Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin | Wednesday, 7:05pm
Otago were their own worst enemies last weekend, letting a second half lead slip against Canterbury to go down 16-34. The Razorbacks had no answer for the late onslaught from the red and blacks, failing to score a point in the second 40 while conceding three tries to lose all hope of what could have been an important victory. Instead, they failed to threaten the Cantabrians in the second half, giving up plenty of ball and struggling to contain the fast pace of play that the visitors worked towards. Christian Lio-Willie provided a spirited effort from the back of the scrum and Cameron Millar gave one of his best ball-running games in an Otago jersey, but the lack of ball retention made it an impossible challenge for the men from Dunedin.
Wellington’s unbeaten run to start the season continued last week, comfortably getting past Southland 36-12 in Porirua. A dominant start to the game got the Wellingtonians out to a 24-0 lead after 26 minutes of play and the writing was on the wall from that point, as the Lions did the job from there to close out another bonus point victory. It’s fair to say that the hosts coasted to victory in the second half, going into cruise control in what was a rather dull 40 minutes of rugby, but Jackson Garden-Bachop looked as confident as ever, as did captain Peter Umaga-Jensen who was a constant threat with ball in hand. Stanley Solomon had a couple of good runs and he gets a chance from fullback on Wednesday night in what is very much a rejigged Wellington team. With no Brad Shields, Peter Lakai, Xavier Numia, Kyle Preston or Garden-Bachop in the starting lineup, just to name a few, Alando Sokai has named a much weakened team for his storm week game and that may come back to bite the Lions. Otago have also named a few big names on the bench, but with many of their workhorses still in the 23, they’re every chance of an upset in Dunedin. Otago have covered 10 of their last 15 at Forsyth Barr and are capable of tripping up the Lions here.
Tips:
Best: Otago +5.5 ($1.87)
Value: Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($2.50)
Rotorua International Stadium, Rotorua | Friday, 7:05pm
Bay Of Plenty suffered their second win on the trot last week, falling to Tasman 15-34 in Blenheim. It ended a poor two-game road trip for the Steamers, having lost to Otago in Dunedin the week prior, and it was their defensive issues that caused the most headaches for them in both games. Against the Mako, BOP weren’t able to adapt to the treacherous conditions in Blenheim, falling behind 0-14 in the opening 15 minutes on the back of some set piece struggles and they were never really in the hunt from that point on, as the hosts continued to pour on the points. Emoni Narawa again proved that he’s elite at this level with some incisive runs, while Nikora Broughton was industrious once more, alongside front rower Benet Kumeroa, but the defensive structure of this Steamers team leaves plenty of questions to answer.
Manawatū again went toe-to-toe with one of the best teams in the competition and again fell short after a strong early showing. Taking a 26-14 lead shortly before half time, the Turbos conceded a try after the hooter and then conceded 17 unanswered points in the second 40 to go down 26-38. While there will be a sense of disappointment, especially after following the same script the week prior against Wellington, Manawatū will be quietly impressed by what they achieved against two undefeated teams. While they do have another difficult task on their hands this Friday, which will result in another loss in all likelihood, I expect the Turbos to show good ticker once more and keep this game below a 20-point margin. They look to have turned a corner, covering their last two games, and BOP have failed to cover their last two outings.
Tips:
Best: Manawatū +23.5 ($1.87)
Value: Bay Of Plenty 11-20 ($3.80)
Eden Park, Auckland | Saturday, 2:05pm
Auckland’s horror start to the 2024 season continued in Round 4, getting thrashed 21-39 by Waikato. By the 20-minute mark, the Aucklanders had already conceded two tries and a penalty goal, making it a very unlikely place to come back from, and they couldn’t pull it off. Down 7-32 at halftime, the blue and whites scored the first two tries of the second 40 to breathe some life into the game but they never truly threatened the Mooloos, falling to a 0-4 record. With just two losing bonus points from those games, the men from the City of Sails have put their finals hopes at serious risk, but young first five-eighth Rico Simpson put forward an encouraging performance in his first start, which gives Craig McGrath’s team something to be excited by going forward.
