Rugby Park, Invercargill | Friday, 7:05pm
Southland weren’t able to make it back-to-back upset wins, falling to Wellington last week in a game that was never all that close. The Stags stumbled out of the blocks in Porirua, giving up four tries inside the opening 25 minutes of play and they were never really a chance from there, despite a much more even second half of play that saw the game finish 12-36 in Wellington’s favour. Starved of genuine scoring opportunities early on, Southland eventually got going midway through the second half, with Hayden Michaels and Isaac Te Tamaki crossing the chalk, but their lineout struggles and their inability to break the defensive line of the hosts led to a frustrating day at the office for the Southerners.
Canterbury returned to the winner’s circle in a big way last week, beating Otago 34-16 on the road to get their season back on track. It had been a tough couple of games in the lead-up, losing at home to Hawke’s Bay and Wellington, and it looked as though another defeat was heading the Cantabrians’ way early in the second half, staring down a 7-16 deficit. However, the visitors took the game by the horns from that point on, scoring 27 unanswered points in the final 32 minutes of play to pull off what was eventually a comfortable victory. Ngane Punivai was again immense on attack, while Cullen Grace excelled at blindside and Billy Harmon produced another strong defensive showing, anchoring his team on that side of the ball as they only conceded one try. That improving defence for Canterbury will help them win in Invercargill with relative ease and I expect them to cover the 11.5-point line.
Tips:
Best: Canterbury -11.5 ($1.90)
Value: Canterbury 11-20 ($3.50)
Tauranga Domain, Tauranga | Saturday, 2:05pm
Bay Of Plenty produced their best performance of the season in Round 5 to thrash Manawatū 68-14. A try to Semisi Paea in the third minute of play got the Steamers off to a dream start and that was the beginning of an utterly dominant display from BOP, scoring 10 tries to two in an absolute cakewalk. The hosts could do no wrong, penetrating the Turbos’ defence at will and as Emoni Narawa ran amok, Nikora Broughton carried tirelessly and Joe Johnston continued his impressive try-scoring feats this season. The defensive aspect of the Steamers’ display was almost as impressive, conceding just two tries and looking well-structured with Broughton again bringing the heat on that side of the ball. All-in-all, it was an impressive showing from Richard Watt’s team and that will give them great confidence going forward.
Taranaki picked up a valuable 25-19 victory over Waikato last week to move up to fifth in the standings with a 4-1 record. Having established themselves as one of the best defensive teams in the competition, the Bulls had another strong showing defensively against the Mooloos, allowing just six entries from Waikato into their 22 and winning the possession battle 58%-42%. That gave the defending champions the platform that they needed to fend off a prickly Waikato team and it was Josh Jacomb who emerged as the hero for the Bulls, scoring a 78th minute try to win his team the game. A 10-minute surge midway through the second half saw a pair of tries from the Mooloos and, with that, an 18-19 lead, but Jacomb had the last say, with the young first five-eighth continuing his excellent start to the season. He’ll need to be near his best to have the Bulls firing on all cylinders again in what shapes up to be a high-scoring game, and it’s the Steamers who look to have the attacking edge and who are my pick to come out on top. BOP are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games and have covered five of their last seven against the Bulls.
Tips:
Best: Bay Of Plenty +1.5 ($1.80)
Value: Bay Of Plenty 1-12 ($3.30)
North Harbour Stadium, Auckland | Saturday, 4:35pm
North Harbour were on the wrong side of another close game last Saturday, falling to Auckland 32-36 in dramatic fashion. Leading 32-24 with just six minutes remaining, it looked like the Battle of the Bridge would be won by the men from the North Shore, but a try to
Rico Simpson before a controversial scrum reversal after Bryn Hall was deemed to be wasting time gave Auckland possession in the final minutes of the game, and they pulled off the comeback, with Caleb Tangitau waltzing over in the final minute. It was another heartbreaking loss for Ben Afeaki’s men, who also collapsed late the week prior to lose to Counties Manukau. It’s been defence that’s been the main issue for Harbour, and their set piece was a real struggle last week against Auckland, especially their scrum.
