Evan Psarras previews every game in Round 24 of the 2024 NRL Premiership.
The Melbourne Storm have occupied top spot on the NRL ladder since Round 13 but the Panthers can overtake them at the helm with a win at home. The Premiers made the great escape with a win over the Eels last week after trailing by 14 points with less than 10 minutes to play. The Storm looked like they would go on with the task when they built a 26-4 lead early in the second half last week, but a comedy of handling errors allowed the Rabbitohs to get back in the contest. The return of Eli Katoa will give them a boost while the home side will have to cope with the absence of both Liam Martin (suspended) and Sorensen (hamstring). Notably, Dylan Edwards and Fisher-Harris have been named on the extended bench.
Head To Head:
They have been two of the dominant forces in the NRL in the last decade with at least one of these two teams contesting 8 of the last 9 Grand Finals. The Storm denied the Panthers in the 2020 Grand Final but they have since won the last three. Due to their success, the two sides have locked horns 9 times since the start of the 2021 season with the Panthers holding a 6-3 edge in the H2H during that stretch. The betting favourite has won 21 of the last 27 clashes which includes the Panthers claiming victory in 5 of their last 7 as the betting elect. The Under has held on in 7 of the last 10 encounters hosted by the Panthers with only 1 of the last 7 meetings producing more than 42 total match points.
Stats That Matter:
The Panthers are chasing a 6th straight win and have won 11 of their last 14 games as a home favourite. The Storm have won their last 5 away games but there is a distinct difference between their away results as the favourite or underdog. They have won 8 of their last 9 as an away favourite but have managed to come away with the points in only 1 of their last 4 as an away underdog. The Storm have held their last four opponents to fewer than 20 points which has translated to a 4-0 Under record in those games. The Panthers have covered the line in only 1 of their last 6 home games with both teams relatively poor at covering the line. The Storm has a 35% success rate at the line in the last year despite winning a large number of games and leading the competition.
Prediction:
Outside of the fact that top spot is up for grabs, both sides will want to get a gauge on where they are at for the upcoming finals series. They are no strangers to one another and the plan from the respective coaches (Bellamy and Cleary) will be to contain their opposition to gain field advantage. Both teams have failed to reach 20 points in 4 of the last 9 meetings with the Storm being held to fewer than 10 points in their last 3 games against the Panthers. There is no better bet this week than the Unders in this game.
Tips:
Best Bet: Under 43.5 points ($1.90)
Value: 21-30 Total Match Points ($6.60)
The Eagles were at their attacking best in a 46-24 win over the Raiders and have now scored 30+ points in each of their last 4 games. The Warriors covered the line last week but experienced golden point devastation for the third time this season. Josh Aloiai returns from injury relegating Nathan Brown to the bench while Koula has been named on the extended bench and could be a late inclusion. Shaun Johnson was ruled out 24 hours before kick-off last week but has been named to return with Te Maire Martin, their best player by a significant margin last week, again set to make way.
Head To Head:
The two sides played out a very rare 22-22 draw in Round 6 earlier this season in what has been a very even series for an extended period. They have five wins each and the abovementioned draw across the last 11 clashes with the away team claiming maximum points in only 2 of the last 11 battles. It has been a case of points, points and more points when these two meet with the Over hitting in each of their last four meetings and six in a row hosted by the Eagles. Both teams have tallied 20+ points in 5 of the last 7 encounters with an average of 51.7 total match points across those matches. Watene-Zelezniak has scored 5 tries in his last 2 against the Sea Eagles.
Stats That Matter:
With 8 wins in their last 9 games on the northern beaches, the Sea Eagles have turned 4 Pines Park into a fortress. They have beaten the Panthers, Storm and Roosters at the ground this season and done so by an average margin of 9 points. It is an impressive record and one that cannot be ignored. The Warriors have lost their last 4 away games and have managed to win only 1 of their last 8 as an away underdog. The Sea Eagles have posted a very impressive 10-1 line record as the home team in the last year and could further improve that record as the Warriors have allowed 30+ points in their last two games.
Prediction:
Last week the Warriors were kind to us when they covered the line, but it is hard to see their defence holding out an Eagles side that is on fire. Tom Trbojevic has led the charge with 5 tries and 7 try assists in his last four games and will be a nightmare for the Warriors to contain. The same can be said about Tommy Talau who has scored a try in four straight games. Can see the Warriors saving themselves for their final home game of the season next week when they host the Bulldogs. The Sea Eagles to win and win well.
