Evan Psarras previews every game in Round 25 of the 2024 NRL Premiership.
The Tigers held on for a dramatic win over the Rabbitohs but will need to take their game to another level if they are to cause another upset. The Sea Eagles are flying following a 5th win in their last 6 games and have one eye on a home final game. The Tigers will be without the duo of Doueihi and Laulilii with the Eagles also forced into some changes. Talau sustained a pectoral injury and will be replaced by Koula while the return of Lawton sees Ben Trbojevic slide back to the bench.
Head To Head:
This matchup has been dominated by the Sea Eagles in recent years but that will come as no surprise. They have won the last 6 meetings with an average winning margin of 23.7 points across those games. The Sea Eagles have scored 30+ points in all but one of those games while the Tigers have averaged a mediocre 14ppg in those matches. The Eagles have a solid 14-6 record in the last 20 clashes as the betting elect, but the Tigers are a notable 4-4 in the last 8 as a home underdog. There is more good news for Tigers fans as they have won the last 4 battles between the two sides at Leichhardt Oval. The only downside is that this is the first time they will go to battle at this ground since 2019.
Stats That Matter:
Wins in 5 of their last 6 have all but secured the Sea Eagles a spot in the finals and their attack makes them a threat against any opposition. They have averaged 36.4ppg in their last 5 and there has been no stopping Tom Trbojevic. He has 6 tries and 9 try assists in his last 5 games and will have a huge chance of claiming a second Dally M Medal if he can close out the last three weeks in style. The Eagles have covered the line in their last 3 away games with the Over hitting in 8 of their last 11 road matches. The Tigers were an Under team in the first two thirds of the season but there have been an average of 55.6 total match points in their last 5.
Prediction:
We were chips in Tigers at the line and for the upset win, and they delivered. That said, they have been plagued with inconsistency and it is the reason why they have been glued to the bottom of the ladder for an extended period. In comparison, the Sea Eagles are an excellent momentum side and a 9-4 over record in their last 13 following a win reflects this. They have a 62% success rate at the line on the back of a win in the last year and will force the Tigers to play an expansive style and chase points. It makes for a very open encounter with the Eagles to run up a big score and keep the pressure on those above them for a top 4 finish.
Tips:
Best Bet: Over 53.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Sea Eagles 41 points or more, Tom Trbojevic Anytime Tryscorer, Koula Anytime Tryscorer, Saab Anytime Tryscorer ($9.36)
Despite taking a home game on the road to Bundaberg last week, the Bulldogs improved their home record to a perfect 10-0 with a victory over the Dolphins. They are now chasing a 5th consecutive win, and a double shot come finals time if they can sneak into the top 4. Twelve months is a long time in the NRL and the Warriors are an example of this. This time last year they were sitting 3rd on the ladder but their focus this time around is rewarding their fans with victory in their last home game of the season and giving Shaun Johnson the farewell he deserves.
Head To Head:
The Warriors had won 6 in a row in this series prior to the Bulldogs 13-12 golden point win in Round 18 and despite the loss, it was one of the Warriors best games of the season. Despite losing a host of players during the match they fought until the very end – something fans have not seen from them in the last month. The Warriors have won their last 5 when hosting the Bulldogs and dating further back have covered the line in 6 of the last 7 as the home side. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 clashes overall and has held on in 5 of the last 7 when the Warriors have been listed as the home team.
Stats That Matter:
The Unders in the Bulldogs game last week was the best bet of the weekend games and got the cash yet again. The Under improved to 12-0 in the Bulldogs last 12 games following a win and has also held on in 9 of their last 12 away games. Low scoring games on the road has not improved the Bulldogs record and despite sitting in 5th spot on the NRL ladder, they have won only 3 of their last 12 away games. The Warriors have been profitable in this position over the last year as they have posted a 3-1 record both straight up and at the line in their last 4 as a home underdog.
Prediction:
We have given the Bulldogs a tonne of praise for their improvement this season but are not ready to be backing them to cover a start of this side on the road – especially in what will be the final home game of Shaun Johnson’s career. The Bulldogs Unders record speaks for itself, and a low scoring game will bring the home side into the contest. As bad as the Warriors have been in stretches this season, they have only lost 4 of their last 13 home games. The Unders is a lock with the Warriors at the line is also a great bet.
