The Warriors appeared to change their DNA during a watershed 2023 campaign, discovering elusive characteristics that seemed certain to become the bedrock of sustained success.
But the 2024 campaign has been like a 1995-2022 Warriors highlights package, with the odd exhilarating moment and gritty victory dotted in between losing the unloseable, suffering massive beatdowns and having their hearts broken at the end of a gallant display.
Sunday’s rollercoaster was a prime example of the latter, bumbling their way to 20-6 and 26-12 deficits, only to spectacularly rally to 32-all and golden point…where they lost via a 41-metre field goal by a fringe Dolphins half who was only good enough to be a back-up at the Warriors in 2021.
Sean O’Sullivan’s amazing strike was a dagger to the Warriors’ already razor-thin hopes of scraping into the Top 8 and was their sixth loss in eight games – against a team that had won only two of their last nine.
It was also the fourth time this season the Warriors have lost to a team on a losing streak of three games or more, after defeats to the Titans in Round 8 (six games), the Raiders in Round 20 (four games) and the Eels in Round 22 (six games).
So close, yet so far
The golden point barnburner at Suncorp Stadium was yet another example of the Warriors being unable to get the chocolates in a tight game.
Andrew Webster’s charges have just two wins and a draw in 10 games decided by six points or less, are 1-1-4 in games featuring a margin of three or less and have lost three of their last five games overall by two points or less.
Pick up wins in those recent cliff-hangers against the Bulldogs, Raiders and Dolphins (and that’s still including that horrific home display against the struggling Eels) and the Warriors are sitting pretty in eighth right now.
Fool’s gold
The Warriors have now been involved in the second-most golden point games outright since the controversial concept was introduced in 2003 – behind only North Queensland Cowboys, who chalked up their 26th in Round 18.
The Warriors’ record in golden point puts them 13th in the NRL in terms of win percentage, winning eight, drawing a record five and losing 12 of those 25 matches – a success rate of 42 percent.
Of those losses, nine have come via field goal – including their last six golden point defeats. During the same period, the Warriors have collected three wins from Shaun Johnson droppies and played out a pair of draws.
Yesterday’s result improved the Dolphins’ golden point ledger to 2-3. Meanwhile, unlikely hero Sean O’Sullivan joined James Maloney as the only other ex-Warrior to produce a golden point match-winner against his former team. Maloney landed field goal daggers for the Sharks in 2016 and the Panthers in 2018.
Canterbury-Bankstown remain golden point’s golden boys, with the Bulldogs boasting a remarkable all-time record of 12 wins, one draw and three losses from 16 games (78.1 win percentage).
The NRL’s most hapless golden point team is Wests Tigers, who have won five and lost 15 of 20 games.
It’s not over…yet
Thought you could relax into the last few rounds with the knowledge the Warriors making the finals is a statistical impossibility? Think again.
Consider this not-too-unrealistic scenario that would see the Warriors finish eighth:
Round 24
Warriors beat Sea Eagles
Bulldogs beat Dolphins
Cowboys beat Raiders
Titans beat Dragons
Sharks beat Knights
Round 25
Warriors beat Bulldogs
Panthers beat Raiders
Storm beat Dolphins
Roosters beat Titans
Sharks beat Dragons
Round 26
Broncos beat Dolphins
Warriors beat Sharks
Roosters beat Raiders
Round 27
Storm beat Broncos
Raiders beat Dragons
Dolphins beat Knights
Of course, arguably the most unlikely part of this equation is the Warriors winning their last three games. We’ll let you know when you can officially let go of this futile dream.
Babbling at Brookvale
The Warriors’ bid for a late miracle begins with a tough road trip to take on in-form Manly at 4 Pines Park, better known as Brookvale Oval.
It’s been a hostile venue, with the Warriors winning just two of their last eight at Brookvale – most recently going down 44-12 in 2022, Nathan Brown’s last match as coach of the club.
The Warriors are 13-1-27 all time against the Sea Eagles, their third-worst record against any current club. Another defeat on Friday night would see the Warriors’ win percentage against Manly dip below their record against St George Illawarra and Melbourne as their poorest against any NRL rival.
The Warriors won the teams’ only clash of 2023 at Mt Smart 29-22, while their Round 6 showdown in Auckland this season finished in a 22-all draw. The Sea Eagles won three straight in 2021-22.
Number crunchers
Statistical standouts in another soul-crushing sojourn:
- Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad typically lead the run-metres count with 243, with Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (a massive tally for a centre of 237 metres) and Addin Fonua-Blake (204 metres) not far behind. CNK is fourth in the NRL for average run metres (212.3), with RTS ninth (192.6) and AFB 14th (177.3). Fonua-Blake is the competition leader among forwards for the category.
- Wayde Egan again topped the tackle count with 47. He’s equal-14th in the NRL for average tackles per game (38.3).
- Along with two line-breaks and a try, Ali Leiataua ran for a career-high 147 metres.
- Te Maire Martin’s three try assists took him to 16 for the year (equal-seventh in the NRL) at exactly a try per game. Impressively, 14 of those have come in his last seven starts at halfback.
- Departing stalwart Jazz Tevaga continues to produce the goods off the bench, making 101 metres from 11 runs and 34 tackles in 39 minutes from the pine.