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Paris Day 7 | Best Bets

Paris Day 7 | Best Bets

Just like that, the medals are flowing for the kiwis in Paris. With an amazing performance by Brooke Francis and Lucy Spoors in the women’s double scull final, Day 6 got off to a golden start. The women’s coxless four team followed that up with a bronze, before the men won a silver, making for an excellent day at Vaires sur Marne Nautical Stadium for the New Zealanders.

It’s a loaded day ahead, with kiwis competing across the board, including our first glimpse of the New Zealanders in track and field and with a number of medals on the line elsewhere.

Women’s 3×3 Basketball: Australia $1.28 v Azerbaijan $3.60
Handicap 2-Way -4.5 — Australia -4.5 ($1.80)

Friday, 9:30pm
After a flat start to their time in Paris, which saw a 14-22 defeat to Canada in their opener, Australia have bounced back nicely to build to a 3-1 record. Since the opening game slip-up, the Gangurrus have won three on the bounce, starting with a 21-19 thriller over Germany on Thursday morning. Alex Wilson hit the game-winning two-point bucket for the Australians, bringing them back to a .500 record, while Marena Whittle chipped in with nine points of her own. It was Wilson who again sealed the deal in their following game against China, but their biggest win was yet to come, toppling the USA on Thursday night to put themselves in a strong position to qualify for the knockout stages.

Azerbaijan also have a win over the Americans to their name in Paris, picking up a potentially crucial 20-17 victory on Thursday morning. However, that has been their only triumph of the tournament so far, as they started with a 16-18 defeat against Spain. Tiffany Hayes has been the star for Azerbaijan so far, top-scoring in three of their four games, but she wasn’t able to get going against Germany in their last outing, resulting in an 8-12 defeat, and that lack of offence has been a real theme for Azerbaijanis. The Gangurrus have shown a strong defence so far too, which means this one will be a mismatch and I see the Australians winning well.

Men’s Basketball: Australia $1.44 v Greece $2.70
Handicap 2-Way -5.5 — Australia -5.5 ($1.88)

Friday, 9:30pm
Australia simply weren’t good enough in the second half against Canada, getting outplayed to suffer an 83-93 defeat. Everything was looking rosy after one half of play — Josh Giddey’s outside shot was falling, they were forcing tough looks for Canada and Jock Landale was controlling the paint. But the Boomers couldn’t carry that momentum through to the second half, as the defensive pressure from the likes of Lu Dort and Dillon Brooks, tied in with the shot-making of RJ Barrett and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, led to a dominant close to the game from the North Americans. That has the Australians fighting for their lives in this tournament in Game 3, having won their first game 92-80 against Spain. A win will guarantee advancement to the knockout stages, while a loss will leave their fate in the hands of Spain and Canada.

Greece also have a lot to play for here. Despite being 0-2, a win would give them a chance to qualify as a third-place team, depending on the final points differential, making this a very high-stakes clash. Opening their account with a 79-86 defeat against Canada, the Greeks weren’t able to reverse their fortunes in their second game, falling to Spain 77-84. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been at his best in Paris, putting in another massive shift against the Spaniards, posting 27 points, 11 boards and three assists, while Vasileios Toliopoulos was hitting his shots en route to a 14-point outing, but there is a real lack of support around the Greek superstar. The Boomers don’t have a clear-cut defensive option for Giannis — they will certainly try Nick Kay and Will Magnay — but even with his in evitable 25+ points, I don’t see Greece having the firepower to keep up with the Australians. Additionally, Greece’s defence won’t be able to slow down the multiple options that the Boomers have and I can see the Aussies running away with this game.

Men’s Athletics: 10,000 Metres
Yomif Kejelcha ($3.10)

Saturday, 5:20am
One of the first major events on the athletics card in Paris to dish out a medal is the men’s 10,000m. World record-holder Joshua Cheptegei of Uganda will feature, marking his first appearance of the season after opting to sit out much of the season’s earlier action, while Selemon Barega attempts to defend his Tokyo gold. Then there’s Yomif Kejelcha, who owns the fastest time recorded this season. He is joined by his compatriots Berihu Aregawi and Selemon Barega as genuine contenders.

Saturday morning’s race will be Kejelcha’s chance at topping his eighth-place finish in Tokyo, and he has a very good opportunity to do so. His 26:31.01 time that he recorded less than two months ago in Spain hasn’t been topped all season on the track, putting him in good stead for this race. Also owning the season best for the road 10,000m, clocking 26:37 in March, Kejelcha has had a dominant season so far. If he gets a clean run, he’s strong value as the $3.10 second-favourite.

Men’s Volleyball: Japan $2.30 v USA $1.57
Set Handicap 1.5 — Japan +1.5 ($1.65)

Saturday, 7:00am
A lot is on the line on Saturday morning in this clash. The winner of this match is guaranteed a place in the quarterfinals in Paris, while the loser will have a nervous wait on their hands to see if they make it through as one of the third-place qualifiers. That will make for a tense, and likely riveting, match as Japan seek their first men’s gold medal in this event since 1972, while the USA look to repeat their 2008 heroics. Ranked #3 in the world, Japan arrived in Paris with high hopes but have been up-and-down thus far, dropping their first match against Germany 2-3, before beating Argentina 3-1 on Wednesday. Their showdown with Germany was pulsating, going up 2-1 before losing the final two sets, including a 28-30 showstopper in the fourth.