Manawatū have also had their fair share of struggles this season, and they were amplified last week in a 14-68 demolition job by Bay Of Plenty. It continued the Turbos’ winless start to the season and marked their 10th consecutive defeat, although this one was by far their worst this season. After find themselves trailing by 14 points after 10 minutes of play, Manawatū had no answer for the relentless attack of BOP and their rapid recycling of possession, leading to easy points from the hosts en route to a 10-try cakewalk. TK Howden was again busy with 27 tackles, while Stan van den Hoven and Brayden Iose also reached the 20-tackle mark, but the number of tackles that Manawatū were forced to make is an indication of the dominance of the Steamers and the Turbos will be wanting to spend much less time on that side of the ball this weekend. However, Harbour have the attacking tools to take the game to the visitors and their array of threats will make for a long day at the office for Manawatū. Harbour have covered 14 of their last 21 home games and Manawatū are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
Tips:
Best: North Harbour -18.5 ($1.87)
Value: North Harbour 21-30 ($4.00)
FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton | Saturday, 7:05pm
Waikato’s two-game win streak came to an end last week as they fell to Taranaki 19-25 in what would have been a frustrating result. The Mooloos were in the box seat heading into the final 10 minutes, holding a 19-18 lead, but they couldn’t seal the deal against the defending champions as Josh Jacomb crossed the chalk and converted his own try to win the Bulls the game. Waikato were effective with the chances that they were able to create, despite having just 42% possession across the game, and a big reason for their possession struggles was their lineout. They won just eight of their 12 lineouts and conceded double the amount of penalties than Taranaki, making for a tough game. Austin Anderson carried well in the midfield while Oli Mathis and Patrick McCurran led the way defensively.
Hawke’s Bay were forced to surrender the Ranfurly Shield in heartbreaking fashion, with Campbell Parata’s penalty goal after the hooter seeing the Mako emerge victorious. The 24-25 defeat for the Magpies was their first loss of the year and saw an end to their reign as Shield holders, after mounting two successful defences at NPC level earlier in the season. While the team will be gutted about the loss, they showed great resilience, fighting back from a 5-19 deficit at halftime to work their way to a 24-22 lead after Matt Protheroe scored in the 75th minute and Danny Toala slotted over the extras. However, it wasn’t to be, as Parata nailed a long-range penalty goal, cruelly denying a Magpies team who had done so well to score four tries across the game against the league’s best defence. Ben O’Donnell again stood out, spearheading the Magpies’ attack, while Tom Parsons kept the Tasman defence honest, and that pair, along with the rest of the team, will need to pull off another big performance on Saturday night to get back into the winner’s circle. The toll of the Shield game may hit them and this Waikato team has been steadily improving since the start of the season, which gives the hosts the advantage. The Mooloos have covered three straight games and cover 62% of their home games.
Tips:
Best: Waikato +1.5 ($1.80)
Value: Waikato 1-12 ($3.30)
Navigation Homes Stadium, Pukekohe | Sunday, 2:05pm
Counties Manukau have won two on the trot to bring their season to life, with a gutsy 25-14 win over Northland last week. The Steelers couldn’t have gotten off to a better start, as
AJ Alatimu crossed in the corner less than two minutes into the game, and they held that lead for the remainder of the game en route to an 11-point win. Conceding just two tries, it was another resilient display from this Counties team that is often running with a talent deficit, but has managed to lift themselves to some great performances this season, and their two wins from their last two games have been reward for that. Etene Nanai-Seturo was again dangerous from the back, while Riley Hohepa had another solid game at second five-eighth. In the forwards, flankers Cameron Church and Alamanda Motuga worked hard to hold off the Taniwha’s attacking threats.
Otago enter this game on the back of a tough storm week, in which they first lost to Canterbury 16-34 on Saturday before falling to Wellington 28-32 on Wednesday. Taking on an undermanned Lions team at home, Otago were a decent chance in their midweek outing, with a good chunk of their first-string players suiting up for the clash, and they showed promise early on, taking a 14-10 lead after 35 minutes. Even that lead felt like it should have been larger, with Wellington’s points coming against the run of play, but two tries to the Lions early in the second 40 saw the visitors open up a 14-27 lead. The Otago comeback was on, however, with their strong bench making an impact to gain a 28-27 lead with less than 10 minutes to play, but it wasn’t to be, as PJ Scheck barged over in the final minutes to hand Otago their fourth defeat of the season. With the storm week now behind them and a chance to get back to winning ways, I expect the Otago defence to hold strong against the Steelers and earn a victory. The men from Dunedin cover 56% of their road games and Counties cover a dismal 38% at home.
Tips:
Best: Otago -2.5 ($1.87)
Value: Otago 1-12 ($3.20)
Lansdowne Park, Blenheim | Sunday, 2:05pm
A mouth-watering Ranfurly Shield clash is on our hands on Sunday afternoon. Fresh off winning the Log o’ Wood last week in Napier, Tasman’s first defence couldn’t be much tougher, as they welcome the unbeaten Wellington to town. The Mako, however, are also unbeaten and have been the form team of the competition in 2024, with an average margin of victory of 22.6 points. However, last week’s game was much closer than that, winning 25-24 as Campbell Parata emerged as the hero, drilling a near-50-metre penalty goal after the siren to win the game and the Shield for Tasman for the first time ever. It was a shaky end to the game for the Mako, conceding two tries in the final 20 minutes to surrender what was at one point a 22-10 lead, but they won a penalty when it mattered most and stole victory from the jaws of defeat. Tasman’s usually-solid defence did look shaky at times, conceding four tries, but they were able to make the most of their attacks and enjoyed a lot of time in good field position, opening the door for their four penalty goals which ultimately proved to be the difference.
