Evan Psarras previews every game in Week 2 of the 2024 NRL Premiership Finals as we count down to the 2024 NRL Grand Final!
The Cowboys trailed 12-4 at half time last week but with the game in the balance managed to score two tries in the final 10 minutes to account for the Knights. They now head to Sydney to face a Sharks side that was beaten up by the Storm in the second half. The Storm scored 23 unanswered points in the second half and are at risk of yet another straight sets exit. Jesse Ramien returns to the side after missing out last week (ankle) pushing Talakai to the bench. Good news for the visiting side with coach Todd Payten naming the same 17 that got the job done against the Knights.
Head To Head:
With 10 wins in the last 12 meetings history tells us that the Sharks have dominated this series. The Cowboys will not be phased as their two wins in that period were arguably the most important. They were 32-30 winners in their most recent finals clash in 2022 and 30-22 victors the last time they met in Round 21. The away team have won 4 of the last 7 encounters but the Sharks have tasted victory in 5 of the last 6 as the home side. The Over hit in both of their regular season clashes this year and is 4-0 in the last 4 hosted by the Sharks.
Stats That Matter:
A 6-3 record both straight up and at the line in their last 9 following a loss suggests that the Sharks can bounce back following a heavy defeat to the Storm. The recent form of the Cowboys has been excellent. Not only have they won 7 of their last 8 overall, but they have also won their last 6 away games and are 5-0 at the line in their last 5 road fixtures. In addition to this, the Cowboys have won 4 of their last 5 as an away underdog which includes wins over the Panthers and Roosters. The key to their success on the road has been putting points on the board. They have scored 34 or more points in 5 away games this season and have averaged 31.3ppg in their last 6 road games. The Over has hit in 67% of their away games in the last year and has also hit in each of the Sharks last 4 games leading into this one.
Prediction:
It was a case of the same old Sharks last week as they gave away 8 penalties and made a dozen errors. It translated to 41% possession, and they were forced to make 497 tackles which was 213 more than the Storm! Recovering from that will not be easy and it is hard to put any trust in Nicho Hynes whose confidence has been shot to bits. The Sharks have lost 7 consecutive finals games, and it is hard to see them holding out the Cowboys attack. Finals games are about winning the key moments and cannot remember the last time the Sharks were able to do so.
Sharks v Cowboys Tips:
Best Bet: Cowboys +4.5 ($1.83)
Same Game Multi: Cowboys WIN, Over 45.5 points, Feldt Anytime Tryscorer ($5.43)
The Roosters and all NRL fans were provided with a reminder last week that the Panthers are a different beast in the finals. They trailed 24-0 at half time and cannot afford another slow start here. The Sea Eagles trailed for the better part of 70 minutes against the Bulldogs, but their big names came up clutch with the game on the line. That includes Tom Trbojevic who will be needled up again to deal with shoulder pain. Waerea-Hargreaves is back on deck after serving his suspension joining a prop rotation that includes Leniu and Tyrell May.
Head To Head:
Home ground advantage has been a real feature in this matchup in recent years with the home team winning 7 of the last 8 meetings. The Roosters are seeking a 5th consecutive as the home team in this series, but history tells us there will be very little between them. The last five clashes have been decided by 10 or fewer points with an average margin of 6.6 points in those games. The Roosters led 22-0 in their most recent clash in Round 21, but the Sea Eagles almost reeled them in after scoring 4 of the last 5 tries. The trio of Tedesco, Young and Talau have crossed for tries in both prior meetings this season for their respective sides. The tricolours have notably won 9 of the last 13 battles as a home favourite.
Stats That Matter:
Statistically, there is no better time to back the Roosters than following a defeat. They have won 8 of their last 9 on the back of a loss and have been successful at the line in 67% of those games. The Over has hit in 7 of those 9 games which is comparable to the Sea Eagles 10-4 Over record in games following a win in the last year. Across the board, all the data surrounding the Eagles points to a high scoring contest. The Over is 4-0 in their last 4 and has saluted in 10 of their last 13 away games including each of their last 5. The Roosters have won 70% of games as a home favourite in the last year but will be aware that the Sea Eagles have won 4 of their last 6 away games including their last two. Tommy Talau has scored a try in 6 of his last 8 for the Sea Eagles while Tedesco has 5 tries and 8 try assists in his last 5.
Prediction:
The Roosters were blown off the park in the opening 20 minutes last week and have consistently struggled to respond in ‘big games’. They have failed to make it past the second week of the finals since their last premiership success (2019) and have compiled a 2-6 record in their last 8 finals games. Moreover, their two wins in that stretch both came by a single point. Their attack has lacked cohesion in recent weeks in the absence of key spine players and could prove costly in pivotal moments in this match. Expecting the experience of Cherry-Evans to be a factor late in this contest and fancy the Sea Eagles to cause an upset.
Roosters v Sea Eagles Tips:
Best Bet: Sea Eagles +2.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Over 46.5 points, Tedesco Anytime Tryscorer, Talau Anytime Tryscorer ($6.39)