The USA have been more steady, with a 2-0 record so far. First-up was a 3-0 demolition of Argentina, not getting all that bothered by the South Americans, conceding just 55 points. Then came a hard-fought clash with the Germans, which the USA prevailed in, 3-2, but there were plenty of nervous moments. Going up 2-0 after winning the second set 25-17, it looked like the USA were en route to a sweep, but Germany fought back to force a deciding set. The Americans, though, came out on top 15-11 to continue their strong form and put them in a good position to progress to the quarters. However, a determined Japanese team — who beat the USA 3-0 just five weeks ago — is in front of them and this match will go down to the wire.

Men’s Football: France $2.10 v Argentina $3.40 (Draw $3.40)
France ($2.10)

Saturday, 7:00am
The quarterfinals of the men’s football conclude with the host nation taking on an impressive Argentinian side. Les Bleus cruised through group play, conceding zero goals as they swept Group A. First was a 3-0 thumping of the USA, which saw a late French flurry result in a three-goal beatdown, before a 76th minute header from Kiliann Sildilla found the back of the net against Guinea to see the hosts prevail 1-0. They saved their best performance for last, with a second-string squad breezing past New Zealand with a 3-0 win, and with the likes of Michael Olise, Alexandre Lacazette and Loic Bade all looking strong, this French team is looking like one of the true gold medal contenders.

Argentina went 2-1 in group play, suffering a dramatic defeat against Morocco in game one before steadying the ship in their next two outings. Their 3-1 victory over Iraq was assured, with Manchester City forward Julian Alvarez recording two assists, and they finished the group stages with a 2-0 victory over Ukraine on the back of a strong performance from Thiago Almada. This is where the road will end for the South Americans, however. The French defence has looked almost impenetrable, other than during some brief lapses against Guinea, and Les Bleus’ attack will give Argentina too much to think about and will eventually be overwhelming.

Men’s Tennis: Novak Djokovic $1.42 v Lorenzo Musetti $2.85
Over 22.5 games ($1.85)

Saturday
One of two things will need to happen if Musetti is to start winning tournaments – he must either avoid facing Djokovic or find a way to start beating him. The pair have faced off three times already this season with Novak winning all three of them. This has been a far closer series than Novak’s 6-1 H2H advantage suggests with Musetti failing to convert winning positions on multiple occasions. Two of those opportunities have been at the French Open where he led two sets to love (2021) and two sets to one (2024). He broke the Djokovic serve five times in their five set battle here less than two months ago and despite losing in straight sets at Wimbledon, the difference between them was only two breaks. Of their last 9 sets contested on clay, 4 of them have produced 12+ total games so you want to be on the Overs here

Best of the Rest:
Men’s Singles: Alcaraz -4.5 ($1.80)
Men’s Doubles: Fritz/Paul WIN ($2.05)
Women’s Singles: Schmiedlova +1.5 Sets ($4.80)
Women’s Doubles: Errani/Paolini WIN ($1.30)

Kiwis In Action

Women’s Judo

8:00pm Friday: Round of 32 v BIH
Sydnee Andrews

2:00am Saturday: Round of 16
Sydnee Andrews*

Men’s Rowing

8:42pm Friday: Coxless Pair Final B
Phillip Wilson & Daniel Williamson

Women’s Swimming

9:00pm Friday: 800m Freestyle Heat
Erika Fairweather

9:00pm Friday: 800m Freestyle Heat
Eve Thomas

Men’s Athletics

9:05pm Friday: 1500m Heat
Samuel Tanner

6:10am Saturday: Shot Put Qualifying
Jacko Gill & Tom Walsh

Men’s Golf

9:17pm Friday: Stroke Play Round 2
Ryan Fox

10:17pm Friday: Stroke Play Round 2
Daniel Hillier

Women’s Athletics

9:50pm Friday: 100m Heat
Zoe Hobbs

Women’s Gymnastics

10:00pm Friday: Trampoline — Individual — Qualification
Madaline Davidson

11:50pm Friday: Trampoline — Individual — Final
Madaline Davidson*

Women’s Sailing

10:05pm Friday: One-person Dinghy Races 2-4
Greta Pilkington

10:13pm Friday: 49er FX Medal Race
Jo Aleh & Molly Meech

12:03am Saturday: Foil Quarterfinals
Veerle ten Have

12:15am Saturday: Foil Semifinals
Veerle ten Have*

12:30am Saturday: Foil Final
Veerle ten Have*

Men’s Sailing

10:05pm Friday: One-person Dinghy Races 3-4
Thomas Saunders

11:13pm Friday: 49er Medal Race
William McKenzie & Isaac McHardie

12:23am Saturday: Foil Quarterfinals
Josh Armit

12:35am Saturday: Foil Semifinals
Josh Armit*

12:50am Saturday: Foil Final
Josh Armit*

Women’s Rowing

10:22pm Friday: Lightweight Double Scull Final
Shannon Cox & Jackie Kiddle

Men’s Canoe Slalom

1:30am Saturday: KX Time Trial
Finn Butcher

Women’s Canoe Slalom

2:40am Saturday: KX Time Trial
Luuka Jones

Men’s Hockey

3:00am Saturday: Match 5 v Ireland
New Zealand

Men’s Gymnastics

4:00am Saturday: Trampoline — Individual — Qualification
Dylan Schmidt

5:50am Saturday: Trampoline — Individual — Final
Dylan Schmidt*

Men’s Cycling

6:00am Saturday: BMX — Individual — Semifinal
Rico Bearman

7:35am Saturday: BMX — Individual — Final
Rico Bearman*

Men’s Swimming

7:09am Saturday: 100m Butterfly Semifinal*
Cameron Gray