Semenoff Stadium, Whangārei | Friday, 7:05pm
Northland came up short in their Ranfurly Shield challenge last week, falling to Hawke’s Bay 30-55. It was a thrilling game, in which the Taniwha gave it a red-hot crack, leading for much of the first half, but once the Magpies got going, the Northlanders had no response. Unable to work their way deep into Hawke’s Bay territory with enough regularity to keep up with the scoring of the hosts, the Taniwha eventually fell off the pace to drop their record to 1-2 this season. Rivez Reihana had another impressive game at first five-eighth, scoring 15 points off the boot, and Saimoni Uluinakauvadra was massive once more at openside, working tirelessly on defence and at the ruck.
Southland haven’t been able to build off their opening round triumph against Otago, having lost their two games since by an average of 14.5 points. That doesn’t sound pretty on the surface, but it’s not been an easy couple of weeks for the Stags, first taking on Hawke’s Bay and then playing against Taranaki last week. The 24-39 home defeat against the defending champions was expected, but the Southerners would have been disappointed with their opening half, conceding four tries to the Bulls to be trailing 10-29 at half time to all but end their chances of an upset. The hosts were much more composed in the second half, with Sean Withy putting in another big shift alongside his back row buddy Dylan Nel, but the defensive polish was ultimately lacking for the Stags. However, now preparing to take on Northland, Southland will give themselves every chance of spoiling the party in the far north. Southland have been tough to beat this season, showing good cohesion in their forwards, and will really push the Taniwha. The Stags are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games and will cover again on Friday night.
Tips:
Best: Southland +10.5 ($1.82)
Value: Northland 1-12 ($2.80)
North Harbour Stadium, Auckland | Saturday, 2:05pm
North Harbour broke their duck to record their first win of the season last week, toppling Waikato 43-29. After coming up short against Hawke’s Bay and Bay Of Plenty in the opening two rounds, their triumph against Waikato would have come as a relief, as they romped home in the last 25 minutes. With scores tied at 22-apiece at the 55-minute mark, a late hattrick to Kade Banks broke the game wide open to make for a comfortable win for the men from the North Shore. Banks was obviously the star of the show, while Shaun Stevenson repeatedly showed his class and Trisytn Cook worked tirelessly on defence, making for by far Harbour’s most complete performance of 2024.
Counties Manukau have been luckless to start their season, with a 0-4 record through the opening three rounds. Their opponents so far have been Taranaki, Bay Of Plenty, Waikato and Tasman, with a storm week in Round 1, highlighting just how difficult their schedule has been, and it barely gets any easier with a clash in Albany. Trailing just 3-10 at half time last week against the Mako, a disastrous second half ensued for the Steelers, conceding 38 unanswered points, including six tries, to really crumble. Perhaps the brutal schedule caught up with them, as they ran out of steam, but the week’s rest will be sure to help them and we can expect to see this Counties team return to the resilient team that we saw from them in the opening fortnight. Harbour have covered just one of their last five games and we’ll see a bounce-back effort from a rejuvenated Steelers side here.
Tips:
Best: Counties Manukau +15.5 ($1.87)
Value: North Harbour 11-20 ($3.50)
Yarrow Stadium, New Plymouth | Saturday, 2:35pm
Taranaki looked assured in their 39-24 victory over Southland last week, continuing their strong start to the season. The defending champions took the lead in the first minute through a penalty goal from Josh Jacomb and finished the half strongly to take a 29-10 lead into the sheds. The Bulls were in cruise control from that point, with bustling games from Kini Naholo and his back three mate Jacob Ratumaitavuki-Kneepkens helping get them over the line. There will be no Naholo for the Bulls this week but now at a 2-1 record for the season, it’s been a steady start for the 2023 champions but they have another fairly big challenge ahead of them on Saturday.