North Harbour have had a start to the season that’s almost been as frustrating as the Aucklanders’, slipping to a 1-3 record after last week’s demoralising 33-36 defeat against Counties Manukau. Heavily favoured going into the match, Harbour were sloppy for much of the opening hour and showed no ruthlessness with ball in hand. That led to a 14-31 deficit early in the second half and that proved to be too much for the hosts to come back from, despite taking the lead with just six minutes remaining. That lack of finishing touch has been a real issue for Harbour so far in 2024, but it also has been one of the many missing pieces for Auckland so far and, given the instability of Auckland thus far, Harbour look to be a great bet as underdogs. They cover 67% of their road games and Auckland are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.
Tips:
Best: North Harbour +7.5 ($1.90)
Value: North Harbour ($3.00)
Porirua Park, Wellington | Saturday, 2:05pm
Wellington’s unbeaten start to the season continued last week as they romped to a 46-21 cakewalk over Canterbury. Played in Rangiora, the Cantabrians were meant to enter the contest with a real chance of ending the Lions’ streak but the Wellingtonians were far too good from the get-go, scoring two tries in the opening 15 minutes and never looking back. By halftime, their lead had ballooned out to 31 points and while Canterbury did their best to try and make it a respectable scoreline, the Lions were never threatened as they look forward to returning home. Peter Lakai was massive in his hour of play, tormenting the hosts’ defence, while Riley Higgins made a number of breaks in the midfield and Tjay Clarke looked dangerous from the back.
Southland will enter Porirua Park with some serious confidence after heading up north and toppling the Taniwha 31-26 on Friday. It was a steady start to the game for the Stags, going blow-for-blow with the Taniwha for the opening 20 minutes, but a hot run from the hosts had the Southerners behind 7-26 at halftime. That could have been the nail in the coffin but it was all Southland in the second 40, scoring 24 unanswered points, including a brace from Rory van Rugt, to storm to their second win of the season. However, their job gets infinitely harder when they head to Porirua on Saturday. Wellington have had the odd shaky moment this season, requiring comebacks against Manawatū and Taranaki, but have largely looked like one of the more dangerous attacking teams in the competition and that puts them in a good spot against a Southland team whose defence isn’t all that reliable. Conceding an average of 27 points per game and now taking on one of the best attacks in the NPC, I expect the Stags to struggle to keep pace with the hosts and this one will end up as a blowout.
Tips:
Best: Wellington -22.5 ($1.87)
Value: Wellington 21-30 ($3.20)
Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin | Saturday, 4:35pm
Otago’s up-and-down run of form continued into Round 4, falling short against Taranaki in an 18-24 defeat. The Razorbacks gave the defending champions a real scare, leading by six points with just 20 minutes remaining, but late yellow cards to Will Tucker and Jona Nareki allowed for a strong finish from the hosts and ultimately cost Otago what would have been a monumental victory. Still, there were plenty of positives for the men from Dunedin to take from the game — they were efficient with the few scoring opportunities that they did have, Thomas Umaga-Jensen looked strong in the midfield and Harry Taylor was busy in the back row.
Canterbury have also been an inconsistent outfit this season, and that has been well displayed in their last three games. They split their storm week games, beating Auckland before narrowly falling to Hawke’s Bay, but their performance in Round 4 was one they will be wanting to forget quickly. Losing to Wellington 21-46 in Rangiora, Canterbury were blown out of the water almost immediately, falling behind 0-14 within the opening 15 minutes. By halftime, it was a 31-point deficit and there was clearly no way back for Canterbury from there, despite spirited performances from James White and Torian Barnes. But this Canterbury team simply has not gelled this season and time is fast running out for them to stamp their mark on the competition. Otago, on the other hand, have been slowly but surely improving and that may well culminate in a win over their Cantabrian rivals. Otago have covered the spread in their last three games and Canterbury continue to be overrated by the market, going 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games.
Tips:
Best: Otago +1.5 ($1.87)
Value: Otago 1-12 ($3.30)
McLean Park, Napier | Saturday, 7:05pm
Hawke’s Bay’s biggest test of the season is in front of them, and the pressure is well and truly on to put on a big performance to defend the Ranfurly Shield. That said, the Magpies have barely faltered this season, taking a perfect 5-0 record and 25 points into Round 5 having shown off their attacking flair all season long. They needed to dig deep into their bag of tricks last week to escape from an early 0-19 deficit that they found themselves in. By halftime, they’d cut the margin to just five points and then took the lead at the 67 minute mark, after Folau Fakatava sliced through a hole to score. A late Nick Grigg try sealed the 38-26 victory, but it’s no secret that Hawke’s Bay will need to be vastly improved if they are to retain the Shield.
