A monumental step-up in competition is ushered in by Jared Cannonier as he welcomes hopeful contender Caio Borralho in UFC on ESPN 62’s headliner. Every fight will take place in the middleweight division or below, with the remainder of the card is rounded out by a litany of motivated prospects and contenders vying for relevancy in fast-moving divisions.
A surging Brazilian with a perfect 6-0 record in the UFC, Borralho has rapidly garnered attention both from fans and the organization itself. A featured prospect, Borralho has come to own a nicely well-rounded game that suits his physicality well.
An effective wrestler with excellent top control, Borralho has found his cleanest successes in tie-ups and grappling exchanges but has developed functional striking.
Borralho has a firm understanding on distance and timing with surprisingly effective kick on the outside. While his defense has shown some defects, there is no questioning his increased efficiency and intelligence inside the cage.
Despite being a relatively heavy favorite this week, Borralho will have his hands full with 40-year-old veteran Jared Cannonier.
Known as the “Killa Gorilla”, Cannonier has developed a justified reputation as a sharp and brutal striker. 10-7 in the UFC with an excellent resume to boast, Cannonier is yet again receiving a challenging match-up.
In action only two months ago, Cannonier was controversially stopped by Nassourdine Imavov to conclude an otherwise narrow and tense affair. Cannonier is wasting no time getting back into the cage after being denied a rematch with Imavov.
A powerful and cerebral fighter, Cannonier is still an offensive juggernaut but his tendency to get hurt lately must be noted. Though he has been largely successful recently, the last couple years have seen Cannonier getting hurt or dropped by fighters lacking renown for their power.
UFC on ESPN 62 will be the first bout for Cannonier as a 40-year-old. While there is no denying his strength of resume and penchant for striking, he is showing some signs of physically slowing down. For a style that so heavily enjoys physical advantages, this match-up could prove problematic for Cannonier.
One of the most prominent members of the surging “Fighting Nerds” team, Caio Borralho has shown increased effectiveness implementing and executing game plans. Though a five-round contest with Cannonier will not be easy to engage, Borralho may enter this bout with the deeper gas tank and more options.
A pure striking contest is disadvantageous to Borralho but he has proven the willingness to mix it up and will need to do so this weekend. Historically, Cannonier has shown solid takedown defense but it has some holes in it and most importantly, the pace and strength of Borralho is bound to give Cannonier trouble.
Look for Borralho to stay a kick or takedown ahead of Cannonier all night and rack up points along the way. This is a big fight IQ test for Borralho and as the face of “Fighting Nerds”, he is positioned well to show why the team has yet to lose a fight in 2024.
Same Game Multi: Borralho By Points + Borralho 3+ Takedowns + 60+ Strikes Landed
3-1 in her last four, Tabatha “Baby Shark” Ricci has proven a reliable competitor in the strawweight division. Three months ago, Ricci was successful again in taking a split decision over longtime veteran Tecia Pennington.
Ricci comes from a Judo base but has done well to develop a well-rounded game. At this point, Ricci has no critical flaws and is most prominently working on refining her A-game.
That said, Ricci almost always does her best work when she can get the fight to the mat and establish top position. “Baby Shark” is not as much of a finisher as her moniker may suggest, but she is happy to maintain a solid pace behind a competent game plan.
As she enters the weekend, Ricci is a minor betting favorite over the seemingly ageless Angela Hill. An American veteran with 25 fights in the UFC alone, Hill has seen (and done) almost everything there is in the sport.
Having undergone several evolutions as a fighter, Hill has long held the reputation as something of a gatekeeper but a 3-1 verdict in her last four suggest she isn’t ready to lie down. Most recently, Hill punctuated her improvements by finishing a mounted guillotine choke on Luana Pinheiro.
Though Hill is 39-years-old and has a remarkably deep resume, she has yet to look like a broken or faded fighter. On the contrary, she has been aging like a fine wine; recently showing better results with more impressive methods.
Stylistically this may be a somewhat binary contest as Hill is one of the sharpest Muay Thai specialists in the division. Though she lacks exceeding stopping power, her offensive effectiveness in the clinch is a force to be reckoned with.
As Ricci enjoys many of her takedowns coming from tie-ups, she may find difficulty generating successful ones against Hill. Any delay in getting the fight to the mat will favor the speedier Hill.
Despite an unlikely run that has Hill on the cusp of real contention again, there have been no signs of stopping. Motivated and tasked once again with staying upright, I anticipate Hill will do what she does best and take home a solid win.
Same Game Multi: Hill Head To Head + Hill 50+ Strikes Landed
Season 32 of The Ultimate Fighter needs a middleweight winner and this match-up determines it. After a competitive season, we are left with Robert Valentin as the betting favorite to take the crown.
A dogged and aggressive fighter who has shown no signs of changing the usual game plan, Valentin is as defensively liable as you may expect from an offensive brute. That willingness to take as much as he gives has proven effective, and the versatility of his offense allows him to continue pushing a pace anywhere.
Hailing from Switzerland, Valentin is a deceptively agile grappler who maintains his same offensive tendencies on the mat. With a solid gas tank to fuel the entire arsenal, Valentin is an imposing fighter difficult to keep up with.
On the other end of the table will be Ryan Loder – a former collegiate wrestler who puts those skills to good use in the cage. Loder lacks accolades or much experience in MMA at all but brings Division I wrestling into every match.
Though his skill set is limited, he is doing well to develop properly at Team Alpha Male under the tutelage of Urijah Faber. That said, he is still a wrestler at his core and couldn’t rightfully be called a well-rounded fighter.
