NRL Tips & Preview | Finals Week 1

Finals footy has arrived and we kick things off with two familiar foes locking horns. The Roosters had the opportunity of hosting this game but an upset loss to the Raiders a fortnight ago placed the Panthers back in control of their own destiny. They closed out the regular season with wins over the Rabbitohs and Titans but in the last month, have been a shadow of the side that has won the last three premierships. Injuries have been the biggest issue for both teams in the tail end of the season. The Roosters rested both wingers last week (Young and Tupou) but the visitors will be without the trio of Walker, Radley and Smith. The big news for the Panthers is the return of Nathan Cleary who’s kicking game is pivotal to their success.

Head To Head:
Despite an extended period of success for both teams in the last decade, this is the first time they will meet in the finals since 2020. Like their upcoming clash, that meeting took place in Week 1 of the finals on a Friday night at Blue Bet Stadium. The Panthers won a thriller 29-28 and have dominated this series since with wins in the last 9 meetings. Dating further back the Panthers have won 8 straight as a home favourite in this series with the Over hitting in each of the last four. The Panthers were 22-16 winners in their only regular season meeting this year with Turuva scoring a hat-trick. The other notable tryscorer is Dyland Edwards who has scored a try in each of his last three against the Roosters.

Stats That Matter:
The Panthers have failed to cover the line in their last 7 games at BlueBet Stadium when coming off a win. A 26% success rate at the line on the back of a win in the last year raises further concern but they have managed to score the opening try in each of their last 6 games against the Roosters. The Under is 3-0 in the Panthers last 3 games leading into this one which lines up nicely with the Roosters 4-0 Under record in their last 4 finals games. The key to the Panthers success in September has been defence and they have held their last 10 finals opponents to an average of only 10.6ppg. The Grand Final win over the Broncos last season was the one and only time in that stretch of games that they conceded more than 16 points!

Prediction:
When it comes to finals footy, the Panthers morph into a different beast. Time and time again in the last 3+ years they have been able to rely on defence in big matches. Their line speed is relentless, they defend as a unit across the park, and the kicking game of Nathan Cleary allows them to build pressure by constantly forcing teams to come off their own line. Expect to see nothing different in this one and with the Roosters void of several key spine players, they will find it difficult to utilise their attacking weapons out wide. The Panthers defence will carry them to yet another preliminary final.

Tips:
Best Bet: Under 41.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Panthers 1-12, 21-30 Total Match Points, Turuva Anytime Tryscorer ($24.95)

The Storm had the minor premiership locked up weeks ago but last week’s trip to Brisbane was about sending out a message to the rest of the competition. They destroyed the Broncos 50-12 with the duo of Jahrome Hughes and Will Warbrick both scoring hat-tricks. In a further boost for Craig Bellamy, Ryan Papenhuyzen makes a timely return after his replacement last week (Faalogo) went off early with a hamstring complaint. The Sharks are coming off a big win over the Sea Eagles, but it did come at a price with Hazelton unavailable for this game.

Head To Head:
With only five regular season losses, the Storm were a dominant force this season. They lost only twice at home this season, but the Sharks were one of only two teams (Dragons) to beat them at AAMI Park. What was most impressive about the Sharks 25-18 win in Round 10 was that they did it without Hynes or Trindall. Nevertheless, the Storm have won 6 of the last 8 meetings between the two sides and have successfully covered the line in 9 of the last 13 as a home favourite in this series. The Over is 5-0 in the last 5 clashes hosted by the Storm with an average of 53.8 total match points across those games.

Stats That Matter:
A 9-2 record in their last 11 as a home favourite suggests the Storm will be hard to beat but from a betting perspective, they have covered the line successfully on 3 times in those games (27%). They now take on one of the most dangerous road teams in the NRL. The Sharks are 3-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 away games but it is their performance as the outsider which is of most interest. They have won 5 of their last 6 overall as the underdog which includes a 4-1 record (straight up and at the line) as an away underdog in the last year. Both teams have historically been renowned for their defence but have found themselves in high scoring battles recently with the Over hitting in Melbourne’s last 4 games and the last 3 for the Sharks heading into this one. The big question mark for the visitors is their recent finals record which reads 0-6 in their last 6. Making a fast start will be crucial but the Storm have notably scored the opening try in 8 straight games at AAMI Park.

Prediction:
As a big underdog and one of the select few to have beaten the Storm in Melbourne this season, the Sharks can play as a side with nothing to lose. It is when they have been most dangerous and have two assets that can make them a tricky matchup for the Storm – a pack capable of dominating through the middle and size/speed out wide. The biggest concern for the visitors will be penalties and errors – the two things that have plagued them in recent seasons. Only the Roosters have conceded more penalties than the Sharks who have also made the 6th most errors so far in 2024. That will place them under pressure, and they will have to chase the game creating an open contest. Overs.

