History
The history between Australia and New Zealand in international rugby is long and storied. Dating back to their first encounter in 1903, these two nations have faced off on 177 occasions, with the All Blacks having won 124 and Australia having won 45. There have also been eight draws. In Australia, the hosts have won 28 of 89 and there have been six draws. At Accor Stadium, the All Blacks hold an 11-7-1 advantage, having won the last four games played there.
Form
Australia’s last outing could hardly have gone worse, falling to Argentina 27-67. The puzzling part for the Wallabies is that they led 20-3 at the 29-minute mark, with early tries to Carlo Tizzano and Andrew Kellaway getting them off to a flying start. However, it was all aggressively downhill from there, as they conceded 64 points in the following 50 minutes to record a record defeat against a team that they beat the week prior. Now 1-3 in The Rugby Championship, the Wallabies are out of title contention.
New Zealand are also without a chance of defending their Rugby Championship crown following their most recent defeat against South Africa. The 12-18 loss in Cape Town saw another frustrating finish from Scott Robertson’s men, as they recorded just three points in the second half, failing to match the depth and the stacked bench of the South Africans. Also failing to score a try, there are some danger signs coming from All Blacks HQ.
Teams
Australia: 1 Angus Bell, 2 Matt Faessler, 3 Taniela Tupou, 4 Nick Frost, 5 Jeremy Williams, 6 Rob Valetini, 7 Fraser McReight, 8 Harry Wilson, 9 Nic White, 10 Noah Lolesio, 11 Marika Koroibete, 12 Hunter Paisami, 13 Len Ikitau, 14 Andrew Kellaway, 15 Tom Wright. Reserves: 16 Brandon Paenga-Amosa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Allan Alaalatoa, 19 Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, 20 Langi Gleeson, 21 Tate McDermott, 22 Tom Lynagh, 23 Dylan Pietsch.
New Zealand: 1 Ethan de Groot, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 4 Scott Barrett, 5 Tupou Vaa’i, 6 Wallace Sititi, 7 Sam Cane, 8 Ardie Savea, 9 Cortez Ratima, 10 Damian McKenzie, 11 Caleb Clarke, 12 Jordie Barrett, 13 Rieko Ioane, 14 Will Jordan, 15 Beauden Barrett. Reserves: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Tamaiti Williams, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Sam Darry, 20 Luke Jacobson, 21 TJ Perenara, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Sevu Reece.
Joe Schmidt has made a host of changes to his 23 that was demolished two weeks ago. Fraser McReight returns from injury to replace Carlo Tizzano, Nic White comes in for Jake Gordon at halfback, Noah Lolesio comes into the #10 jersey again for Ben Donaldson and Hunter Paisami has recovered from a knee injury to start at second five-eighth in place of Hamish Stewart. Brandon Paenga-Amosa also makes his first Wallabies appearance of the season off the bench.
Scott Robertson has made several changes from the 23 that fell to the Springboks in Cape Town, bringing Ethan de Groot back in at loosehead prop in place of Tamaiti Williams, who replaces Ofa Tu’ungafasi on the bench. Pasilio Tosi is also in line for his second cap, being named on the bench for Fletcher Newell, while Caleb Clarke rejoins the starting XV for Mark Tele’a. Will Jordan returns to the right wing, seeing Beauden Barrett start at fullback.
Stats That Matter
- Australia have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games
- New Zealand are 3-5 ATS in their last eight games
- The under is 5-3 in New Zealand’s last eight games
- The under has hit in the last three games between these teams
The Verdict
The first Bledisloe Cup game of the season is upon us, as Sydney hosts a rare Saturday afternoon Test match. It’s been a turbulent few years for the Wallabies and that rollercoaster ride has continued into 2024, with their two games in Argentina being the perfect reflection of that. A dramatic win in the first matchup turned into a 27-67 blowout defeat the week after, but there is finally some quality across the park in the Wallabies 23 that Joe Schmidt has named this week. That’s not to say that the Australians match up well with the All Blacks, but the positive trajectory that their scrum has been on, tied in with an evolving loosies trio and a couple of key returns in the backline have this Wallabies team looking as good as it has all year. The All Blacks will still dominate for periods and I can’t see the Wallabies winning this game, but we’ve seen some close encounters between these teams across the ditch in recent years, including two-point wins for NZ in 2023 and 2020, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the final margin be in single digits.
