Paris Day 9 | Best Bets

Paris Day 9 | Best Bets

The action in Paris stays hot heading into Day 9, with one of the marquee events — the men’s 100m final — set to light up the Stade de France on Monday morning.

Kiwis feature heavily across the programme again, with Lauren Bruce beginning her campaign in the hammer throw qualifiers, Niamh Fisher-Black and Kim Cadzow fighting it out in the women’s cycling road race and much more. What better way to close out the weekend than with some late-night viewing from Paris?

Men’s Athletics: 100m Final
To Win Gold — Kishane Thompson ($1.57)

Monday, 7:55am
One of the marquee events of Paris takes place on Monday morning, with the men’s 100m final set to stop the world in its tracks. While the star power of years gone by may be missing, that arguably sets up a more intriguing race, with a number of true contenders set to line up.

Italy’s Marcell Jacobs is the defending champion but he’s largely struggled since his 2021 glory, with regular injuries seeing him fail to regain his gold medal form. A 9.92-second run in June was his best effort this season, which may suggest that he is returning to form, but he will need to show massive improvement if he is to trouble the best of the best.

Leading that elite group is Jamaica’s Kishane Thompson. The 23-year-old owns the best time of the season, with a blistering 9.77 just five weeks ago at the Jamaican trials in what was an unexpectedly good performance from the youngster. That’s tipped the competition on its head and given the likes of Noah Lyles and Oblique Seville a lot to think about.

Seville, a fellow Jamaican, was second at the Jamaican trials, recording a season best of 9.82, inserting himself as one to watch in Monday morning’s showdown, but the second-fastest time of the season belongs to Kenya’s Ferdinand Omanyala. Omanyala ran a blistering 9.79 in the altitude of Kenya — an eye opening result — and if he can replicate that in Paris, he may well be leaving with gold.

Lyles, the bronze winner in the 200m in Tokyo, has been working hard on his 100m since 2021 and it has been paying dividends, having won last year’s world championships in a time of 9.83, and he’s topped that time this season, with a 9.81 just over one month ago.

The true gold medal contenders drop off after that, with the likes of Benjamin Richardson, Fred Kerley and Akani Simbine not having reached the elite level in 2024. Young British sprinter Louie Hinchliffe showed off his potential in qualifiers, recording the best time of 9.98, but he’s likely not ready for this stage just yet.

Thompson looks to be a class above in 2024 and is the justified favourite. At a price of $2.20, I am happy betting on the young Jamaican to break through at the highest level after what we saw in the Jamaican trials.

Outside of Thompson, it’s Omanyala who represents the best value. Gold looks to be out of his reach, but a repeat of his lightning-fast run just over a month ago may well earn him a medal on Monday morning.

Best: To Win Gold — Kishane Thompson ($1.57)
Value: To Win A Medal — Ferdinand Omanyala ($7.50)

Women’s Basketball: Japan $3.60 v Belgium $1.28
Belgium -8.5 ($1.90)

Sunday, 9:00pm
Heading into the final game of group play, Japan are 0-2 and at the bottom of Group C. A win will give them a chance of finishing as one of the third-place qualifiers to head through to the quarterfinals, but their form suggests that it may be a difficult result to pull off. After a 26-point defeat against the USA in their opening game, the Japanese couldn’t respond in their second game, falling to Germany 64-75. Maki Takada has been red-hot in Paris, averaging 19.5 points per game so far, but the offensive support hasn’t been there, and that will hurt Japan’s chances on Sunday night.

Belgium are also 0-2 and staring down the barrel of elimination in Paris. Their first game against Germany couldn’t have been much more disappointing, looking disconnected on defence and struggling to hit their outside shots, falling to a 69-83 defeat despite being sizeable favourites. They shored things up a little in their next outing, taking on the always-dominant USA, as Julie Vanloo, Antonia Delaere and Emma Meesseman combined for 51 points, but they had no answer for the stacked lineup of the Americans as they fell to a 74-87 defeat. And while we haven’t seen an impressive display from the Belgians yet, they are a class above compared to their Japanese counterparts. These teams met in a friendly just two weeks ago, with Belgium prevailing 75-65, and I expect a similar result to play out on Sunday night.

Women’s Cycling: Road Race
To Win A Medal — Lorena Wiebes ($1.98)

Monday, 12:00am
The road cycling events in Paris draw to a close early on Monday morning with the women’s road race. Lotte Kopecky finds herself as the favourite, taking part in her second event in Paris after a sixth-place finish in the individual time trial. She can count herself unlucky to not have placed higher after being caught in a crash in the time trial, but should she be fully recovered by Monday morning, she has every chance to claim gold.

Owning the title of the current world champion, the Belgian has found some great form heading into this event, including a second-place finish at the Giro d’Italia Women, but there will be no shortage of cyclists trying to claim that position on top of the podium.

