Unexpected changes to UFC on ESPN 61 have left the card in a slim, 10-fight state but the remaining bouts are intriguing showdowns. The main card remains filled out with six compelling match-ups, all of which except one will be held at welterweight or below. This speedy event will once again land in the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
Serghei Spivac may have come up short in his last showing but has managed a solid 3-1 verdict overall in his last four. A two-round effort against Ciryl Gane highlighted a vulnerability to sharp strikers but Spivac’s development has been trending upward as a whole. Of his last three wins, all were built on the back of effective offensive grappling while his biggest hurdles came when he was forced onto the back foot. Interestingly, one of Spivac’s earliest struggles was a loss to Marcin Tybura over four years ago. In that contest, Tybura found advantages everywhere and was able to control positions throughout in both tie-ups and on the mat. Once again, Tybura brings the same weapons to the table and while both men have improved since their first meeting, there is something to be said about Tybura’s functionality. Initially beginning his UFC stint at a meager 2-3, Tybura has climbed up to a 12-7 record in the organization by virtue of a well-rounded set of skills applied in an experienced, grimy manner. Tybura is not the most aesthetically pleasing fighter on the roster but he is economical and effective. The same things that troubled Spivac in 2020 are bound to give him trouble in current day, even as Tybura pushes 40-years-old. Ironically, Spivac may have his best success in pure striking exchanges but unfortunately it is unlikely he can consistently keep this fight at range. Tybura is truly an underrated veteran at this point and has what it takes to grind his way to another win here, even if he has to make it messy.
Though only 1-2 in his last three outings, Chris Gutierrez has been sharing the cage with elite talent and standing toe-to-toe with them. A professional of over a decade who has spent nearly six in the UFC alone, the resume of Gutierrez has grown to an impressive state; all the while, he has managed an 8-3 tally in the organization. A solid striker with excellent takedown defense, Gutierrez has clearly improved in recent years even as his record has taken some hits. There is something to be said about consistent, diverse offenses fueled by deep gas tanks that have given Gutierrez trouble in the past but few outside of the upper echelon can even output that. Quang Le is one of many current and upcoming Chinese fighters looking to break into the mainstream. As the UFC rapidly expands operations in Asia, stand-out prospects like Quang Le rear their heads more and more. A perfect 8-0 as a pro, Le’s resume is limited but he has demonstrated an impressive set of well-rounded skills. Most prominently, his striking looks sharp and he has already shown indications of a perceptive counter-puncher with deceptive power. On paper, Le is a jack of all trades but realistically he will be looking to land heavy shots early and often against Chris Gutierrez. Historically, Gutierrez has been a tough nut to crack and low kicks have aided in the process. Unfortunately, Le doesn’t go low with kicks very frequently; what he does possess is a menacing control of distance and a thudding left hook. While I don’t expect Le to find enough success to win rounds or put Gutierrez down, he has the look of a fighter who won’t be completely out of his depth. Making his UFC debut on approximately one-week notice will do Le no favors as he gets outworked by the vastly experienced Gutierrez. Look for Le to come up short but put on a stock-raising performance.
After an explosive win on Dana White’s Contender Series that needed only 79 seconds, Danny Barlow earned his contract to the UFC. He capitalized on the opportunity with a third round finish of Josh Quinlan. A large, powerful welterweight with a seemingly deceptive gas tank, Barlow has burst onto the scene as a wildly intriguing prospect with accurate, thudding hands. Though his punching power ultimately drops his foe more often than not, Barlow should be given early credit for his ability to land solid shots consistently. Occasionally overzealous and needlessly chaotic, Barlow does his best work when he settles down, pumps a jab, and lets his accuracy and superior sense of distance do the talking. As with many stand-out strikers, there remain questions about his grappling ability; fortunately for him, they are unlikely to be asked by Nikolay Veretennikov. Hailing from Kazakhstan, his first exposure to the UFC family was via a 2021 appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series – an effort stifled by current hot prospect Michael Morales. Since, Veretennikov has been wholly successful in notching three straight wins. A thudding striker who prefers nothing more than walking forward and winging heavy shots, Veretennikov lacks finesse but makes up for it with pure offense. More than willing to take a shot to give one, Veretennikov has shown solid durability against limited opposition even if it is an issue that he gets hit so much by regional talent. Veretennikov brings aggression and reasonable power to the table but there is something to be said about an “eye test” he has yet to pass. Unimpressive foes have exposed and highlighted weaknesses of Veretennikov and it stands to reason Barlow will have little difficulty exploiting the same errors. A “puncher’s chance” always exists for some people but the surer bet is on Danny Barlow enjoying a severe technical advantage this weekend.