Tasman, like the Magpies, are also undefeated heading into this encounter and have without doubt been the most dominant team in the competition so far. With a 112 points difference through four games, the Mako have been able to pull away from all of their opponents this season and their 34-15 triumph over Bay Of Plenty last week was perhaps their most impressive showing of the season. Taking on a solid Steamers team, the hosts were again fast-starting, scoring two tries in the opening 15 minutes, and that set the tone for the remainder of the game. Max Hicks was tireless on both sides of the ball, keeping the Mako rumbling forward while halting BOP’s runners, and Timoci Tavatavanawai had a number of trademark runs, as well as a couple of timely turnover wins. That dynamism of the Mako will make them tough for Hawke’s Bay to slow down, but the Magpies turn into a different beast at home and there’s every chance that they retain the Shield. They are one of the few teams in the competition that can go close to matching Tasman’s attack and the set piece play of their forwards may help them emerge on top. The Magpies cover 57% of their home games and Tasman have covered just six of their last 18 road games.
Tips:
Best: Hawke’s Bay +3.5 ($1.87)
Value: Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($2.40)
Yarrow Stadium, New Plymouth | Sunday, 2:05pm
Taranaki utilised a hot finish to get past Otago in a 22-18 victory last week. Now 3-1, the Bulls have gotten their title defence off to a decent start, but there have been some shaky patches and we saw a fair few of them last week. However, the Bulls’ hot patches have been hot indeed, and that was again the recipe for success in beating Otago last week, finishing the game with two unanswered tries to grapple the win away from the Razorbacks, with Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens and Ricky Riccitelli being the try-scoring heroes. It wasn’t just in the action of crossing the chalk that saw Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens getting involved — the big wing regularly came in off his wing to take carry after carry and he was also effective on defence when called upon. Bradley Slater and Arese Poliko also made their mark, as this Taranaki team made it work again for win #3 of the season.
Waikato are 3-2 after their storm week, in which they won both games to get their season back on track. After thrashing Auckland 39-21, the Mooloos backed it up with a 34-19 win over Northland on Wednesday night to improve to a winning record and find some real form heading into the midway point of the season. Young flanker Oliver Mathis stole headlines for his athletic try, and he regularly made an impact with ball in hand, while Aki Tuivailala and D’Angelo Leuila made a few nice runs. While it was a second-string side for the Mooloos, it was encouraging to see their depth on display and they will likely pivot back to a mainly-first-string squad for this encounter which will give them a chance against the defending champions. I expect Taranaki to win this game but Waikato have been piecing things together and I can see this one being an arm wrestle.
Tips:
Best: Waikato +13.5 ($1.82)
Value: Taranaki 1-12 ($3.00)
Navigation Homes Stadium | Sunday, 4:35pm
Counties Manukau recorded win #1 of their season last week, upsetting North Harbour 36-33. It was a real momentum-builder after a series of encouraging performances from the Steelers in the early rounds, followed by a 45-point demolition at the hands of Tasman in Round 3. However, Counties bounced back in supreme style, snatching a road win over Harbour in dramatic fashion. After leading 14-0 early on and then 31-14 at the 55-minute mark, the Steelers let their foot slip off the gas as the hosts came storming back to take a 31-33 lead with five minutes remaining. Counties found another gear to pour the pressure back onto Harbour and it was Simon-Peter Toleafoa who made the breakthrough in the corner. Counties then managed to hold on for the win, and they’ll be looking to make it two on the bounce on Sunday.
Northland had a Round 4 to forget, losing to Southland at home before dropping their Wednesday evening game against Waikato 19-34. The Taniwha came out of the blocks hot, scoring the game’s first try on Wednesday after a beautiful cross-kick from Lisati Milo-Harris, and it was the halfback who scored the Taniwha’s second try to spark a late surge in the first half to bring Northland within two points at the break. However, the visitors left nothing in the tank for the second half, failing to score a point as Waikato ran away with the win, and that lack of attacking punch has been a concern for Northland in most of their games so far. Counties will bring the physicality and it may end up being an open game, which will require the Taniwha to score at a decent pace, but that may not be all that easy to come by in their third game in 10 days. As underdogs, the Steelers are good value here.
Tips:
Best: Counties Manukau +2.5 ($1.87)
Value: Counties Manukau 1-12 ($3.40)