Aryna Sabalenka broke American hearts last night when she defeated Pegula in the women’s final but the stars and stripes get another opportunity here with Taylor Fritz. He got the better of compatriot Frances Tiafoe in five sets but will have to defeat world number 1 Jannik Sinner if he is to claim his maiden major title and become the first American man to win a Grand Slam title since Andy Roddick in 2003.
Fritz has had the tougher draw of the two men and has defeated three former major finalists to get here – namely Berrettini, Ruud and Zverev. He has won a tournament-leading 62% of 2nd serve points and this is a critical statistic. Similarly, Sinner is not far behind in that department at 59% and in the warmer day conditions in his semi final against Draper was almost unbreakable. He won 74% of 2nd serve points in that match but the first two sets were very close 7-5 and 7-6. Fritz in 3-0 in breakers for the tournament and if he can get himself into one or two breakers, he will fancy his chances of claiming at least one.
This will be the third meeting between them and the H2H currently reads 1-1. Both clashes took place at Indian Wells on a similar court/conditions with Fritz winning the first encounter 6-4 6-3 in 2021. Two years later in 2023, it was Sinner who won a tight three set battle. Sinner has improved several aspects of his game since including point construction. He will be the more willing of the two when it comes to venturing to net and will force Fritz to find a way past him. The backhand pass is one of the weak points of the Fritz game so look for Sinner to attack that wing. Both men have covered the games handicap line in each of their last 5 matches leading into this one but have to be with Sinner here. Has another gear to go to with his groundstrokes, is the better defensive player and has more tools in his arsenal with respect to moving to net and serve/volley. Fritz will have to serve huge to be any chance and doesn’t have a plan B is this doesn’t eventuate.
Tips:
Best: Sinner -4.5 ($1.75)
Other: Set 1 Total Games 11 or more ($2.70)
Value: Set 1 Correct Score Sinner 7-6 ($5.25)