The semi finals presented an opportunity for an all American final. Sabalenka brought an end to that quickly with an incredible serving display in her win over Navarro. Whenever she was under pressure, she was able to find an ace or a big second serve. Navarro put up a huge fight but as Sabalenka mentioned in the interview following the match, she was able to handle the crowd much better than in her loss to Gauff in the final last year.
Her reward is a battle against another American after Pegula was able to come back from a set down to beat Muchova. She was completely outplayed in the opening set and after trailing by a set and a break it looked all over for her. Muchova’s game dipped and the consistency of Pegula saw her through. This will surprise many but it was the fourth time in as many matches that Pegula had more unforced errors than winners. A repeat of that will result in a heavy loss here as Sabalenka is at the peak of her powers on this surface.
Sabalenka had 34 winners in two sets against Navarro and did a fantastic job of coming in behind her shots to close out points. She won 14 of 17 points at net and the bulk of those were overhead smashes from right on top of the net. Expect a similar outcome here as Pegula has been content to sit on the baseline. The H2H reads 5-2 in Sabalenka’s favour but the gap between them is significant. Sabalenka has won 5 of the last 6 clashes and all five of her wins have been in straight sets. That includes a 6-3 7-5 win in Cincinnati a few weeks ago in a match where Sabalenka won 91% of 1st serve points. She was completely dominant on serve and the margin would have been bigger as Pegula converted the one and only break point opportunity that she was able to create. Sabalenka failed to convert a winning position in the final 12 months ago but will not be making the same mistake twice. She will win her first US Open title in style.
Tips:
Bet: Sabalenka -4.5 ($2.05)
Value: Set 1 Score after 2 Games Sabalenka 2-0 ($3.25)