Paris Day 10 | Best Bets

Monday, 7:00pm
The volleyball quarterfinals begin on Monday night with a bumper clash between Slovenia and Poland. Slovenia went through group play unbeaten, dropping just three sets in three games to finish on top of Group A. Admittedly in a relatively easy group, the Slovenians took care of business, starting with a 3-1 win over Canada before comfortably accounting for Serbia, 3-1. Their clash against France was always going to be their toughest, and the hosts started as favourites to win the match, but Slovenia got off to a great start to take a 2-0 lead through the opening two sets. France responded well to force a deciding set, but the Slovenians showed good grit to win 15-11 to take great form into the knockout phase.

Somewhat unfortunately for Slovenia, their prize for going through group play undefeated is a showdown with the world #1 Poland. Since opening their account in Paris with a clinical 3-0 victory over Egypt, the Poles have been shaky. They required five sets to get past Brazil and then dropped their last game of group play, losing to Italy 1-3. That loss made Poland settle for second place in Group B and illustrated that they are far from their best currently. It’s fair to have the Poles as favourites for this quarterfinal, but I see it going down to the wire in what will be a long, closely-fought showdown.

Tuesday, 5:00am
Such is the utter dominance of Armand Duplantis, there is virtually no value to be found in the To Win Gold market of the men’s pole vault. The dominant Swedish athlete is a prohibitively short $1.02 favourite, with Sam Kendricks the second-favourite at $19.

Of course, there’s a good reason why Duplantis is such a short favourite. The 24-year-old has repeatedly broken the world record this year, with his best effort being a jaw-dropping 6.24m in April, and there is almost an expectation that he will raise the bar even further on Tuesday morning.

Christopher Nilsen of the USA is the man who has gotten closest to Duplantis this year, having recorded a 6.00m effort in February, but he catastrophically failed to qualify for the final on Saturday, while the Philippines’ Ernest John Obiena is next in line with a 5.97m just over one month ago. However, Obiena has been met with injury niggles of late, meaning he may not be at the top of his game for this big showdown.

Given that, another American, Sam Kendricks, may well be the best chance of all to finish with the silver. He vaulted 5.95m in February and then again one month ago, proving that he’s in fine form. Another man who’s in good stead for Tuesday morning is Greece’s Emmanouli Karalis, who recorded a 5.93m effort just over one month ago and his best effort could well see him in the medals.

Best: To Win A Medal — Sam Kendricks ($1.50)
Next: To Win A Medal — Emmanouli Karalis ($2.35)

Tuesday, 7:00am
France’s run of clean sheets in Paris continued in the quarterfinals, getting past Argentina to qualify for the semifinals. That 1-0 victory was marred by some ugly scenes after the final whistle, but in terms of on-pitch performance, Les Bleus will be very happy with how the game played out. Jean-Philippe Mateta headed the ball home in the fifth minute of play to get the host nation off to an ideal start, and their trusty defence did the job from there, securing a 1-0 win. Across their four games in Paris, France have now scored eight goals and conceded zero, highlighting just how dominant they have been and they will expect that to continue on Tuesday morning.

Egypt qualified for the semifinals after a thrilling showdown against Paraguay on Saturday morning. It looked as though the Africans’ hopes were fading, as Paraguay held onto a 1-0 lead with just five minutes remaining in normal time, but Ibrahim Adel came to the rescue with a goal for the Egyptians in the 88th minute to force extra time. With nothing coming from the extra period, the game went to penalties where Egyptian goalkeeper Hamza Alaa proved to be the hero, saving a Marcelo Pérez attempt which proved to be the decisive play. Still undefeated in Paris, the Egyptians will enter the semifinals with high hopes, but they won’t have what it takes to overcome this stacked French team. Les Bleus have been formidable defensively and will again hold off Egypt en route to the gold medal game.

Tuesday, 7:45am
The athletics world was looking forward to a showdown between Olympic champion Athing Mu, world champion Mary Moraa and European champion Keely Hodgkinson in Paris, but Mu’s fall in the USA trials meant she wasn’t selected and will not be defending her title.

That’s a big boost not only for Hodgkinson and Moraa, but also for the rest of the field, and now firmly places Hodgkinson as the favourite. The bookies agree, installing her at the top of the market at a price of $1.25, with the European champion having recently beaten her own British record with a 1:54.61 just over two weeks ago. It was a rapid race, with her compatriots, Jemma Reekie and Georgia Bell, running 1:55.61 and 1:56.28, respectively, making the three Brits the runners with the three fastest times in the world this year, but Moraa is very close behind.