Tips:
Best Bet: Under 44.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Warriors +5.5, 31-40 Total Match Points ($6.13)
The Broncos kept their slim finals hopes alive with a come from behind win over the Cowboys a fortnight ago and that was followed by another two points courtesy of the bye. Nevertheless, they will need to win their remaining games and hope for results to go their way as the 8th placed Dragons are four points ahead of them. No Reece Walsh means Tristan Sailor, but they do gain Cobbo which should provide an additional threat out wide. The Eels were no match for the Roosters last week and have been forced into several changes. An injury to Greig sees Shaun Lane shift to prop with Sivo back into the starting side following a cameo off the bench last week.
Head To Head:
Suncorp Stadium has been a happy place for the Eels as they have won their last three against the Broncos at the ground. Last year’s 54-10 thumping in Round 25 was at The Gabba a 30-14 win for the Queenslanders in Round 10 earlier this year. The Broncos have won the last three clashes overall and have covered the line on all three occasions. The visitors will have a tough time slowing down Mariner as he has scored 4 tries in his last 2 against the Eels while Dylan Brown has scored in his last two against the Broncos.
Stats That Matter:
An 0-6 record both straight up and at the line in the Broncos last 6 home games is difficult to come to terms with. They were almost unbeatable at Suncorp Stadium last season and will need to reclaim that form in their last two home games – this fixture against the Eels and a battle with the Storm in the final round of the regular season. They will not get a better opportunity to end their home losing streak than this game as the Eels have won only 2 of their last 11 away games with an 18% success rate at the line in those games. There won’t be much in the way of defence from either side as the Over has hit in 9 of their last 13 home games and 8 of the Eels last 11 on the road.
Prediction:
Backing up after a gut-wrenching loss to the Panthers was never going to be easy for the Eels last week. They now head on the road where they have been terrible in the last 12 months to face a Broncos side having one last throw of the dice. The Broncos have no choice but to attack with freedom and it is how they have played their best footy in the last two seasons. They scored 36 unanswered points from the 37th minute onwards in the win over the Cowboys and we should see their wide players feature heavily here as they have allowed multiple tries to at least one opposing player in 9 of their last 10.
Tips:
Best Bet: Over 51.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Broncos WIN, To Have 3+ Tries Combined (Duos) – Mariner/Arthurs ($7.42)
The top of the table clash against the Storm could not have gone any worse for the Panthers last week. Not only did they lose the game and any chance of claiming the minor premiership, but they also now have the Roosters breathing down their necks for second spot and will be without Nathan Cleary until the finals after he sustained a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, a third straight loss for the Raiders means they need a miracle to make the finals. The return of Rapana sees Weakes shift to ⅝ and Adam Cook drop out while for the Panthers, Luai will take control in the halves and will be partnered by Schneider with Sommerton replacing the suspended Mitch Kenny at hooker.
Head To Head:
It has been one way traffic for the Panthers in this matchup as they have won 9 of the last 11 clashes including each of the last five. The Raiders can almost consider themselves lucky as this will be the 4th time in the last 5 seasons that they will play the Panthers just the one time in the regular season. Their dominance is highlighted by a 5-0 line record in the last 5 meetings which paints a dark picture for the home side here. The Panthers have won the last 4 as an away favourite in this series and have successfully covered the line in all but one of those games. The Raiders have averaged a modest 9.2ppg in their last 5 against the Panthers and have scored no more than 12 points in those games.
Stats That Matter:
As has been mentioned after each of their defeats this season, there is no better time to back the Panthers than after a loss. They are a perfect 8-0 in their last 8 following a defeat and have been successful at the line in their last 7. Meanwhile, the Raiders have won only 5 of their last 17 as the outsider and have posted a 33% success rate at the line as a home underdog in the last year. The Over has hit in 7 of the Panthers last 11 away games but that is countered by the Raiders 6-1 Under record in their last 7 leading into this contest. Casey McLean is one to watch as he has scored a try in 3 of his last 4 for the Panthers.
Prediction:
Even with Nathan Cleary ruled out for this one, the Panthers to cover the start is one of the best bets of the round. What has made them the best team in the NRL over the last 3+ years is their ability to bounce back after a loss and no team has done so better than them in recent years. This year more than ever, they have also shown an improved ability to handle themselves without Nathan Cleary in the line-up. Luai has been outstanding when Cleary has been absent with the trio of Fisher-Harris, Yeo and Martin to make a statement in the middle third. Panthers to cover!
