Paris Day 14 | Best Bets

Paris Day 14 | Best Bets

The New Zealand gold rush continued into Day 13, with the women’s K-4 500m team winning a thrilling final before Ellesse Andrews found a new gear in the women’s keirin to win her second medal in Paris — this time a gold.

With Erica Dawson and Micah Wilkinson also winning gold in the mixed nacra sailing, it was a big day for the Kiwis and we have another bumper on our hands, with more chances for gold. 

Lisa Carrington won her sixth gold last night and has the opportunity to win her seventh in the K-2 500m final, alongside Alicia Hoskin, while Emily Shearman and Bryony Botha will seek more success in the track cycling and Maddi Wesche will look to follow in the footsteps of Valerie Adams in the women’s shot put final. Read all you need to know below.

Men’s Track Cycling: Sprint Final
To Win Gold — Harrie Lavreysen ($1.35)

Saturday, 4:00am
The world records have tumbled in the men’s sprint at the Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines velodrome so far. Australia’s Matthew Richardson was the first to accomplish the feat, clocking a time of 9.091 seconds in qualifying, before the Netherlands’ Harrie Lavreysen bettered it with 9.088 seconds.

The next-fastest time that we have seen in Paris came from Israeli cyclist Mikhail Iakovlev, who was eliminated in the ⅛ finals repechages, making this essentially a two-horse race for the gold medal.

The Netherlands’ Jeffrey Hoogland and Great Britain’s Jack Carlin are the two other men who have progressed from the quarter finals, posting best times of 9.760 and 9.839, respectively, but they are a step back in class compared to Richardson and Lavreysen. And hot off a world record, the Dutchman looks too good.

Men’s Football: Gold Medal Final
To Lift The Trophy — France ($1.67)

Saturday, 4:00am: France $2.35 v Spain $3.10 (Draw $3.10)
A pair of footballing powerhouses clash in the gold medal final in Paris, setting up a blockbuster encounter. France conceded their first goal of the tournament in their 3-1 semifinal victory over Egypt, though the final scoreline doesn’t reflect how the game played out. After the Egyptians took the lead through Mahmoud Saber, Michael Olise dished up his fourth assist of the tournament as Jean-Philippe Mateta found the equaliser in the 83rd minute. Those two were heavily involved in extra time, each scoring to send France to the big dance and continuing their winning ways at home.

Spain were also made to fight back from a 0-1 deficit in their semifinal but ultimately overcame Morocco 2-1. Fermín López was the first to find the back of the net and then provided the assist for the eventual winner from Juanlu Sánchez, giving the Spaniards a 2-1 victory. It hasn’t all been smooth sailing for Spain, after losing 1-2 in group play to the very Egyptian team that gave France struggles in the semifinals, and that is one indicator that the hosts will be too strong on Saturday morning. Mateta has been in fine form all tournament, as has Olise, and the home-ground advantage of the French will see them home here.

Best: To Lift The Trophy — France ($1.67)
Value: Correct Score — France 1-0 ($6.50)

Women’s Athletics: Shot Put Final
To Win Silver Or Gold — Jessica Schilder ($2.15)

Saturday, 5:40am
Saturday morning marks the first women’s shot put meeting at this tournament without the legend that is Valerie Adams since 2004, freeing up a spot on the podium, which will be of much delight to the 2024 field.

This event looks to be wide open, with no clear runaway leader in the women’s shot put game so far in 2024. It’s Canada’s Sarah Mitton who tops the 2024 leaderboard, throwing 20.68m three months ago, and she also owns the fourth-best throw of 20.22, which she recorded in March. In the last 12 months, Mitton has added a World Championships silver and a World Indoor Championships gold to her resume and that will give her a pep in her step on Saturday morning.

Chase Jackson, the back-to-back World Champion, failed to qualify for the finals, in one of the shocks of the field events in Paris, boosting not only Mitton’s chances, but everyone else’s.

Hot on Mitton’s tail will be the Netherlands’ Jessica Schilder, who’s recorded the second- and third-best efforts of the season, with 20.33m and 20.31m in July and February, respectively. With that form to take into the final, she is set to be Mitton’s biggest contender. China’s Gong Lijiao is the defending champion and always rises to the occasion at major meetings, but age is not on her side at 35 years old.

Germany’s Yemisi Ogunleye is the other woman to have recorded a throw in excess of 20 metres this year, posting 20.19m in March. However, she has struggled for consistency and she will likely need to be at the absolute top of her game to be in contention for a medal.