Kopecky’s SD Worx-Protime teammate in the WorldTour, Lorena Wiebes, may well be her closest contender. Usually at the top of the finish in WorldTour races, Kopecky and Wiebes will be very familiar with each other’s strengths and weaknesses, but perhaps Wiebes’ biggest advantage is the strong Netherlands team she has to support her. Marianne Vos and Demi Vollering are gold medal contenders in their own right and with their support, as well as the backing of their coach Loes Gunnewijk, Wiebes will likely be the one from the Dutch team to push for the win.

Similarly, the Italians have put together a solid team for this race. Spearheaded by Elisa Longo Borghini, also in team Italy are former world champion Elisa Balsamo, Silvia Persico, and Elena Cecchini, meaning they can’t be eliminated from contention. With such an impressive year of results under her belt, Longo Borghini is the best chance from this lot to win and there’s no writing them off.

However, with such an impressive Dutch team put together for this event, Lorena Wiebes appears as the best value for money in this race. At near-even money to win a medal, she is the best bet and is worth a stab to win gold too.

Best: To Win A Medal — Lorena Wiebes ($1.98)
Value: To Win Gold — Lorena Wiebes ($5.00)

Men’s Hockey: Netherlands $2.25 v Australia $2.45 (Draw $3.90)
Netherlands ($2.25)

Monday, 3:30am
We have reached the quarterfinals stage of the men’s hockey in Paris, with the eight best performers from group play qualifying for the knockout phase. A massive showdown takes place on Monday morning, with the world #3 Netherlands taking on the world #6 Australia. The Netherlands finished 3-1-1 in their pool, which was good for second place. Starting off strong with two wins, first against South Africa and then against France, the Dutch team’s form died off a little as pool play continued. With a 2-2 draw against Great Britain, a 0-1 defeat against Germany and a 5-3 victory over Spain rounding out their results in Pool A.

Australia finished third in Pool B, progressing with a 3-2 record. Similar to the Netherlands, the Aussies started their tournament strongly, recording consecutive wins to kick things off. Opening their account in Paris with a 1-0 victory over Argentina, the Kookaburras then edged past Ireland 2-1. A 2-6 defeat to world #1 Belgium humbled them in the following game, before they rounded out their time in pool play with a win over New Zealand and a defeat against India. The tables look balanced heading into this clash but the Dutch are the team to back here. They have won four of their last six matches against Australia and their 5-3 win over Spain on Friday showed that they are in solid form.

Women’s Athletics: High Jump
To Win Gold — Yaroslava Mahuchikh ($1.20)

Monday, 5:50am
After looking at the women’s high jump market, the very short price of Yaroslava Mahuchikh may jump off the page at you. But there is a reason that the Ukrainian is $1.20 to win gold. Hot off a world record jump of 2.10m at the Wanda Diamond League meeting in June, the 2020 bronze medallist has steadily worked her way to the peak of the women’s high jump world and a massive upset will need to take place to see her denied of gold on Monday morning.

Perhaps her closest contender, Angelina Topic, who was runner up behind Mahuchikh at the European championships, has cruelly been ruled out of the decider after fracturing her ankle in Friday night’s qualifying round, meaning Australian Nicola Olyslagers will have the best chance of being the person to rain on Mahuchikh’s potential parade. The 27-year-old owns the season’s equal-second-best jump of 2.03m, recorded in Canberra earlier this year, but she will need to elevate herself to a new level to surpass Mahuchikh.

Looking for value in the market, Cyprus’ Elena Kulichenko is a dark horse for a medal. Having recorded the equal-seventh-best jump of the season — and the equal-third-best of anyone in this field — if Kulichenko brings her A-game, a medal is a real possibility. Recording a 1.97m jump just two months ago in Oregon, a slight improvement on that could well see the Cypriot enter the medal equation.

Best: To Win Gold — Yaroslava Mahuchikh ($1.20)
Value: To Win A Medal — Elena Kulichenko ($10)

Kiwis In Action

Men’s Golf

Daniel Hillier & Ryan Fox
Stroke Play Round 4
Sunday, 7:00pm

Women’s Shooting

Chloe Tipple
Skeet Qualification — Day 2
Sunday, 7:30pm

Chloe Tipple
Skeet Final*

Monday, 1:30am

Women’s Athletics

Lauren Bruce
Hammer Throw Qualification
Sunday, 8:20pm

Mixed Sailing

Erica Dawson & Micah Wilkinson
Nacra Races 4-6
Sunday, 10:05pm

Men’s Sailing

Thomas Saunders
One-person Dinghy Races 7-8
Sunday, 10:05pm

Lukas Walton-Keim
Kite Surf Races 1-4
Sunday, 10:13pm

Women’s Sailing

Justina Kitchen
Kite Surf Races 1-4
Sunday, 10:33pm

Greta Pilkington
One-person Dinghy Races 7-8
Monday, 12:35am

Women’s Cycling

Kim Cadzow & Niamh Fisher-Black
Road Race
Monday, 12:00am

Men’s Canoe Slalom

Finn Butcher
KX Heat
Monday, 1:30am

Women’s Canoe Slalom

Luuka Jones
KX Heat
Monday, 2:45am