The Kenyan has been very selective with her competitive meets this year but ran a season-best 1:56.71 in late May, indicating that, come Tuesday morning, she will be ready to right up there with Hodgkinson and co.

French hope Renelle Lamote recently recorded a PB of 1:57.06, making her the sixth-fastest woman over this distance this season, and an improvement on that could see her in medal contention, but the power of this British trio may well see them win at least two of the three medals and Gill is value here.

Tuesday, 7:45am
The women’s team sprint sees an increase in riders and distance for Paris, now being contested over 750m between three riders per team, promising plenty of excitement.

China look to defend their Tokyo gold medal in what is a tightly contested women’s team sprint field. Germany appear to be their biggest contenders, having enjoyed plenty of success since 2021, with four straight world titles and a new world record in the 750m women’s team sprint.

That puts Germany in good stead for this event, but Great Britain will provide a stern challenge. The Brits won the team sprint at February’s Nations Cup meeting in Adelaide, beating China in the final, but this experienced German team, simply put, has dominated when it has mattered most since Tokyo and we can expect more of that in Paris.

Mixed Triathlon

Dylan McCullough, Ainsley Thorpe, Hayden Wilde & Nicole van der Kaay
Team Relay Final
Monday, 6:00pm

Men’s Athletics

Connor Bell
Discus Qualifying
Monday, 8:10pm

George Beamish
3000m Steeplechase Round 1 Heat
Tuesday, 5:04am

Women’s Athletics

Imogen Ayris, Eliza McCartney & Olivia McTaggart
Pole Vault Qualifying
Monday, 8:40pm

Mixed Sailing

Erica Dawson & Micah Wilkinson
Nacra Races 7-9
Monday, 10:00pm

Women’s Sailing

Justina Kitchen
Kite Surf Races 5-8
Monday, 10:03pm

Greta Pilkington
One-person Dinghy Races 9-10
Monday, 10:15pm

Men’s Sailing

Lukas Walton-Kleim
Kite Surf Races 5-8
Monday, 10:13pm

Thomas Saunders
One-person Dinghy Races 9-10
Tuesday, 12:40am

Women’s Sport Climbing

Sarah Tetzlaff
Qualification Seeding
Monday, 11:00pm

Sarah Tetzlaff
Qualification Elimination
Monday, 11:40pm

Women’s Wrestling

Tayla Ford
Freestyle (68kg) 1/8 Elimination v France
Tuesday, 1:30am

Tayla Ford
Freestyle (68kg) 1/4 Elimination*
Tuesday, 2:20am

Tayla Ford
Freestyle (68kg) Semifinal*
Tuesday, 7:40am

Women’s Canoe Slalom

Luuka Jones
KX Quarterfinal
Tuesday, 1:30am

Luuka Jones
KX Semifinal*
Tuesday, 2:15am

Luuka Jones
KX Small Final*
Tuesday, 2:43am

Luuka Jones
KX Big Final*
Tuesday, 2:55am

Men’s Canoe Slalom

Finn Butcher
KX Quarterfinal
Tuesday, 1:52am

Finn Butcher
KX Semifinal*
Tuesday, 2:28am

Finn Butcher
KX Small Final*
Tuesday, 2:48am

Finn Butcher
KX Big Final*
Tuesday, 3:00am

Women’s Cycling

Rebecca Petch, Shaane Fulton & Ellesse Andrews
Track — Team Sprint Qualifying
Tuesday, 3:00am

Rebecca Petch, Shaane Fulton & Ellesse Andrews
Track — Team Sprint First Round
Tuesday, 4:55am

Rebecca Petch, Shaane Fulton & Ellesse Andrews
Track — Team Sprint Final Place 5-6*
Tuesday, 5:50am

Rebecca Petch, Shaane Fulton & Ellesse Andrews
Track — Team Sprint Bronze Medal Final*
Tuesday, 5:54am

Rebecca Petch, Shaane Fulton & Ellesse Andrews
Track — Team Sprint Gold Medal Final*
Tuesday, 5:59am

Men’s Cycling

Tom Sexton, Campbell Stewart, Aaron Gate & Keegan Hornblow
Track — 4000m Team Pursuit Qualifying
Tuesday, 3:27am