Otago have put their Round 1 woes behind them to win their following two games and insert themselves back into the playoff picture. That loss to the Stags feels like a distant memory after home wins against Auckland and Bay Of Plenty in the last two weeks, with their victory over the Steamers on Sunday coming in impressive fashion. Trailing 17-26 with 20 minutes remaining, the Razorbacks made the most of a yellow card to BOP’s Jacob Norris, with Oliver Haig scoring twice in the final quarter to give the hosts a 31-26 victory. Coming off wins against BOP and Auckland, Otago are riding some strong form as they head north to New Plymouth and they will prove to be a real challenge for the Bulls. Taranaki have covered just three of their last six games as favourites of more than seven points and will struggle to cover such a big line on Saturday afternoon.
Tips:
Best: Otago +9.5 ($1.87)
Value: Taranaki 1-12 ($3.00)
FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton | Saturday, 4:35pm
It’s been a shaky start to 2024 for Waikato, stumbling out of the blocks to a 1-2 record. A late collapse against North Harbour, en route to a 29-43 defeat, would have done no favours for their morale, squandering what was a good chance to get back to winning ways. Aaron Cruden converted a try from George Dyer in the 54th minute to tie the scores at 22-22, but the Mooloos fell asleep from that point on, conceding three tries from Kade Banks in the space of 19 minutes to lose the game. Waikato didn’t have many issues in converting their chances into points, it was more their ball retention and their defence that let them down. Basic errors when it came to handling and tackling made it a long day at the office for the Mooloos, and that has been typical of their last two games.
Auckland’s start to the season has been even worse. The men from the big city are 0-3 to start the year, with losses against Wellington, Otago and Canterbury tarnishing their record through the first three rounds, and they’re no guarantee to pick up win #1 this weekend. Despite being littered with experience and Super Rugby talent, Craig McGrath’s side haven’t been able to seal the deal in any of their three games, despite being in with a sniff in each. Last week’s 21-27 defeat at home against Canterbury would have been particularly frustrating, showing little in terms of attack and repeatedly faltering against the visitors’ defence. Their luck will almost certainly turn at some point but they are disjointed and showing little promise on attack, with their scrum being the only consistent positive. Waikato have the tools to trouble the Aucklanders and, in Hamilton, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Mooloos win. Waikato cover 60% of their home games and Auckland are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
Tips:
Best: Waikato +6.5 ($1.85)
Value: Waikato 1-12 ($3.80)
Lansdowne Park, Blenheim | Saturday, 7:05pm
Tasman are the hottest team in the competition, and it’s not all that close. Their 48-3 demolition job of Counties Manukau last week validated that claim, putting on a ruthless display in Pukekohe, running in seven tries to the Steelers’ zero, as Timoci Tavatavanawai produced another blockbuster display. Plenty of other backs got in on the fun, with Macca Springer, Levi Aumua and Kyren Taumoefolau also crossing the chalk, but their defence, led by Braden Stewart and Ryan Coxon, was equally impressive, as the Mako completely dominated the game from start to finish.
Bay Of Plenty had a good chance to pick up a valuable victory in Dunedin, but they couldn’t close out the game, going on to suffer their first defeat of the season. Leading 26-17 with less than 20 minutes remaining, BOP were sitting pretty. That was until Jacob Norris was sinbinned, opening the door for the hosts, and they scored the final 14 points of the game to emerge as the 26-31 victors, much to the disappointment of the Steamers. Cody Vai and Emoni Narawa again proved to be excitement machines for the BOP, and will give Tasman a lot to think about on Saturday night. This is a dynamic Steamers team and it’s fair to say that the Mako haven’t come across such a team this season, which may leave the door ajar for the visitors. I expect this one to be closer than the bookies are expecting, with BOP matching up well with the Mako in most positional battles. BOP have covered 16 of their last 20 on the road and can continue that form in Blenheim.
Tips:
Best: Bay Of Plenty +9.5 ($1.87)
Value: Tasman 1-12 ($2.90)
Rangiora Showground Oval, Rangiora | Sunday, 2:05pm
Canterbury have been a real mixed bag in 2024, going 2-2 with a rollercoaster of performances. Battling with a storm week in Round 3, they impressed to win at Eden Park on Saturday, before losing at home against Hawke’s Bay on Wednesday night. Their win in Auckland was the best they have looked all season, controlling the flow of the game for the most part and flexing their defensive muscle to earn the victory, but they weren’t able to replicate those efforts against the Magpies. While they again defended well for large portions, they lacked the attacking punch that they needed to keep up with the visitors and, frankly, were lucky to finish the first 40 tied at 13-13.