Having faced little resistance as a professional, the brutal and unrelenting nature of Robert Valentin may prove disastrous for Loder. Early takedown success for Loder wouldn’t be a shock but the grappling skill and offensive focus of Valentin should keep things from slowing down too much.
As with most finalists of The Ultimate Fighter, we are seeing competitors with a lot of room to grow. Without Loder having proven the versatility or cardio needed to beat Valentin, one must side with the consistency of the Swiss fighter to win the crown this weekend.
At only 24-years-old, Alves is a young prospect in the UFC but was actually supposed to make his organizational debut a year ago. Visa issues derailed the initial planned appearance, so Alves took advantage of an Ultimate Fighter opportunity to fight his way to the big show.
A solid striker who is still trying to adapt to MMA’s versatility, Alves may be 14 fights into his career but has yet to show much comfort in grappling exchanges. Without a single submission victory to his name and having been dominated by a pre-UFC Dan Argueta, it has become clear Alves struggles to win if he comes off his feet.
That stands to be challenging fact to contend with as he takes on grinding grappler Kaan Ofli for The Ultimate Fighter featherweight crown. With a firm background in grappling that includes a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Ofli has shown the willingness and ability to drag fights down and end them effectively.
Naturally, Ofli has shown some deficiencies on the feet but stands to fare well in this contest. Owning the durability to handle initial surges, Ofli should find success down the stretch with his stifling style and effective grappling.
There is something to be said about Alves’ striking in a vacuum but generating a consistent offense in this particular match-up will be a far tougher challenge. The future looks bright for both featherweight finalists but the mat control of Ofli seems it’ll be too much for the young Brazilian to handle right now.
The largest betting favorite at UFC on ESPN 62 by far, Michael Morales is expected to dominate this weekend. A perfect 16-0 as a pro, Morales took a clean decision win over Jake Matthews nine months ago.
A striking savant who has notched four excellent wins in the UFC, Morales is a surprisingly composed and sharp fighter at only 25-years-old. Owning a consistent pace inside the cage, Morales has come to dominate the majority of his opposition with simple, effective technique.
Morales packs a punch in his right hand and started his UFC stint off with two KOs. Since, he has slowed things down a bit and continually improved at winning minutes.
There is something to be said about the first man to drag Morales to the mat and control him, but that situation has yet to unfold and isn’t likely to this weekend.
32 fights in the UFC. 14 years as a professional. Neil Magny has long been a consistent presence in the organization but recent years have seen him fall into place as a gatekeeper. A 2-2 scoreline in recent years have done little to change that idea.
At 37-years-old and with so many years of high-level competition in the books, it isn’t unreasonable to say Magny’s best days are behind him. Exceptionally wily and difficult-to-stop as Magny is, there are few viable paths to victory for Magny here that don’t involve turning back the clock.
A vintage showing of stifling clinch work and sneaky dirty boxing would be a treat for hardcore/longtime fight fans but it is most likely Morales dominates this bout as he is expected to.
Able to compete with Magny’s length and clearly on another level of striking technique, Morales should be able to keep Magny on the feet and threaten a finish.
Though a mere 2-3 in his last five, Shahbazyan has been on an upward trend and most recently demolished AJ Dobson in a single round five months ago. The win was desperately needed and now Shahbazyan has an opportunity to kick start real momentum.
A heavy-handed striker by trade, Shahbazyan has fallen victim to faster, cleaner practitioners but generally does well to stay relevant with his own offense. Essentially a fighter who “lives and dies by the sword”, Shahbazyan is liable to enjoy his match-up with veteran grappling savant Gerald Meerschaert.
Known as “GM3” and requiring little introduction, Meerschaert has been a lanky presence in the UFC’s middleweight division since 2016. Already experienced by the time he hit the UFC, Meerschaert’s development hasn’t been exceptoinally quick but it has been fun to watch.
Starting as a pure grappler with wildly aggressive tendencies on the mat, Meerschaert slowly but surely implemented a similar temperament into his striking. At this point, Meerschaert seems more comfortable in fire fights than anywhere else.
Interestingly, this contest is likely to be a classically contrasting one. Despite recent efforts to round out their game, Shahbazyan and Meerschaert stand to pursue their base preferences early and often. The more time Meerschaert spends on the feet, the more danger he will be putting himself into.
Both are offensive juggernauts who prefer being on the front foot and a clash in the center of the cage should be expected. From there, the volatile nature of both men make this an intriguing and exciting match-up to open UFC on ESPN 62’s main card.
A win for either man likely comes at the end of a chaotic affair but there is no questioning the equalizing force of Shahbazyan’s power. If allowed to strike for extended periods of time, look for Shahbazyan to exploit his advantage on the feet and close the show on a grizzled veteran.
Borralho vs. Cannonier: Caio Borralho by Points @ $3.00
Ricci vs. Hill: Angela Hill @ $2.05
Valentin vs. Loder: Robert Valentin by KO/TKO @ $4.50
Santos vs. Ofli: Kaan Ofli @ $2.70
Morales vs. Magny: Michael Morales by KO/TKO @ $3.10
Shahbazyan vs. Meerschaert: Edmen Shahbazyan by KO/TKO @ $1.67
Marshall vs. Buzukja: Dennis Buzukja @ $2.20
Reese vs. Medina: Zachary Reese by KO/TKO @ $2.25
Borshchev vs. Llontop: Viacheslav Borshchev by KO/TKO @ $2.60
Cavalcanti vs. Nunes: Jacqueline Cavalcanti by Points @ $2.00
Fletcher vs. Ramaska: Nathan Fletcher by Points @ $8.00
Cong vs. Leonardo: Cong Wang by KO/TKO @ $2.10