Taranaki may be peaking at the right end of the season if Friday night’s 63-19 demolition of Hawke’s Bay is anything to go by. A 20-33 defeat to Bay Of Plenty the week prior led to some concern about the defending champions, but they blew those doubts out of the water in Napier last week with a magical display. As Bradley Slater and Vereniki Tikoisolomone crossed for the first two tries of the evening, there were promising early signs for the Bulls, but the hosts hit back with two of their own to bring the score back to 14-12. However, it was all the ‘Naki from there, as Kini Naholo finished the game with a hattrick on the back of a dominant all-round display from this Taranaki team. Brayton Northcott-Hill and Ethan Reti were dangerous, the Bulls’ set piece operated efficiently and the team defended with vigour, helping them shut down a Magpies team that enjoyed 59% possession. Neil Barnes isn’t playing around on Wednesday night, having named a full-strength team, meaning another win is expected of Taranaki.
North Harbour are now outside of the top eight after a disappointing 24-47 defeat against Northland last week. Rolling out most of their big guns, it was assumed that Harbour would take care of business in Whangārei, but instead they were blown out of the water in a lacklustre second half. A try to Shilo Klein minutes before halftime meant that Harbour only went into the sheds trailing 12-14, but that was as close as they would get, as the Taniwha blitzed them in the second half, scoring five tries in the period as the visitors struggled to turn their chances into points and looked without inspiration on attack. However, it was their defence that let them down the most, not putting any pressure on at the breakdown and letting the hosts recycle at rapid pace, resulting in a steady flow of attack. Ultimately, Harbour couldn’t keep up with the Taniwha and that’s concerning heading into Wednesday night’s clash. With Ben Afeaki having named a weakened XV, with the likes of Bryn Hall and Shaun Stevenson on the bench, this Harbour team will be no match for the hosts. North Harbour are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine games, while Taranaki have covered six of their last nine as favourites.
Tips:
Best: Taranaki -11.5 ($1.85)
Value: Power Plays — Kini Naholo 1st OR 2nd Try Scorer & Taranaki Win 13+ ($7.00)
It’s been a rough couple of weeks for Hawke’s Bay, first losing the Ranfurly Shield in heartbreaking fashion against Tasman before getting thumped 5-50 against Waikato last week. The Magpies didn’t let themselves down in their attempted Shield defence, almost beating a very good Mako team, but they will be gutted with their performance in Hamilton last Saturday. After conceding two tries in the opening 10 minutes, Hawke’s Bay let their heads drop and the onslaught continued throughout the first half, with the Mooloos running in five tries in the opening 40 minutes for a 36-5 lead at the break. It was game over at that point, and a rather dull second half played out in what was nothing short of a gross showing from Hawke’s Bay. They conceded a mindblowing 29 turnovers and were absent of their usual attacking flair and ambition, resulting in their worst performance in years. Perhaps the toll of holding the Ranfurly Shield finally caught up to them, but I see this performance as a small blip in their season and they will be thrilled to be returning back home for the start of Round 7.
Taranaki also looked like they were in line for a blowout defeat on Saturday but scored a couple of consolation tries to record a 20-33 defeat against Bay Of Plenty. The Steamers were red-hot early in the second half and ran away for a 33-10 lead, but Vereniki Tikoisolomone and Kini Naholo crossed the line in the final minutes to make it a somewhat respectable scoreline for the Bulls as they suffered their second defeat of the season. After snatching victory from the jaws of defeat against Waikato the week prior, it’s fair to say it’s been a shaky fortnight for the defending champions, and their inability to convert their chances is becoming concerning. Taranaki gave themselves plenty of opportunities against BOP but often couldn’t turn those chances into points, despite the best efforts of the likes of Naholo, Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens and Ricky Riccitelli. This Taranaki team simply isn’t at the level that they need to be at, and that will see another loss come their way on Friday night. The Magpies cover 58% of their home games and Taranaki have failed to cover their last three matches.
Hawke’s Bay v Taranaki Tips:
Best: Hawke’s Bay -1.5 ($1.87)
Value: Hawke’s Bay 1-12 ($2.80)
Northland gave Auckland a real scare last week but weren’t able to get the job done, falling short 17-24 at home. Picking up a couple of yellow cards in the game, the Taniwha had to overcome some hurdles and as they faced a 5-24 deficit midway through the second half, it looked like they were on the way to a heavy defeat. However, two quick tries to Rob Rush and Quinton Nichols got Northland within seven points and Rivez Reihana looked to have scored a potential game-tying try after the hooter, only for it to be overturned after it was revealed that he lost possession in the process. It was a tough break for the Taniwha, who defended staunchly and had the better of the set piece, but their lapses early in the piece gave them a hole that was too big to get themselves out of.
