The UFC loads up a 13-fight card this weekend and lands in the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi for UFC on ABC 7. Capped by a bantamweight showdown between Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nugmagomedov with a potential title shot for the winner, the tension will be high from start to finish of this chaotic card.
5-0 in the UFC, the time for Umar Nurmagomedov to test himself against the elite has finally arrived. His last year consisted of clean wins over Raoni Barcelos and Bekzat Almakhan that proved he needed another level to challenge him and he finds a fitting partner in savvy veteran Cory Sandhagen. This bout is one that ultimately comes down to a clash of styles, even as both men have improved beyond their base skills.
Nurmagomedov boasts a lifetime of wrestling experience and stifling top control – assets he will desperately need against a crafty striker in Sandhagen. The taller man in this match-up, Sandhagen is a masterful striker with a wide arsenal of attacks, smooth footwork to set it up, and the gas tank to fuel it all for five rounds.
Historically, Sandhagen has struggled most with powerful wrestlers who can exploit any grappling shortcomings but it is worth mentioning he hasn’t lost in that manner in many years. This contest is a thrilling one but could ultimately be more binary than some are expecting. I anticipate Nurmagomedov to look for takedowns early and often while Sandhagen will control the action on the feet and clearly win minutes.
If either man is allowed to stay in their preferred domain, it will likely result in a one-sided round. The hype for Nurmagomedov is high; his unbeaten record and blanketing top game has done well to bolster that reputation, but he has yet to respond to a dynamic threat like Cory Sandhagen.
Though favored, this weekend stands as a remarkable test for Nurmagomedov and he will find no easy takedowns against a well-prepared Sandhagen. Some of Sandhagen’s worst recent performances have been the result of short-notice efforts. With a full camp (and then some) of preparation for Nurmagomedov – a foe he was supposed to face this time last year – I relish Sandhagen’s chances to pull off the upset in hostile territory.
Although a mere 2-0 in the UFC, Sharabutdin Magomedov has been a widely talked about figure even before he debuted in the organisational.
As controversial for his aggression outside the cage as he is heralded for it inside, Magomedov is a wild, powerful striker who prides himself on being a finisher. A short-notice scrape with Antonio Trocoli resulted in a third round TKO but impressed few, and Magomedov has an opportunity to secure a cleaner win over a more notable opponent this weekend.
A fellow striking specialist, Michal Oleksiejczuk was submitted in his last two outings but finds a willing striking participating this time around. Oleksiejczuk was most recently tapped out by Kevin Holland earlier this year but keen minds might remember the early success Oleksiejczuk was having that forced the change in tempo. Despite an unassuming 7-6 record in the UFC, Oleksiejczuk is a deceptively powerful fighter with a sneaky left hand from the southpaw stance. His grappling has yet to truly develop into a strength but he shouldn’t be too worried about getting taken down against Sharabutdin Magomedov.
These two are likely to square up and start winging heavy shots from the opening round; with neither fearing a takedown, I expect the best of their offense to be on display here. Magomedov is a heavy favorite and it is certainly likely he continues a trend of success in striking bouts, but wild, defensively negligent fighters like Magomedov are due for a surprise and a tricky southpaw from Poland may be the one to dish it out.
The former flyweight king, Deiveson Figueiredo set his mind on a move to bantamweight and has settled in nicely since debuting there nine months ago. Now 2-0 in the division, Figueiredo has looked increasingly sharp in dismantling Rob Font and most recently Cody Garbrandt. With an equal number of knockouts and submissions to his record, Figueiredo has always been regarded as an offensive juggernaut and that still rings true even in 2024. Being 36-years-old has not slowed Figueiredo at all and now with troves of elite experience in his pocket, the Brazilian spark plug has an opportunity to make a run towards being a two-division champion. Serious about his aspirations, Figueiredo will need to get past a man with extensive experience fighting for the bantamweight title.
Best known as “Chito”, Vera is a mere 1-2 in his last three but hasn’t failed to bring his trademark style into the cage every time. Relentless, durable, and defensively liable, Vera is the Zamboni of the bantamweight division. Unafraid of taking a punch to deal one of his own, Vera is a hard-charging and offensive-minded fighter but his evolution has slowed in recent years. Besides being an infamously slow starter, Vera has simply failed to seriously improve in recent years even as he brushed with title opportunities and elite opposition. History has shown that while Vera is a ridiculously tough fighter with solid offensive capabilities, he takes time to get going and struggles with quicker fighter who can keep him wading forward into pain. Deiveson Figueiredo has just the skill set to trouble Vera, even as he gives up some height and reach.
A significant difference in footwork and speed would be enough to favor Figueiredo, but he has proven the ability to petrify opponents with feints and intelligent offense. Everything points to a problematic evening for Vera; physically imposing as he is, the technical difference should be apparent from the opening bell.
Despite his status as the biggest underdog on the card, Tony Ferguson is one of the most talked-about figures appearing on the event. On a staggering seven-fight losing streak that includes being knocked out and submitted twice apiece, Ferguson finds himself in another unfavorable match-up this weekend. Although he’s managed to stay active and average roughly two fights a year for the last few, he has remained without a win since 2019. Competing for the first time as a 40-year-old, Ferguson is unlikely to showcase the vintage skills that put him on the map many years ago. At this point, Ferguson has shown a vulnerability everywhere. He remains fairly durable but is physically outmatched more often than not and has little to offer but a reasonably deep gas tank and the tricks that come along with a wealth of elite experience.