Tips:
Best Bet: Over 53.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Sea Eagles 41 Points or more, To Have 3+ Tries Combined – Tom Trbojevic/Talau ($7.26)
There was a perception that the Eels would pack it in for the final month of the season but that has not been the case. They got the better of the Warriors a fortnight ago and last week should have beaten the reigning Premiers. They relinquished a 14-point lead with less than 10 minutes to go and we could see them spoil the party for their rivals in weeks to come. The Roosters have won 6 of their last 7 and are fresh off the bye. Trent Robinson has named the same 17 that defeated the Dolphins while we could see the return of Maika Sivo for the visitors as he has been named among the reserves.
Head To Head:
In recent seasons the Eels have compiled impressive records against many of the top teams including the Panthers and Storm. It has not been the case against the Roosters with the tricolours winning 9 of the last 11 clashes including each of the last three. Dating further back, the Roosters have won 9 straight as the home team in this series and have also successfully covered the line in 5 of the last 6 as a home favourite. The Eels have been unable to slow down the Roosters attack with the Over hitting in 13 of the last 17 battles between them. The Roosters have scored 28+ points in 5 of the last 6 encounters with Tupou scoring 3 in his last 3 against the Eels while Sua’ali’i has crossed for 6 tries in his last 4 appearances in this matchup.
Stats That Matter:
With a 1-5 record in their last 6 following a loss (2-4 at the line) the numbers suggest that we will not see a repeat of last week’s performance from the Eels. They have covered the line in only 2 of their last 10 away games and their defensive woes has seen the Over hit in 80% of away games played in the last 12 months. That is music to the ears of the Roosters who have won their last 4 home games and have a 67% success rate covering the line as a home favourite in the last year. The Roosters have had lapses in defence, but we cannot ignore the fact that they have scored 34+ points in 4 of their last 5 games.
Prediction:
In front of their loyal fans at CommBank Stadium last week, the Eels were tremendous. Cannot see them replicating that effort on the road and if the Roosters can knuckle down defensively in the early stages, they could run away with this one in style. The Over is 22-6 in the Eels last 28 games and holding out a red-hot Roosters attack will be close to an impossible task. The Eels have conceded an enormous amount of tries to outside backs in recent weeks with To’o and Tago both grabbing doubles last week. Expecting multiple Roosters outside backs to score 2+ tries.
Tips:
Best Bet: Roosters WIN/Over 53.5 points ($2.05)
Same Game Multi: Tupou Anytime Tryscorer, Sua’ali’i Anytime Tryscorer, Tedesco Anytime Tryscorer ($8.17)
The Bulldogs extended their win streak to three games with victory over the Dragons and a run of 8 wins in their last 10 has them hot on the heels of the top four. Meanwhile, the Dolphins ended a three-game slide with a golden point win over the Warriors and have climbed back into the top 8 as a result. Stephen Crichton will play for the Bulldogs despite having his nose bitten with the return of Jaemon Salmon the only change to Cameron Ciraldo’s side. The Dolphins will be without Mark Nichols (head knock) with their bench now reading Stone, Hubner, Keeley and O’Sullivan.
Head To Head:
Their one and only meeting to date took place at this ground in Round 22 last season and was one of the games of the season. The Bulldogs looked to have the two points in the bag until Anthony Milford scored with less than two minutes left on the clock. Isaako had a conversion 10m in from touch to win the game, but it sailed wide giving the Bulldogs a 23-22 win. This is the third consecutive season that the Bulldogs are taking a home game to Salter Oval in Bundaberg and they are 1-1 in their previous two.
Stats That Matter:
This one may be taking place at a neutral venue (Salter Oval) but as we saw last week against the Dragons, the Bulldogs army of fans are travelling far and wide this season. They have won their last 9 games when listed as the home team and have a 70% success rate at the line in home games played in the last year. The Dolphins should not be underestimated as they have covered the line in 7 of their last 10 away games and have a 67% strike rate at the line as the betting underdog in the last 12 months. When it comes to the Bulldogs this season, the most interesting statistics are those surrounding the total. The Under is 11-0 in their last 11 following a win and 4-0 in their last 4 home games. They have held their last 10 opponents to an average of 14.8ppg with an average of only 39.1 total match points across those games.
Prediction:
In the Bulldogs battle against the Dragons last week, there were 30 points scored in the first half which included an intercept try and two tries from kicks. Despite this, a single try to the Bulldogs in the second half meant they fell well short of the total which was no surprise. The Bulldogs defence has been impenetrable this season and we shouldn’t expect anything different against the Dolphins. This total should be set in the low 40s so we will not hesitate to back the Unders with confidence!