The Prediction
New Zealand by 9
Tips:
Best: Australia +14.5 ($1.87)
Value: New Zealand 1-10 ($3.30)
Anytime Try Scorer: Marika Koroibete ($2.60)
History
The international rugby history between Argentina and South Africa is relatively brief, with the first match coming in 1993. In all, there have been 36 games played between the two countries, and the Springboks have dominated, having won 32 of which. The Pumas have just three wins to their name, while there was one draw recorded in 2012. South Africa have won the last eight matchups.
Form
Argentina produced one of their best performances in recent memory last week, blitzing Australia 67-27 in an historic win. After trailing 3-20 at the 29-minute mark, all signs were pointing towards another win for the Wallabies but the Pumas pulled off an incredible reversal from the 30-minute mark, scoring eight tries in the following 50 minutes to thump their Australian foes. It became a walk in the park for the hosts, scoring at will, especially in the final 10 minutes of play to really blow the score out. Now 2-2, the Pumas need to win their final two games if they are to win their first-ever Rugby Championship.
South Africa’s dominance over the competition continued last week with a 18-12 triumph against New Zealand. It followed a similar pattern to the prior week’s game, in that the bench of the Springboks simply outplayed their All Blacks counterparts, sealing the win with some solid late play. Most encouragingly for South Africa, they didn’t concede a single try last week, as their defence and game control impressed yet again. One more win in TRC will secure the title for Rassie Erasmus’ men.
Teams
Argentina: 1 Thomas Gallo, 2 Julian Montoya, 3 Joel Sclavi, 4 Franco Molina, 5 Pedro Rubiolo, 6 Pablo Matera, 7 Marcos Kremer, 8 Joaquin Oviedo, 9 Gonzalo Bertranou, 10 Tomas Albornoz, 11 Mateo Carreras, 12 Santiago Chocobares, 13 Lucio Cinti, 14 Bautista Delguy, 15 Juan Cruz Mallía. Reserves: 16 Ignacio Ruiz, 17 Ignacio Calles, 18 Pedro Delgado, 19 Guido Petti, 20 Juan Martin Gonzalez, 21 Gonzalo García, 22 Santiago Carreras, 23 Matías Moroni.
South Africa: 1 Ox Nche, 2 Malcolm Marx, 3 Thomas du Toit, 4 Salmaan Moerat, 5 Ruan Nortje, 6 Marco van Staden, 7 Ben-Jason Dixon, 8 Jasper Wiese, 9 Cobus Reinach, 10 Handre Pollard, 11 Makazole Mapimpi, 12 Lukhanyo Am, 13 Jesse Kriel, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 15 Aphelele Fassi. Reserves: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Vincent Koch, 19 Eben Etzebeth, 20 Elrigh Louw, 21 Kwagga Smith, 22 Jaden Hendrikse, 23 Manie Libbok.
Felipe Contepomi has made several changes to his 23, starting in a complete shift in the second row, with Franco Molina and Pedro Rubiolo coming in for Guido Petti and Tomás Lavanini. Joaquin Oviedo replaces Juan Martín González at the back of the scrum, alongside a few personnel changes on the bench.
The Springboks have made 10 changes to their starting XV, starting with Malcolm Marx coming in for Bongi Mbonambi at hooker. Among other key changes, Eben Etzebeth moves to the bench, and Salmaan Moerat starts in his place, while usual skipper Siya Kolisi is replaced by Marco van Staden and Ben-Jason Dixon takes Pieter-Steph du Toit’s spot. Cobus Reinach. comes in at halfback and a new back three of Makazole Mapimpi, Kurt-Lee Arendse and Aphelele Fassi will start.
Stats That Matter
- Argentina have covered just two of their last seven home games
- South Africa are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games
- South Africa have covered six of their last eight games against Argentina
- The under is 5-2 in the last seven games between these two nations
The Verdict
The Springboks can claim their first full-scale Rugby Championship trophy with a win in Santiago del Estero, and they’re heavy favourites to do so. Rassie Erasmus is backing the depth of the squad in this game, resting the likes of Siya Kolisi, Cheslin Kolbe, Damian de Allende and Pieter-Steph du Toit and starting some inexperienced players, such as the locking combination of Salmaan Moerat and Ruan Nortje. That’s somewhat of a risky play as they take on a red-hot Pumas team in Argentina, but the hosts will need to be at the top of their game if they are to record an upset. That said, they are more than capable of really challenging this Springboks 23 and I expect this game to be a low-scoring arm wrestle. That increases the likeliness of this game being close at the end of 80 minutes, and the 10.5-point start that the Pumas are getting is appealing value in this spot.
The Prediction
South Africa by 7
Tips
Best: Argentina +10.5 ($1.80)
Value: South Africa 1-12 ($2.70)