North Harbour provided their best performance of the season last week, routing Manawatū for a 58-19 victory. It was a near-flawless performance from the men from the North Shore, breaking the Turbos’ line almost at will and dominating the breakdown, as Tane Edmed recorded his best game since crossing the Tasman Sea, with a 31-point performance. Kade Banks also kept up his great try scoring record for the season, adding another two tries to bring his season tally up to 10, but such a dominant performance against a well below-par team doesn’t give us a lot of insight for the upcoming game. In the two games prior, Harbour shuddered a four-point loss to Auckland and a three-point loss to Counties, and I expect another similarly close game on Saturday. Northland have been plucky this season and seldom
Northland v North Harbour Tips:
Best: Northland +9.5 ($1.90)
Value: North Harbour 1-12 ($2.70)
Canterbury have recorded back-to-back wins for the first time since Round 3 last year, thanks to a 41-29 victory over Southland last Friday. The win did not come easily, opening the door for the Stags in the final 15 minutes, as Viliami Fine dotted down to bring Southland within seven points of the red and blacks, but a try to Ryan Crotty in the 73rd minute all but sealed the win for the Cantabrians, lifting them to seventh on the ladder at 4-3. They’ll still want to improve on that position, but now with some form under their belt, they will be backing themselves for a hot end to the regular season. Billy Harmon has been at the forefront of the Cantabrians’ charge, while Ngane Punivai continued his strong form with another double and Tom Christie had a busy defensive game, as usual.
Counties Manukau have won three on the trot for the first time since at least 2018, with a thumping 45-17 win against Otago on Sunday sending a real statement to the wider NPC. While this Counties team isn’t loaded with big names or a slew of Super Rugby talent, they have steadily grown as the season has gone on under the coaching of Reon Graham and Sunday’s performance was the culmination of all of these improvements. The seven-try performance was Counties’ best showing of the season, as Peniasi Malimali carried relentlessly, Etene Nanai-Seturo had his usual moments of magic, Adam Brash made his presence felt and Hoskins Sotutu rolled up his sleeves defensively. They played with real ambition and it’s now clear that the Steelers are no easy-beats. The bookies don’t agree, installing them as 14.5-point underdogs, and there’s value to be had in the visitors here. Canterbury are just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games and Counties have covered four of their last five.
Canterbury v Counties Manukau Tips:
Best: Counties Manukau +14.5 ($1.87)
Value: Canterbury 1-12 ($3.00)
Wellington suffered their first defeat of the season and, in a double-blow, also missed their chance at regaining the Ranfurly Shield in the 15-28 defeat to Tasman. It was a strangely flat performance from the Wellingtonians, as they struggled to penetrate the Mako’s defence and were lacking their finishing touch for one of the first times this season. There were some great moments, such as the tries from Tjay Clarke and Riley Higgins, but they couldn’t match the brilliance that the Mako threw at them, forcing the Lions to taste defeat for the first time in 2024. Caleb Delany was a menace at lineout time, helping Wellington gain ascendency there, but the Wellington scrum didn’t hold up and ball retention was a real issue. Peter Lakai gave another inspired performance and Higgins was impressive, but Wellington will be forced to be on top of their game when they host Bay Of Plenty on Saturday.
Bay Of Plenty have rediscovered their form, backing up a 54-point demolition of Manawatū with a 33-20 win over Taranaki last week. After Joe Johnston scored another try to open up the scoring, and Naitoa Ah Kuoi followed suit 10 minutes later, the Steamers ran out to an early 14-3 lead and another quick start to the second half gave them what was an unassailable 33-10 lead an hour in. BOP were ruthless with their chances, helping record what was a relatively comfortable victory, despite the Bulls getting deep into BOP territory on many occasions. Nikora Broughton was immense once again, as was Emoni Narawa, while Johnston showed that he was much more than just a try-scorer with a massive defensive effort. This BOP team is ticking over nicely at the moment and they can really trouble Wellington with their dynamism in their pack and their threats out wide, making the 9.5-point line look large. BOP have covered five of seven games this season and Wellington are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
Wellington v Bay Of Plenty Tips:
Best: Bay Of Plenty +9.5 ($1.82)
Value: Wellington 1-12 ($2.90)
Waikato last week produced their best performance since their title-winning team in 2021, thrashing Hawke’s Bay 50-5. It was utter domination at Waikato Stadium almost from the opening whistle, as D’Angelo Leuila recorded a first half hattrick to get the Mooloos out to a 36-5 halftime lead. The Samoan international finished the game with four of Waikato’s seven tries, producing a masterful attacking performance from the first five-eighth position. Quinn Tupaea added plenty with his trademark powerful runs making regular dents in the Magpies’ defence, and the ever-reliable Laghlan McWhannell and Luke Jacobson were industrious, proving that Waikato are a team to keep an eye on as we near the pointy end of the season.
