Paris Day 8 | Best Bets

Saturday, 9:00pm
For the second time in less than a month, the cycling world casts its eyes to France. Following the conclusion of the Tour de France in July, many of the world’s best will gather in Paris for their shot at gold. Hometown favourite Julian Alaphilippe sat out Le Tour to give himself the best chance at gold in Paris and is hot off a stage win at last week’s Czech Tour. He will be joined by compatriots Valentin Madouas, Kévin Vauquelin and Christophe Laporte, who will all be buoyed by what will be a bumper French crowd.

The Netherlands’ Mathieu van der Poel is the betting favourite, with a profile that suits the course, but isn’t entering with good form behind him. Having failed to win a stage at this year’s Tour de France, he will need to be on top of his game to emerge on top of this field.

Belgian star Wout van Aert is behind him in the market and enters the race with a solid Belgium team around him to help support him through the race, with compatriot Remco Evenepoel also a genuine gold chance. Mads Pedersen also shapes up as a true contender. After having to abandon his Le Tour campaign following a crash, the man from Denmark has reportedly recovered well and being a strong climber with elite endurance, he will be in the finishing picture.

Among the Kiwis, Corbin Strong may surprise. The young Israel-Premier Tech rider has had a solid 2024, including a stage win at the Tour de Wallonie, and is an outside medal chance. This is a hilly, gruelling course which suits the Kiwi’s strengths and a special ride, tied in with some good fortune, could see a medal in his hands.

Best: To Win Silver Or Gold — Wout van Aert ($6.00)
Value: New Zealand To Win A Medal — Corbin Strong ($26)

Saturday, 11:30pm
Serbia have looked like the pick of the bunch so far in Group A, but they will need to prove that is in fact the case on Saturday night when they take on Spain. Serbia are 2-0 through their first two games, with a nail-biting 58-55 win over Puerto Rico starting off their campaign. A 15-point, 10-rebound double-double from Dagana Stanković led the way in that clash, along with 14 points and seven dimes from Jovana Nogić, to give the Serbians a hard-earned win, despite some nervous moments down the stretch. Their following game was much more convincing, dominating a very good Chinese team in an 81-59 win. Four players scored in double digits, but it was the Serbians’ defence that won them that game, and that is where they will have to stand tall again if they are to win on Saturday night.

Spain are also 2-0 but both wins have been by the closest possible margins. First-up was a thrilling 90-89 overtime victory over China, with Leonor Rodriguez emerging as the hero by sending the game to OT with a three. Spain then emerged victorious in the extra period, before playing out another thriller against Puerto Rico. After leading 39-25 at halftime, Spain had a third quarter from hell, scoring just five points to surrender their lead and see the game tie up at 44-44. Laura Gil came up huge with an offensive rebound and then two free throws to win Spain the game and keep a top-place finish in the equation. And with so much on the line here, and with two very good defensive teams locking horns, we’ll see a low total on Saturday night. We’ve seen an average of just 126.5 total points in Serbia games in Paris and an average of just 138.5 in Spain’s games (in regulation), indicating that the line is a little high in this clash.

Sunday, 7:20am
Early risers on Sunday morning will be wanting to turn the TV on as soon as possible to catch the women’s 100m final. It’s been a run of Jamaican dominance in past editions, having won the last four golds, but American superstar Sha’Carri Richardson is poised to bring that to an end. Richardson qualified for Paris with a blitzing fast 10.71 in Oregon just five weeks ago, just six 100ths of a second back from her 10.65 PB, to record the fastest time of the season and solidify her spot as the overwhelming favourite in this field.

The Jamaican hopes come in the form of the legendary Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce and Tia Clayton, although the latter enters with very slim chances. Fraser-Pryce, at 37 years old, is just two years removed from a 10.62 run, but age looks to slowly be getting the better of her, with her PB this season coming in at 10.91 in June’s Jamaican qualifiers.

Julien Alfred has the best chance of upsetting Richardson in this massive showdown. The 23-year-old from Saint Lucia has the third-fastest time this season (10.78) and appears to be primed for Sunday morning, winning the 100m at the Monaco Diamond League last month and having shown steady improvement leading up to Paris.

Zoe Hobbs is New Zealand’s sole chance of featuring in the final, clocking a comfortable second in her heat on Friday night with a season-best time of 11.08. That was the 14th-equal fastest time from the heats, indicating that there are some runners a class above in Paris, but the semifinals featuring Hobbs will be an intriguing watch.

Sunday, 5:35am
Make sure you stay glued to the TV after the women’s 100m final for the men’s shot put final.

Ryan Crouser won gold in Rio and in Tokyo, understandably placing him at the top of the market as the $1.45 favourite. But an injury-riddled season may be opening the door to other contenders here XX. Since a world record put of 23.56m last year, the big American has battled with elbow and pectoral injuries, which saw him return to action as late as May this year. Fellow American Joe Kovacs will be breathing down Crouser’s neck, with the biggest put so far this season (23.13m), while the ever-consistent Leonardo Fabbri will also fancy his own chances.