Tips:
Best Bet: Panthers -9.5 ($1.85)
Same Game Multi: Panthers WIN, McLean Anytime Tryscorer, 41-50 Total Match Points ($10.15)
The Storm have had their doubters this season but a road win over the Panthers in a high stakes encounter, coupled with an injury to Nathan Cleary, has seen them firm into equal premiership favourites. Tyran Wishart replaced Anderson (concussion protocols) on the wing with Welch a potential late inclusion after being named on the extended bench. Like many others before them this season, the Dolphins found it very difficult to break through the Bulldogs defence last week and the loss has them back outside of the top 8. Mark Nicholls is back on deck in the only change to the side, but the visitors will need more than the 10 points they scored last week if they are to cause a major upset.
Head To Head:
The Dolphins have put up a tremendous fight in their previous two clashes against the Storm, but it has not translated to an all-important two points. The Storm were 24-16 winners in the only meeting last season and earlier this year in Round 16 beat the Dolphins 30-24 in a match where neither side had their Origin stars. Despite being on the losing end on each occasion, the Dolphins were successful are the line in both games and get another huge start this time around.
Stats That Matter:
Win in 11 of their last 13 home games highlight the strength of the Storm when playing at AAMI Park but they have covered the line in only 2 of their last 11 as a home favourite. It indicates there is a window of opportunity for the Dolphins and they have proven to be capable of an upset in this scenario. They have won 3 of their last 6 as an away underdog and have been successful at the line in 67% of those games. The Under is 3-0 in the Storm’s last 3 home games but staying with them early will be the toughest task for the Dolphins as the Storm have scored the opening try in their last 7 games played at AAMI Park. Notably, Warbrick has scored a try in each of the prior two battles between these two sides.
Prediction:
This is a classic let-down spot for the Storm who are coming off their most important win of the season. They were poor in the second half against the Rabbitohs in the week prior to the battle with the Panthers and we can expect a similar dip in their performance for an extended period in this match. The Dolphins have too much to play for so you can rule out a blowout win for the Storm. The visitors have covered the line in five straight games as the outsider when coming off a loss and will be far more competitive than the market indicates.
Tips:
Best Bet: Dolphins +15.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Storm 1-12, Under 52.5 points, Warbrick Anytime Tryscorer ($10.42)
The Knights were the better team last week in their battle with the Sharks, but they failed to execute when it mattered most. A ridiculous penalty denied what would have been the winning field goal from Ponga and a poor attempt from Crossland in golden point provided the Sharks with an opportunity that they took. They must not win out their remaining three games starting here. Cogger, Lucas and Pryce are the three notable changes for the visitors while the big news for the Rabbitohs is the absence of Cody Walker (head knock) leaving Dean Hawkins to partner Wighton in the halves.
Head To Head:
A 12-5 record in the last 17 clashes would indicate that the Rabbitohs have dominated this series but since the Knights improvement in recent years, the two sides have split the last 6 meetings. The Knights were 29-10 winners in the only encounter last season in a match where Greg Marzhew scored a hat-trick. The favourite has dominated the results with wins in 17 of the last 19 battles and that includes the Knights winning their last 3 when installed as the betting elect. The Over has hit in 6 of the last 8 clashes hosted by the Rabbitohs but there have been 40+ total match points in only 2 of the last 6 meetings overall.
Stats That Matter:
This is a spot where the Knights have consistently outperformed market expectations. They have won 8 straight as an away favourite and have an excellent 9-3 line record in the last year when coming off a loss. The Rabbitohs have a streak of their own going having covered the line in each of their last 6 at home. That said, the Rabbitohs have a 33% strike rate at the line as the underdog in the last year while the Knights have a 69% strike rate at the line in away games over the same period. The visitors continue to rank in the top 5 in completion rate (80%) and anything close to that would see them gain territorial advantage in this contest.
Prediction:
After tipping the Knights with the start successfully last week we will be sticking with them here. The Bunnies have averaged a very low 12.5ppg in their last 4 games (all losses) and anything less than 20 points will not get them close to a win here. The absence of Cody Walker further hinders their attack and leaves the duo of Murray and Koloamatangi with far too much ground to cover. The Rabbitohs have been vulnerable out wide in recent weeks and that is music to the ears for the likes of Ponga, Sharpe, Gagai and Marzhew. Like both Knights wingers to score at least one try.