A veteran in his own right, Michael Chiesa is also on a losing streak but has still looked competent against high-level opposition. The younger man by four years and with unspeakably more tread on his tires, Chiesa is in a prime opportunity to put the final nail in the coffin of Tony Ferguson’s career. Although Chiesa has struggled in recent outings, he will enter the cage this weekend as the bigger man with an advantage in the wrestling department. A finish never comes easily against a hearty man like Ferguson, but the timing is right for Chiesa to physically dominate this bout and potentially close the show.
Mackenzie Dern is ready to embark on a busy and competitive month as she tackles two elites in two different sports. First, she takes on Loopy Godinez at UFC on ABC 7, and then she grapples reigning queenpin Ffion Davies at the Craig Jones Invitational on August 17th. The betting favorite for her MMA bout, Dern is a mere 1-3 in her last four and looking to shake off a two-fight skid. Although her losses have come to world class opposition, Dern has struggled to find consistent success with a fairly limited skill set at the elite level. Well-regarded for her submission ability and grappling accolades, Dern is one of the best in the sport on the mat but has become easy to game plan for. Her striking has improved offensively but she remains defensively liable, although durable. Dern’s success absorbing strikes and wading forward has seemingly hit its ceiling. As is the case for many of Dern’s bouts, her success depends largely on her ability to hit takedowns. Unfortunately, she faces a particularly challenging foe to manhandle in Loopy Godinez.
The older sister of Canadian national team wrestlers Karla and Ana, it then comes as little surprise that Loopy is a technically skilled wrestler in her own right. A plucky fighter with a deep gas tank, Godinez was dragged to the mat and out-hustled in a narrow loss to Virna Jandiroba earlier this year but the loss has aged well in light of Jandiroba’s surge. The superior wrestler on paper and with competent boxing to show on the feet, Godinez may find herself able to fend off the takedown attempts of Dern and accumulate points. Loopy lacks the kind of heavy power that truly dissuades Dern so every tie-up will be a hard-fought exchange for position, but Godinez has little to worry about until the fight actually hits the mat. If Godinez is upright, I think she will be scoring points and winning minutes.
In the event this fight hits the mat, Godinez is no slouch and more than capable of surviving some scrambles with Dern. An extended grappling match isn’t the best idea for the Mexican-born Godinez but she isn’t one to tap easily. Look for Godinez to get back on track and scrape out a gritty win over an even grittier opponent.
A slight betting favorite this weekend, Joel Alvarez has been in the UFC for over five years but this is only the second time he appears on a main card. Holding a 5-2 record in the organization, Alvarez is an offensively versatile threat but one who struggles to make the lightweight limit. Having missed weight twice in his UFC career thus far, Alvarez is predictably a large and physically imposing fighter when he does he does step into the cage. Alvarez’s nearly 90% submission rate showcases his clear ability on the mat but what the paper doesn’t say is how dangerous Alvarez has become on the feet. A sharp kicker with a strong sense of distance and timing, Alvarez has arguably developed into a more menacing striker than anything at this point. That said, Alvarez will have his durability tested when he opens the main card of UFC on ABC 7 against Elves Brener. Somewhat of a comparable wild man, Brener has found unlikely success over a 3-1 run in the UFC. The surge of upsets was finally halted when he was slowed down and outpointed by Myktybek Orolbai three months ago.
Aggressive, powerful, and unafraid, Brener is not a savvy fighter but owns an offensive quality that has allowed him to maul technically superior opponents. Brener is no defensive savant and his best assets lie on the front foot when he is letting offense go, but that kind of style will play into the counter-punching and experience of Joel Alvarez. Not everyone can handle the relentless pressure Brener brings to the table, but Alvarez has the skills necessary to grasp winning moments out of the chaos. Brener won’t go away until the final bell sounds but Alvarez has multiple routes to victory if he can avoid being overwhelmed.
Nurmagomedov v Sandhagen: Cory Sandhagen @ $3.60
Magomedov v Oleksiejczuk: Michal Oleksiejczuk By KO/TKO @ $5.25
Figueiredo v Vera: Deiveson Figueiredo @ $1.68
Chiesa v Ferguson: Michael Chiesa By Submission @ $2.25
Godinez v Dern: Lupita Godinez By Points @ $2.25
Alvarez v Brener: Joel Alvarez By KO/TKO Or Submission @ $2.05
Murzakanov v Menifield: Azamat Murzakanov By KO/TKO @ $2.05
Fernandes v Yahya: Kaue Fernandes By Points @ $3.75
Gaziev v Mayes: Don’tale Mayes @ $3.00
Kutateladze v Vucenic: Guram Kutateladze By Points @ $2.25
Dudakova v Hughes: Victoria Dudakova By Points @ $2.00
Herbert v Bedoya: Jai Herbert @ $1.75
Dumas v Tiuliulin: Denis Tiuliulin @ $2.75