Tom Walsh and Jacko Gill are the two contenders from Aotearoa, securing their spot in the final with solid qualifiers. Walsh is a two-time bronze medallist, first in 2016, then in 2021, and will be a chance of making it three on the trot, but his performances this season puts him back of the leading pack. The same goes for Gill, whose season best of 21.69 doesn’t quite make him a gold medal contender in this elite field.

Sunday, 7:00am
France secured their spot in the quarterfinals with a 2-1 victory over New Zealand, setting up what could be a much-anticipated run in the knockout stages for the host nation. They weren’t without their hiccups in group play, losing to Canada 1-2 in their second match, conceding a stoppage time winner from Vanessa Giles, but overall have been solid. Marie-Antoinette Katoto has been a force up front for Les Bleus, leading the tournament with five goals, and will be the main threat going forward on Sunday morning when they take on the proud footballing nation of Brazil.

The South Americans qualified as one of the top-ranked third-place teams, finishing their time in Group B with a 1-2 record to scrape through. Starting their campaign with a 1-0 win over Nigeria, the Brazilians let a golden chance for their second win slip through their hands, conceding two goals in stoppage time — including a penalty — against Japan to lose 1-2. They did themselves no favours in their final group game against Spain, as, with scores tied at 0-0, the legendary Marta was red-carded in the 46th minute for a high-footed tackle. Brazil went on to lose 0-2 and simply don’t look to have the composure or the class to progress in this tournament. The hosts should do the job in normal time, with class around the field.

Sunday
Zheng played a phenomenal match to defeat world no.1 Iga Swiatek. She was able to withstand Swiatek’s attempts to hit through her and forced the reigning French Open champion into making 36 unforced errors in 20 games played. It will be a different match against Vekic who has proved that her run to the semi finals of Wimbledon was no fluke. The pair have split the two prior meetings and the most interesting statistic is that there has been a tiebreaker in each of those matches. Over total games hat hit in each of Zhang’s last three matches leading into this, and with a gold medal on the line, we could see both players get nervous in a seesawing battle.

After posting a straight sets demolition against Djokovic at Wimbledon, one would have expected Alcaraz to be shorter in the market here. Djokovic will not be able to generate any free points on serve and does not have the athleticism or power at this stage of his career that Alcatraz does. Djokovic was able to expose the single-handed backhands of Tsitsipas and Musetti in his last two matches but they are two opponents that he has completely dominated. We are about to witness just how wide the gap is between these two players at present. Alcaraz in straight sets.

Best of the Rest:
Men’s Bronze: Musetti WIN ($1.77)
Men’s Doubles Gold: Ebden/Peers WIN ($1.91)
Women’s Doubles Gold: Andreeva/Shnaider WIN ($1.95)

Men’s Golf

Ryan Fox
Stroke Play Round 3
From Saturday, 7:00pm

Daniel Hillier
Stroke Play Round 3
From Saturday, 7:00pm

Women’s Shooting

Chloe Tipple
Skeet Qualification
Saturday, 7:00pm

Women’s Rowing

Emma Twigg
Single Scull Final
Saturday, 8:18pm

Men’s Rowing

Tom Mackintosh
Single Scull Final
Saturday, 8:30pm

Men’s Cycling

Laurence Pithie
Road Race Final
Saturday, 9:00pm

Corbin Strong
Road Race Final
Saturday, 9:00pm

Women’s Sailing

Veerle ten Haave
Foil Quarterfinals
Saturday, 10:13pm

Veerle ten Haave
Foil Semifinals*
Saturday, 10:35pm

Veerle ten Haave
Foil Final*
Saturday, 10:50pm

Men’s Sailing

Thomas Saunders
One-person Dinghy Races 5-6
Saturday, 10:20pm

Josh Armit
Foil Quarterfinals
Saturday, 10:33pm

Josh Armit
Foil Semifinals*
Saturday, 10:55pm

Josh Armit
Foil Final*
Saturday, 11;23pm

Mixed Sailing

Erica Dawson & Micah Wilkinson
Nacra Races 1-3
Saturday, 11:05pm

Women’s Canoe Slalom

Luuka Jones
KX Round 1
Sunday, 1:30am

Luuka Jones
KX Repechage*
Sunday, 4:05am

Men’s Canoe Slalom

Finn Butcher
KX Round 1
Sunday, 2:40am

Finn Butcher
KX Repechage*
Sunday, 4:45am

Men’s Athletics

Jacko Gill & Tom Walsh
Shot Put Final
Sunday, 5:00am

Samuel Tanner
1500m Repechage
Sunday, 5:15am

Women’s Athletics

Zoe Hobbs
100m Semifinal
Sunday, 5:50am

Zoe Hobbs
100m Final*
Sunday, 7:20am

Women’s Swimming

Erika Fairweather
800m Freestyle Final
Sunday, 7:09am