One team who may well go all the way is Tasman. The only undefeated team remaining in the competition, the Mako have been a real force in 2024 and they flexed their collective muscles once more last week with a 28-15 win over Wellington to record their first successful defence of the Ranfurly Shield. The 13-point margin was probably flattering for the hosts, but there is little denying that they deserved the win, controlling much of the flow of the game and generally getting into more promising attacking positions than the Lions. There were some serious lineout concerns for the Mako, but outside of that, their forwards outplayed a very good Wellington pack and the destructive Timoci Tavatavanawai and Levi Aumua had excellent games once more to anchor the back line. This Mako team is looking very hard to beat, but on the road and taking on a well-drilled Mooloos team, they will find life very hard on Sunday afternoon. I’m not calling a Waikato upset here, but I wouldn’t be all that surprised to see them win, making the 5.5 points that they are getting appealing value. Waikato have covered four straight and Tasman have lost and failed to cover their last two games against Waikato.
Waikato v Tasman Tips:
Best: Waikato +5.5 ($1.85)
Value: Tasman 1-12 ($2.80)
Auckland have won two on the trot to try and kickstart their season after a dismal beginning to their campaign. Following their 0-4 start, the Aucklanders broke their duck in the Battle of the Bridge two weeks ago and made it two-straight last Sunday with a 24-17 win over Northland. It wasn’t exactly smooth sailing for Craig McGrath’s troops, as Rivez Reihana almost forced the game to golden point, only to spill the ball over the line, but the opening hour will be where Auckland will be drawing inspiration from. The blue and whites dominated, scoring four tries as their big names stood up to the challenge, with Patrick Tuipulotu and Bryce Heem scoring early in the second half. Xavi Taele was dangerous while Adrian Chote proved to be the defensive enforcer, including forcing the fumble from Reihana at the death to seal the win for his team.
Southland are in the middle of a tough storm week, and their performance on Wednesday night did them no favours as they fell to Manawatū 21-26. All was looking good for the Stags, who started the game as favourites for the first time in over a year, as Viliami Fine crossed for the only try in the first half before Michael Manson scored the second half’s first try for a 14-0 Southland lead. However, the Stags couldn’t hold on, conceding 26 points in the final 25 minutes. They weren’t helped by a red card to Fine, who was sent off for a somewhat unfortunate high shot, and the one-man disadvantage made it too tough for the visitors. It was a strangely flat performance from the Southerners and they simply didn’t give themselves enough scoring opportunities to pick up a win that they would have been expecting. They now have the tough task of backing up with a game four days later in Auckland, and with a second-string squad likely to be announced by co-coaches James Wilson and Matt Saunders, there’s real value in the hosts. The Stags have covered just one of their last five games and Auckland have covered three of their last four against Southland.
Auckland v Southland Tips:
Best: Auckland -17.5 ($1.87)
Value: Auckland 21-30 ($3.40)
Otago were awful against Counties Manukau last Sunday, with their storm week struggles catching up to them as they fell 17-45. After a tough Wednesday defeat against Wellington in Dunedin, it was clear that this Otago team had little fuel in the tank in Pukekohe, falling behind early, as the Steelers ran in the game’s first three tries, and as Otago stared down a 10-28 halftime deficit, it was evident that the result had already been decided. Now 2-5 on the season, the men from Dunedin need to finish the season strongly to guarantee themselves a spot in the finals, and their defence will need to shore up if they are to do so. Completing just 78% of their tackle attempts against Counties, their tired legs made for a long day at the office defensively, but they will be confident of getting back to winning ways in Palmerston North on Sunday.
Manawatū started their storm week in great fashion, upsetting Southland on Wednesday night to record their first win of the season and complete a miraculous reversal in form. Entering the game off a 54-point drubbing against Bay Of Plenty and a 39-point demolition against North Harbour in their two prior games, Southland found themselves in the very rare position of road favourites, and it looked like the bookies were correct in the opening 50 minutes, as the Turbos went scoreless. However, the hosts found a new gear in the final 30 minutes of play, as Jordi Viljoen finished off a great try to start the scoring and when Reece MacDonald converted Pena Va’a’s try in the 67th, Manawatū had hit a 21-14 lead. Southland replied with a 76th minute try to tie the game, but a Liam O’Connor break got the Turbos into the Stags’ 22 and a handful of phases later, Brayden Iose put Kyle Brown in to score and secure the Turbos’ first win of the season. Iose was massive all night on both attack and defence, while TK Howden had another big game and Brown threatened on attack. That said, it’s a very short turnaround for Manawatū and we’ve seen struggles from storm week team all season long. Otago will be able to capitalise on this and their big ball-runners will benefit, helping the visitors to a big win. The Turbos are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games and Otago have covered five of their last six against Manawatū.
Manawatū v Otago Tips:
Best: Otago -12.5 ($1.87)
Value: Otago 11-20 ($3.60)