Tips:
Best Bet: Under 48.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Bulldogs 1-12, 31-40 Total Match Points ($10.31)
The Cowboys blew an opportunity to stay within reach of a top 4 finish following a disappointing 42-18 home loss to the Broncos. The Raiders also conceded 40+ points in a loss to the Sea Eagles with both teams desperate to collect the two points on offer here. The home side will be without Nanai, but the big news is Todd Payten’s decision to drop Townsend and hand the no.7 jersey to Jake Clifford. The Raiders have issues of their own with Rapana’s absence (head knock) forcing several changes in the backline. Kris moves to the wing with Strange to slot in at centre and Adam Cook to take up the five-eighth role.
Head To Head:
This has been a favourable matchup for the Cowboys in recent years. They have won 5 in a row against the Raiders including each of the last three played at Qld Country Bank Stadium. The Cowboys have won 7 of the last 8 clashes as a home favourite but covering the line has not been a strength of theirs. They have been successful at covering the start in only 1 of their previous 6 as a home favourite when hosting the Raiders. Luki has scored in each of his last two against the Raiders but as always, Kyle Feldt is the one that stands out having crossed for 5 tries in his last 5 against the Green Machine.
Stats That Matter:
The Cowboys poor record as a home fav at the line is not limited to matches against the Raiders. They have covered the line in only 3 of their last 9 as the betting elect at home while the Raiders have an impressive 70% success rate at the line as a road underdog in the last year. The Under is 5-1 in the Raiders last 6 games but points have been the trend in matches involving the Cowboys due to their defence. The Cowboys have the 4th worst defence in the NRL at present and have allowed an average of 26.6ppg in their last 5. The Over has hit in 7 of their last 10 home games and there has been an average of 63.3 total match points in their last 3 games leading into this one.
Prediction:
Last week was yet another woeful defensive display from the Cowboys. They have now allowed 20+ points in all but one of tier 10 games played at Qld Country Bank Stadium this season and have shown very limited resistance when defending their line. They continue to leak tries through the middle third with both Broncos starting props (Willison and Jensen) scoring against them last week. Starling has snuck over for a try in 2 of his last 3 against the Cowboys, and in what promises to be a high scoring game, we will take him and Tapine to cross in the SGM.
Tips:
Best Bet: Over 51.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Feldt Anytime Tryscorer, Tapine Anytime Tryscorer, Starling Anytime Tryscorer ($71.39)
The Tigers would need to win their remaining games if they are to have any chance of avoiding another wooden spoon, but their focus should be on building for next season. They have a bye, two games at Campbelltown Stadium and one at Leichhardt Oval to close out the year so have the chance to provide their fans with something to look forward to. The Rabbitohs seem to have tuned out with losses in each of their last three (all by 12+ points) but do welcome back the hard-working Tallis Duncan to the starting line-up.
Head To Head:
The Rabbitohs have won 8 of the last 9 clashes including each of the last four. It is worth noting that the Tigers have taken this matchup to a neutral venue for the better part of 15 years, and it is only the second time since 2008 that it will be played at one of the Tigers traditional home grounds (Campbelltown or Leichhardt). Despite being unable to collect the points, the Tigers have been excellent at covering the line. They have posted a 10-1 line record in the last 11 as the home team in this series and are seeking a 7th straight cover as the home side. There have been 45+ total match points in 5 of the last 6 battles and 60+ in half of those.
Stats That Matter:
You could do better things than put your faith in the Rabbitohs on the road this season. They are 0-3 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 away games, have posted a 2-9 record as the road team in the last year and have lost their last when installed as a road favourite. A 4-10 line record in their last 14 following a loss further suggests they are there for the talking if the Tigers are good enough. Interestingly, the Under is 8-1 in the Tigers last 9 games played at this ground and a low scoring game would further cater for an upset. Both teams have developed a habit of conceding tries in certain areas. The Bunnies have conceded a try to the opposing left winger in each of their last 6 while the Tigers problems come down the other side having allowed a try to the right winger in 8 straight games.
Prediction:
There is no hiding the fact that the Tigers have lost their last 7 games, but they have been right in the contest with 20 minutes to go in a bulk of those games. The duo of Galvin and Bula continue to shine in a losing side while Doueihi has been excellent in the matches he has played in since returning. The Rabbitohs have averaged a mere 11.3ppg in their last 3 while the Tigers have posted 23ppg across their last 4. The Campbelltown faithful deserve something to cheer on, and the Tigers will deliver here with an upset win.