Wellington enter this Shield challenge on the back of a tough storm week, where they managed to hold onto their unbeaten record. After breezing past Southland in Porirua on Saturday, the Lions headed down to Dunedin for a Wednesday clash with Otago, winning 32-28 in an entertaining matchup. Alando Sokai decided to rest a number of key players for the game, seeing a second-string lineup for the storm week game, and it paid off as Wellington escaped from Dunedin with a tight win thanks to a late try from PJ Scheck. Callum Harkin had another impressive game, making the most of a starting opportunity, as did the electric Stanley Solomon, while Caleb Delany was busy defensively, as always. But with the likes of Peter Umaga-Jensen, Delany and Pepesana Patafilo all likely having to back up this performance with a game on Sunday, as well as a number of Lions players who came off the bench in Dunedin, life is going to be tough for the Lions in Blenheim. Their third game in nine days makes for a brutal schedule and Tasman will take advantage to record their first successful defence. The Mako are 4-1 ATS this season and have covered six of their last nine at home.
Tips:
Best: Tasman ($1.87)
Value: Tasman 1-12 ($3.00)
Semenoff Stadium, Whangārei | Sunday, 4:35pm
The battle of the Blues region takes place on Sunday afternoon, as the two struggling teams look to find some form. Northland have now lost four on the trot after a 14-25 defeat against Counties Manukau last week, delivering another sub-par performance. Conceding a try in the opening two minutes, the Taniwha were on the back foot almost from the get-go and despite finding some life midway through the second half, courtesy of tries to front-rowers Chris Apoua and Matt Moulds, that would be all she wrote for Northland as the Steelers finished strongly for an 11-point win. The Taniwha have lost some of the flair that they showed at the start of the season and their defence is becoming increasingly worrying.
Auckland broke their duck last week, winning the Battle of the Bridge in somewhat controversial fashion. Trailing 24-32 with just eight minutes to play, it looked like another loss was heading Auckland’s way, but young first five-eighth Rico Simpson scored to give the Aucklanders hope and then a dubious reversal of possession after Auckland baited Bryn Hall into apparent time-wasting gave the Craig McGrath’s team one last sniff. That was all they needed, as their attack sparked to life and finished with Caleb Tangitau scoring his second try of the game to win the match and see the Aucklanders pick up their first W of the season. It was far from pretty and some concerns still remain about the team, but their set piece dominated and they looked like the most dangerous team on attack. Their inaccuracy at the breakdown continues to cause issues but Simpson is building in confidence, Akira Ioane continues to perform at an elite level and Zarn Sullivan has looked strong since returning. I expect Auckland to pick up their form after getting their first win of the year and that will result in a win in the far north. Auckland have won four of their last five against Northland and those wins have come by an average of 13.5 points. The Taniwha have failed to cover their last four games.
Tips:
Best: Auckland -6.5 ($1.87)
Value: Auckland 1-12 ($2.60)
Central Energy Trust Arena, Palmerston North | Wednesday, 7:05pm
Manawatū’s brief purple patch looks to be well and truly over after suffering a 19-58 defeat against North Harbour on Saturday. That thumping came just one week after a 14-68 hammering against Bay Of Plenty in Rotorua, indicating that their strong performances in their two games prior against Wellington and Hawke’s Bay are well behind them. The defeat against Harbour was ugly almost from the get-go, falling to a double-digit deficit inside the first 11 minutes of play and by the 14-minute mark it was 0-17. The Turbos bounced back with back-to-back tries to front-rowers Raymond Tuputupu and Joe Gavigan, and TK Howden crossed the chalk later in the first half, but Manawatū simply couldn’t slow down Harbour’s attack, leading to another blowout. Tane Edmed’s perfect night off the tee made the scoreline uglier than it otherwise could have been, but there is no sugarcoating this performance from the Turbos, whose set piece was ugly and whose defence was in tatters. They have the chance to improve on that form on Wednesday, however, returning home after a tough couple of games on the road and taking on a lesser opponent in Southland.
Southland will be feeling frustrated on the back of their 29-41 loss to Canterbury last week, coming within arm’s length of a win over their South Island foes. A slow start put the Stags on the back foot, conceding two tries within the first five minutes of play, and that was what cost the rising Southerners, never managing to get into the lead, despite pulling the scores back to 17-17 at the 25-minute mark. Dylan Nel was massive once again, while Viliame Fine showed his magic and Jack Taylor had another busy game and it’s clear that this Southland team is not to be taken lightly this season. Their improving depth and physicality will give them the ascendance over the Turbos, but with Manawatū returning home, they are capable of covering this 9.5-point line. Southland’s lineout and scrum again struggled last week and their lack of punch in the backs will somewhat even out the playing level. The Turbos have covered five of their last eight games as home underdogs and Southland are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games.
Tips:
Best: Manawatū +9.5 ($1.80)
Value: Southland 1-12 ($2.90)