There is no bigger game on the slate this week – or perhaps in the 2024 NFL regular season – than the Super Bowl rematch with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs heading to San Fran to tackle Brock Purdy and the Niners.
The NFC North title will go a long way to being decided as well with the unbeaten Vikings hosting the Lions. There will be a big watch on the Steelers with a potential QB change mooted by coach Mike Tomlin.
Jacksonville -5.5 (v New England in London)
Drake Maye looked a lamb to the slaughter with his horrible o-line in his first start and favourites are 31-16 against the spread in the international series.
Cincinnati -5.5 (at Cleveland)
DeShaun Watson is 8-15-1 against the spread against teams scoring 24 or more points per game while Joe Burrow is 24-11 against the spread on the road.
Detroit +2.5 (at Minnesota)
Jared Goff is 29-10 against the spread indoors the last four seasons while he has covered 14 of 17 road games. The Lions have covered 21 of 30 as an outsider.
Las Vegas +6.5 (at LA Rams)
The Rams have underperformed on extended rest with McVay 0-8 against the spread in the spot while teams off consecutive 14-point losses are 5-0 against the number when playing a team off the bye.
Carolina have far more upside with Andy Dalton at quarterback. Washington are 13-40 against the spread when favoured by at least six points while big underdogs have a great record in 2024.
Under 36.5 New Orleans-Denver
The under hits at 73% when the total is 37 or under while the under is 16-5 in the last 21 Thursday Night Football games when there is a home underdog.
Under 43.5 Miami-Indianapolis
There is a huge under angle here with the under hitting at 75.6% when a road team is playing off a bye.
Under 51.5 Seattle-Atlanta
Games with totals north of 50 have seen the under hit at 71% the last three years while teams to open up with three wins and then three losses have seen the under go 12-4-1.
Under 36.5 New Orleans-Denver
The under hits at 73% when the total is 37 or under while the under is 16-5 in the last 21 Thursday Night Football games when there is a home underdog.
Pittsburgh +1.5 (v NY Jets)
Home teams off a win cover at 64% on Sunday Night Football while teams entering SNF off a loss cover at just 29%.
Under 50.5 Baltimore-Tampa Bay
Games with totals north of 50 have seen the under hit at 71% the last three years while the under is 17-3-1 when there is a home underdog on Monday Night Football.
Arizona +2.5 (v LA Chargers)
Kyler Murray is 27-17-2 against the spread as an underdog while this is a spot to bet against Jim Harbaugh with re-tread coaching covering at just 34% when favoured.
Detroit +2.5/Cincinnati -5.5/Under 43.5 Mia-Ind/Under 51.5 Sea-Atl ($11.75)
Detroit and Cincinnati are both among the best bets while the two under plays are among the best totals listed.
The Raiders are one of the best bets and happy to take the Panthers with the points after naming them as the best underdogs. The under hits at 75.6% when the road team is off the bye.
Jamieson Williams is having a breakout season. He has three touchdowns this year in five appearances while four of his five games have netted 75-plus yards.
Tank Bigsby has taken over the RB1 spot for the Jags and now has two TDs the last two weeks. Joe Mixon has three TDs in three games. Robinson has three TDs the last four games.
Joe Mixon has been a beast this year in limited opportunities with three touchdowns in three showings. Tank Dell has taken over the WR1 role from the injured Nico Collins and will see his opportunities increase. Jayden Reed has TDs in four of the five games he has at least six targets.