Wellington were very lucky to escape last week’s game against Manawatū with a win, coming out on top 39-31. As expected, the Lions started hot, recording two tries in the opening 20 minutes as it looked like they were going to cruise to victory. However, the undermanned Turbos responded with real intent, levelling the scores by halftime before getting out to a 24-31 lead with 15 minutes remaining. From there, however, the Lions were too good, with tries to Peter Lakai and Tjay Clarke sealing the win and ensuring Wellington maintained an unbeaten record. While an unbeaten record sounds impressive, it’s been anything but for the Lions this year. They have had great glimpses but, for the most part, have been sloppy and looked complacent. Such a performance against a good Canterbury defence on the road will land them in real trouble and I can’t trust this Wellington team in their current form. The Lions have covered just one of their last six games and I’m happy to lay them as narrow favourites.
Tips:
Best: Canterbury +3.5 ($1.87)
Value: Tri-Bet — Either Team By Under 7.5 ($2.50)
Central Energy Trust Arena, Palmerston North | Sunday, 4:35pm
Manawatū almost pulled off one of the biggest upsets in recent NPC memory last week, pushing Wellington to the brink before going down 31-39. Despite being without the likes of Brett Cameron and Brayden Iose, the Turbos really took the game to the heavily-fancied Wellingtonians in Porirua to produce what was, by far, their best performance of the season. TK Howden had another busy game, continuing his hot start to the season, leading the team in tackles and carries, while Julian Goerke also stamped his mark defensively. Ultimately, however, the Turbos didn’t have enough gas in the tank to finish the job as they now look forward to their showdown against Hawke’s Bay.
The Magpies had a great Round 3, dismantling Northland 55-30 to defend the Ranfurly Shield on Friday before going down to Christchurch and beating Canterbury 27-21 to improve to 4-0. It continued an excellent start to the season for the Magpies and their attack again came to the fore in their showdown against Canterbury, repeatedly cracking a team that had looked strong on the defensive side of the ball. That’s encouraging for Hawke’s Bay heading into the final game of the round, but with a number of key players set to be rested by Brock James, this may not be a blowout to the magnitude that some are expecting. The Turbos will be back to their full complement this weekend and will be buoyed by their performance in the capital last week, helping keep things relatively close in Palmy.
Tips:
Best: Manawatū +19.5 ($1.87)
Value: Hawke’s Bay 11-20 ($3.80)
FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton | Wednesday, 7:05pm
Waikato responded well from their Round 3 loss to North Harbour, trouncing Auckland 39-21 on Saturday to improve to 2-2. It hasn’t been the smoothest start to the year for Ross Filipo’s men, and their heavy defeat against Harbour threatened to shake the boat, but they couldn’t have started better against Auckland, running out to a 32-7 halftime lead. Aaron Cruden turned back the clock in his first start for the season, scoring 17 points, while Dan Sinkinson made the most of his opportunities on the wing, scoring a hat-trick, and the forwards, such as Patrick McCurran and Ollie Norris, were massive in helping the Mooloos gain ascendency.
Northland, much like Waikato, have struggled for consistency this year and that was evident on Friday night, as they fell to Southland 26-31. It was a shock result for the Taniwha, who had built confidence with strong performances in the opening two rounds, only to fall flat in the second half to record a bad defeat. Two tries late in the first half gave Northland a 26-7 lead heading into the sheds in Whangārei but it was all downhill from there, as they let in 24 unanswered points to suffer their third defeat of the season. The Taniwha looked structured and resolute in the opening half but it all fell to pieces in the second 40, as their lineout began to crumble, they failed to shutdown the Stags attack and they continually coughed up possession. Sam Caird had another good defensive game, while Brady Rush had a couple of encouraging moments, but there is a lot for this Taniwha team to work on heading into Wednesday’s clash. With both teams resting key players for their storm week game, the depth of the Mooloos will shine through to record a comfortable win.
Tips:
Best: Waikato -9.5 ($1.87)
Value: Waikato 11-20 ($3.60)