Tips:
Best Bet: Over 44.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Sharks +14.5, Warbrick Anytime Tryscorer, Iro Anytime Tryscorer ($12.01)

Finals footy is about finding form at the right time and the Cowboys are on the right path. They have won 6 of their last 7 and the 44-6 thumping over the Bulldogs last week has earned them a home final in an elimination game. The Knights are no strangers to an elimination game after winning a do-or-die battle against the Dolphins in the final game of the regular season. The return of McLean for the Cowboys means they are at full strength, and it is a similar case for the Knights with Jacob Saifiti and Pearce-Paul back on deck.

Head To Head:
Home ground advantage has been a huge factor in this matchup for an extended period. The home team has won the last 11 meetings overall and it has been almost a decade since the Knights last won in Townsville. The Cowboys have won 8 in a row at home to the Knights and 12 of the last 14 as a home favourite. With respect to total match points, the Under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings and has held on in 7 of the last 11 clashes hosted by the Cowboys. The two names to stick out in the tryscorer markets are Feldt and Dearden as both have scored a try in each of the last three meetings between these two sides.

Stats That Matter:
This looms as a classic case of attack versus defence. The Cowboys ranked 3rd in points scored (657) for the regular season while the Knights ranked LAST in tries scored. That’s right, they scored fewer tries than the Tigers and their total of 80 tries with 32 less than the Cowboys (112). The Over has hit in 67% of Cowboys home games in the last year and an average of 60.4 total match points across their last 5 games is not a surprise. The Knights have held their last 5 opponents to 14.2ppg but they must find a way to slow down a Cowboys side that has scored 30+ points in 5 of their last 6. The Knights have been victorious in only 1 of their last 8 as a road underdog but have managed to cover the line in 6 of those games (75%). They also covered the line in their final 6 games played to close out the regular season.

Prediction:
Cannot underestimate the importance of the location of this game as it will have significant bearing on how it is played out. Had it been played in Newcastle, the Knights would have had a higher chance of turning it into a defensive battle. On a fast/dry track with temperatures in the high 20s, they will not be able to achieve this in Townsville. The Over has hit in each of the Knights last 5 finals games and that trend will continue here. Kyle Feldt has scored 11 tries in his last 6 games including a double in each of his last three.

Tips:
Best Bet: Over 43.5 points ($1.83)
Same Game Multi: Cowboys WIN, Feldt Anytime Tryscorer, Marzhew Anytime Tryscorer, 2nd Half Over 23.5 points ($8.23)

There were more twists and turns in the last few weeks of the NRL regular season than a Formula 1 racetrack. Heading into last week the Bulldogs were under the impression that they needed to beat the Cowboys if they were to host a home final but despite losing handily (44-6), the Sea Eagles 40-20 loss at home to the Sharks means that this game will take place at Accor Stadium and not 4 Pines Park on the northern beaches. It is not often we see two teams in the finals coming off a 20-point loss, but they will roll out very different sides this week. Burton and Xerri will line-up for the Bulldogs with Skelton to replace Ado-Carr who has stood himself down to allow his teammates to focus on the game. The big news for the Sea Eagles and all NRL fans surrounds Tom Trbojevic who will thankfully be wearing the no.1 jersey.

Head To Head:
These two sides faced off at Accor Stadium a few weeks ago in Round 25 with the Sea Eagles posting a comfortable 34-22 win. The victory was more dominant than the scoreboard suggests as the Bulldogs scored two late tries. This has been a bad matchup for the Bulldogs for some time with the Sea Eagles winning 10 of the last 11 meetings including each of the last three. The Eagles are 5-0 at the line in the last 5 games as the road team in this series and have dominated from pillar to post. They have tallied 30+ points in 7 of their last 10 against the Bulldogs and the player that has led the way is Tom Trbojevic. He has scored at least one try in 8 straight games against the Bulldogs and a total of 15 tries in those games.

Stats That Matter:
The Sea Eagles have won 5 in a row following a loss and dating further back have been successful at the line in 7 of their last 9 after a defeat. The bookies have not been able to split them but the Sea Eagles will not mind being the outsider in betting as they have posted a 9-3 line record in the last year as the underdog. Similarly, the Bulldogs have won their last 3 as a home underdog but will need to find their defensive prowess if they are to progress. They conceded more points in their last two losses (78) than they did during the 5-game win streak (72) preceding that. A 10-2 home record this season (equal best with Storm) and a bumper crowd of 50,000+ suggests that they can turn things around.

Prediction:
With Tom Trbojevic back on deck, cannot look past the Sea Eagles in this one. At a minimum, they have the two best players in this contest (Tom Trbojevic and Cherry-Evans) and both are in key spine positions. The visitors also have a significant size advantage in the forwards and as we have seen throughout the season, the Bulldogs will rely heavily on yardage from their backs – especially Kiraz, Tracey and Skelton. If the Bulldogs fail to take an early lead it is hard to see them being successful playing catch-up footy.

Tips:
Best Bet: Sea Eagles WIN ($1.87)
Same Game Multi: Manly +6.5, Tom Trbojevic Anytime Tryscorer, Kiraz Anytime Tryscorer ($6.07)