Tips:
Best Bet: Knights -7.5 ($1.85)
Same Game Multi: Knights 13+, To Have 3+ Tries Combined (Duos) Sharpe/Marzhew ($5.45)
The Roosters remain in contention for a top two finish following a 3rd straight win and their 8th victory in their last 9 games. They scored 34+ points for a third game in a row with Dominic Young grabbing a hat-trick. Waerea-Hargreaves returns from suspension pushing Leniu back to the bench with Nat Butcher to fill the void left by Connor Watson (concussion). The Titans seem to have run out of steam after suffering back-to-back losses by 13+. They may be out of finals contention but with Fermor and Fotuaika back, we should see them improve.
Head To Head:
Overcoming the Roosters has been an impossible task for the Titans with the tricolours winning the last 10 meetings between the two sides. That includes wins in each of the last 4 played at Cbus Super Stadium and despite losing 2 of the last 4 by a single point, the Titans have not been able to contain a Roosters attack that has averaged 36ppg across the last 6 clashes. Tedesco has scored 5 tries in his last 3 against the Titans, Tupou has added 5 in his last 5 appearances in this series with Sua’ali’l the other to feature with 3 in his last 2.
Stats That Matter:
With 34+ points in 5 of their last 6, the Roosters have further enhanced their numbers as the most potent attacking team in the NRL. Their entire backline has been in on the act including Dominic Young who has scored 18 tries in 17 games played this season. There has been an average of 55.2 total match points across the Roosters last 5 games and that should continue with the Over having hit in each of their last 4 encounters with the Titans. The Roosters have been very fast starters at this ground and have scored the first try in their previous seven games at Cbus Super Stadium.
Prediction:
We saw the Titans win 5 times during a 6-game stretch and it came on the back of a committed defensive effort. They were able to successfully slow down the ruck and it was pivotal to their success. Cannot see them doing that here as the Roosters lead the NRL in dummy half runs which begin and continue with quick play-the-balls. The Roosters back five (Tedesco, Tupou, Young, Manu and Sua’ali’i) are simply too big and too strong. Kelly is a special to make 2-3 poor defensive reads on his own with Manu and Young to exploit him down the right side of attack.
Tips:
Best Bet: Roosters Over 33.5 points ($1.87)
Same Game Multi: Young 2+ Tries, Tedesco Anytime Tryscorer, Tupou Anytime Tryscorer ($9.82)
The Dragons climbed back into the top 8 with a 32-16 win over the Titans and will fancy their chances of playing finals footy with battles against the Eels and Raiders to follow this in their remaining games. The Sharks made the great escape against the Knights last week and it did not come without some favourable decisions from the referee. Kennedy prevented a certain try with Atkinson slotting the winning field goal when given the opportunity. They now get Trindall, Iro, Wilton and Hazelton back who provide ample cover for the absentees – Talakai and Katoa. Faitala-Mariner is back on the bench in the only change for the Dragons with Jack Bird to continue alongside Hunt in the halves.
Head To Head:
This bitter rivalry has been dominated by the Sharks in recent years with the Shire boys having won the last 8 clashes. The Sharks have won 13 of the last 18 encounters when installed as the favourite and that includes 5 of the last 7 as the away favourite in this series. The Over has hit in 8 of the last 11 meetings hosted by the Dragons including each of the last 4. There have been 46+ total match points in 6 of the last 9 meetings overall in this matchup and the most interesting tryscoring option is Hazelton as he has scored in each of his last two against the Dragons.
Stats That Matter:
Winning consecutive games has not been a strong point of the Dragons. Last week they improved to 9-3 in their last 12 following a loss but their record reads a miserable 2-8 both straight up and at the line in their previous 10 when coming off a win. Both teams have tightened the reins defensively in recent weeks with the Under holding on in the last three games for both teams. There has been an average of only 35.7 total match points in the Sharks last three fixtures in a run where they have held their opponents to only 8ppg. Slow starts have been a big issue for the Dragons as they have scored the opening try in only 1 of their last 10 games!
Prediction:
Sometimes there are certain statistics that cannot be ignored as they carry even more weight than the numbers suggest. That includes the Panthers collecting the points following a loss and the Dragons failing to replicate a winning performance for two consecutive games. The return of Trindall adds another dimension to the Sharks attack but of more interest is their recent defensive prowess. We saw the Dragons struggle to get past the Bulldogs a fortnight ago and could see something similar here. The referees like to keep the whistle in the pocket in derby games (as we saw in the Dragons battle with the Bulldogs) and that will suit the better defensive side more often than not. In this instance, that side is the Sharks.
Tips:
Best Bet: Sharks -3.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Sharks WIN, 41-50 Total Match Points, Hazelton Anytime Tryscorer ($23.27)