Though a perfect 3-0 in the UFC, Jose “Chepe” Mariscal’s run in the organization has been anything but easy. On a streak best described as “unexpected”, Mariscal managed to survive a three-round war with Trevor Peek, land on the winning side of a surprise injury sustained by Jack Jenkins, and then edge out a controversial split decision over Morgan Charriere. Now riding a six-fight win streak overall, Mariscal has begun to find a bit more stability as a fighter, even if his last win was his most controversial. Aggressive and persistent, Mariscal is more than willing to throw hands on the feet but has been finding increasing success with mixing in a takedown threat. Though he is not an overwhelming wrestler in the traditional sense, he has a deep gas tank and a surprisingly diverse arsenal of takedowns. This weekend, Marsical takes on similarly well-rounded Damon Jackson in what is sure to be an exciting bout. The head of Fortis MMA’s Lakeside location, Jackson has found a home as a successful coach and business owner. At 36-years-old and with 30 professional fights to his name, Jackson has rightfully started to think about a life outside of the cage but despite that, he is still showing some extraordinary skill inside of it. A submission specialist at his core, Jackson’s developments as a kickboxer have been an impressive feather in his cap. Lengthy and deceptively sharp, Jackson is often let down more by his shaky durability than lapses in skill. 3-2 in his last five outings, Jackson has remained relevant in the fringes of the divisional top 15 but faces a physically challenging match-up this weekend. Though he will own a clear height and reach advantage, Jackson is not particularly comfortable working off the back foot all night. Pitted against an aggressive foe who likes pressing ahead, Jackson will be forced to work outside of his comfort zone early on. As Mariscal’s offense ramps up, I expect Jackson to fall behind. Having never been submitted, Mariscal will serve as no easy mark for Jackson even if the two manage to land in extended grappling exchanges. All told, matchmaking is not doing Jackson any favors here and it is likely he is a step behind from early on.
Favored this weekend but entering on a three-fight losing streak, Yana Santos has managed to retain a great deal of respect even as she sits without a win since 2021. Married to former contender Thiago Santos and the mother of two children, life has settled down for the woman formerly known as Kunitskaya. At 34-years-old and riding the first losing streak of her career, it is reasonable to begin wondering how much Santos has left to offer the sport. Though she remains a durable and well-rounded fighter with solid striking and sneaky elbows, her output has grown a bit inconsistent. Coupled with leaky anti-wrestling that has allowed five takedowns in her last two outings, and the pieces of Santos’ losing streak begin to come together. That said, Chelsea Chandler is the underdog for a reason as her foe this weekend stands as a clear step-up in competition. 2-1 in the UFC, Chandler only came up short against Norma Dumont – a loss that aged well as Dumont is currently ranked. Representing the “209” of Stockton, California – best known as the home of the Diaz brothers – Chandler brings a gritty attitude into the cage but ultimately is still a work-in-progress inside of it. Chandler is well-rounded offensively but does best when she can act as the hammer from the opening bell. Though resilient, she has a far easier time ramping her success than she does kick-starting momentum in tense bouts. Chandler’s record is unassuming at a light 6-2 overall but she has been a professional for roughly six years and is showing the look of someone turning a corner as a fighter. Two successful takedowns in a gritty upset win over Josiane Nunes went a long way in showing she can persevere and find an intelligent path to victory. Chandler will need to employ a similar strategy against Santos, arguably a more experienced user of the same archetype. I expect a proper tense fight to unfold here but look for Chandler to tip the scales with critical takedown attempts and a more consistent offense.
A clear betting favorite this weekend, Charalampos Grigoriou is looking to rebound from a decision loss to Chad Anheliger five months ago. Faced with a superior striker, the other aspects of Grigoriou’s game came to the forefront. Four successful takedowns helped narrow the gap on the scorecards but ultimately Grigoriou was severely outpaced on the feet. Fighting out of Longo and Weidman MMA, his well-rounded nature is thus unsurprising but despite better-than-expected grappling chops, Grigoriou has yet to record a submission as a professional. Though better known for his thudding power, those underrated mat skills will work well to Grigoriou’s advantage when he takes on grappling-focused Toshiomi Kazama. Officially 0-2 in the UFC, Kazama couldn’t make it out of the first round of either loss and now has his back against the wall this weekend. Prone to exciting bouts that quickly determine a winner, Kazama can be expected to maintain a solid pace from the opening bell but will likely be at a disadvantage on the feet. A consistent grappler but a defensively liable striker, Kazama is sometimes too brave for his own good in obliging hectic exchanges with heavier handed fighters. The deck appears stacked against Kazama yet again, as he will likely be forced to drag this fight to the floor for any hope of victory. After being hit with twice as many strikes as he threw last time out, Charalampos Grigoriou should be pleasantly surprised by the plodding, immobile nature of Kazama.
Spivac v Tybura: Tybura @$2.30
Gutierrez v Le: Gutierrez By Points @1.87
Barlow v Veretennikov: Barlow By KO/TKO @ $2.20
Marsical v Jackson: Mariscal By Points @ $3.00
Santos v Chandler: Chandler @ $2.20
Grigoriou v Kazama: Grigoriou By KO/TKO @ $2.00
Rosa v Kianzad: Rosa By Points @$3.30
Williams v Diniz: Diniz @$2.65
Zalal v Errens: Zalal By Submission @ $4.00
Luciano v Alencar: Luciano By Points @ $2.20