 games as favourites
- Bay Of Plenty have covered three of their last four against Wellington
- The under is 8-2 in BOP’s last 10 games
The Verdict
Wellington entered the season as title favourites and are in prime position to meet those expectations, enjoying a home Final. Not everything has gone Wellington’s way in 2024 but their deep, talented squad has ensured that they have reached the finale with some clutch play throughout the season. Perhaps the most exciting team to watch in the competition, the Lions have scored a stack of great tries this season but they are up against a very good Steamers defence on Saturday. Having conceded the least points in the regular season and an average of just 19 points in the finals so far, this BOP team is an organised unit, especially in the forwards, and Wellington will struggle to deal with them up front. Both teams have had issues at scrum time of late, so whoever gains ascendency there will have an advantage on Saturday night, especially given that both back lines are capable of scoring from anywhere. That said, being a Final, I expect the game to be more structured than what we’re used to seeing from the Lions, and that may help the visitors’ chances. The sheer talent across this Wellington team should see the hosts lift the trophy after 80 minutes, but this one will go down to the wire.
The Prediction
Wellington by 2
Tips
Best Bet: Bay Of Plenty +4.5 ($1.85)
Value Bet: Wellington 1-12 ($2.60)
Anytime Try Scorer: Tjay Clarke ($2.55)