New Zealand’s Maddi Wesche recorded the second-best throw in qualifying, posting 19.25m, to insert herself into the conversation, but without a 20m throw to her name, Wesche looks to be slightly out of her depth in this field.

Women’s Athletics: 400m Final
To Win A Medal — Natalia Kaczmarek ($3.00)

Saturday, 6:00am
There has already been significant drama in the women’s 400m in Paris, with Nickisha Pryce, the owner of the fastest time recorded this year, failing to qualify for the final. That has added serious drama to the race and makes Saturday morning’s final must-watch TV.

2016 and 2020 champion Shaunae Miller-Uibo also failed to qualify for the final, after battling an injury for the past two months, which makes the current World Champion, Marileidy Paulino of the Dominican Republic, the most high-profile athlete in this race and a heavy favourite. Running a near-season best 49.21 in the semifinals, she looks primed for the big dance.

European Champion Natalia Kaczmarek also appears to be in fine form. Having recorded a PB of 48.90 at the London Diamond League just three weeks ago, she’s got the potential to win gold if she can slightly improve on that, but she will struggle to match the pace of Paulino.

Ireland’s Rhasidat Adeleke has recorded the third-quickest time this year of anyone in this field, running 49.07 seconds in Rome two months ago. However, she has struggled for consistency. Salwa Eid Naser of Bahrain recorded a season-best of 49.08 in the semifinals in Paris and has been steadily improving since returning from a doping ban, and may well be in gold contention if she can maintain that improvement.

At $1.19, Paulino’s price to win gold carries no value. Instead, we’ll look for the Pole to continue her improvement and leave Paris with a medal.

Men’s Athletics: Triple Jump Final
To Win Gold — Jordan Diaz ($2.25)

Saturday, 6:13am
The men’s long jump final promises to provide plenty of drama, with a wide-open field descending onto Stade de France. Hugues Fabrice Zango is the world indoor and world outdoor champion, indicating that he is the one to beat, but there have been a couple of rapid risers who will be keen to cause a stir in Paris.

Jordan Diaz and Jaydon Hibbert have been the talk of the long jump town in recent months and will look to continue that on Saturday morning. Spain’s Diaz produced a massive 18.18m jump — the third-longest ever — to take out the European Championships and his rise in form means than the world record of 18.29m could be under threat here. Five of the top 11 jumps by any athlete this season have come from Diaz and that consistency makes him the favourite in my books.

Hibbert of Jamaica is more on the raw side when it comes to elite experience, but at the age of 19, he has shown a tonne of promise. His 16.99m in qualifying was good for sixth and he’s a threat for a medal.

Pedro Pichardo finished narrowly behind Diaz in the European Championships and takes a stack of experience into the final. His 18.04m jump in the European Championships was the second-best performance from anyone this season but he hasn’t been able to consistently find the high 17s.

The same goes for Italy’s Andy Diaz and the USA’s Salif Mane. They may well find themselves in the hunt for a podium finish, but their struggles to get near the 18-metre mark in 2024 indicate that they are behind the eight-ball when it comes to gold medal contenders.

Best: To Win Gold — Jordan Diaz ($2.25)
Value: To Win Silver Or Gold — Hugues Zango ($5.80)

Kiwis in Action

Women’s Canoe/Kayak Sprint
Lisa Carrington & Alicia Hoskin
K-2 500m Semifinal
Friday, 8:50pm

K-2 500m Final A*
Friday, 11:10pm

Men’s Canoe/Kayak Sprint
Hamish Legarth & Jurtis Imrie
K-2 500m Semifinal
Friday, 9:10pm

K-2 500m Final A*
Friday, 11:30pm

Women’s Golf
Lydia Ko
Stroke Play Round 3
Friday, 10:38pm

Women’s Track Cycling
Ellesse Andrews | Shaane Fulton
Sprint Qualifying
Saturday, 12:00am

Sprint 1/32 Finals*
Saturday, 12:48am

Sprint 1/16 Finals*
Saturday, 5:10am

Emily Shearman & Bryony Botha
Madison Final
Saturday, 4:09am

Women’s Artistic Swimming
Eva Morris & Nina Brown
Duet Technical Routine
Saturday, 5:30am

Women’s Athletics
Maddi Wesche
Shot Put Final
Saturday, 5:40am