Tips:
Best Bet: Tigers +6.5 ($1.85)
Same Game Multi: Under 53.5 points, Staines Anytime Tryscorer, Myers Anytime Tryscorer ($10.79)
The biggest shock last week was the Titans going down 44-0 to the Sharks. For a side that had won 5 of their previous 6 games to put themselves in finals contention, they showed no fight whatsoever. The Dragons dropped out of the top 8 following a home loss to the Bulldogs and will be without Kyle Flanagan for the rest of the season after he was suspended for biting. Jack Bird has been named on the interchange but will likely slot into the starting 13 prior to kick off while the Titans will be without Fotuaika who will serve a one-match ban. Brian Kelly returns with AJ Brimson named on the bench but there will almost certainly be changes to the starting side.
Head To Head:
An 8-4 record in the last 12 meetings is good news for the Dragons but the Titans have won 4 of the last 7 and the road team has a good record in this series having won 5 of the last 9. Only 2 of the last 9 clashes have produced more than 42 total match points and both teams have scored 20+ points just the one time during that stretch. The Dragons have covered the line in 4 of the last 5 as a home favourite and Sloan is the one to watch having scored 4 tries in his 3 appearances against the Titans and a try in each of his last two games leading into this one.
Stats That Matter:
Bouncing back following a defeat is one of the main reasons why the Dragons remain in contention for a finals spot. They have won 8 of their last 13 on the back of a loss and have posted a very impressive 10-3 line record in those games. In the last year, they have turned to defence to get things back on track with the Under holding on in 77% of games following a loss. The Titans are no slouches in this spot having covered the line in 9 of their last 14 after a loss and a 4-0 Under record in their last 4 away games suggests points will be hard to come by. Moreover, the Titans have held their opposition to 12.7ppg in their last 3 when losing their previous game.
Prediction:
All the numbers are pointing towards a low scoring contest – especially with both teams having leaned on their defence following recent losses. This is the third time that the Titans will be refereed by Wyatt Raymond this year and they are 2-0 so far with him holding the whistle with an average of 44.5 total points in those games. Both teams have performed well on the back of a loss which makes it difficult to split them here. The Unders is the most attractive play with this one a chance of going to golden point.
Tips:
Best Bet: Under 51.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Tri Bet 1-12 – Either Team By Under 12.5, Khan-Pereira Anytime Tryscorer, Sloan Anytime Tryscorer ($5.24)
Just when it looked like the Sharks would slide out of the top 4, they came out and put on a five star performance in a 44-0 win away to the Titans. Meanwhile, the Knights kept their finals hopes alive but will need some impressive results in the final four rounds to overcome a differential of -89. Craig Fitzgibbon has named the same 17 that accounted for the Titans but there will likely be changes with the trio of Trindall, Mulitalo and Hamlin-Uele all listed on the extended bench. Dylan Lucas returns for the Knights and will replace Mapapalangi in the centres.
Head To Head:
The Sharks have won 11 of the last 16 battles but the Knights have bridged the gap in recent years with all 5 of the last their wins coming in the last 8 clashes. Despite an improved record, they have lost their last 4 away to the Sharks with the road team winning only 4 of the last 13 battles overall. The Under has held on in 7 of the last 9 hosted by the Sharks including each of the last 3. The last five meetings played at this venue have produced an average of only 34.6 total match points. Notably, the Sharks are 4-0 at the line in the last 4 against the Knights when listed as the home team.
Stats That Matter:
Few teams have been able to get the better of the Sharks on their own turf. They have won 7 of their last 10 as a home favourite and have posted an impressive 9-3 line record in home games in the last year. The Sharks have also covered the line in 9 of their last 14 following a win which indicates that they are a side that plays well behind momentum. The Knights have won only 1 of their last 7 as an away underdog but have posted a 5-2 line record in those games which could make them a play at the line. Ghis time last year Kalyn Ponga was unstoppable, and we could see more of that here as he has scored a try in each of his last two appearances against the Sharks.
Prediction:
One of the Sharks strengths is their pack but with a side that includes Saifiti, Thompson, KPP and Elliot, the Knights have more than enough to match motors with them. As we saw last week, they just have to get Ponga the ball in dangerous areas, and he will create gaping holes for his outside men to go through. Sharpe scored four tries last week and Feldt did score a double against the Sharks down the right edge for the Cowboys a few weeks ago. With fewer changes to their line-up in recent weeks and Ponga able to stay on the field, the Knight have finally gained a level of continuity. This line should be close to 6 so we will be taking the visitors with the +8.5.
Tips:
Best Bet: Knights +8.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Knights 1-12, Ponga Anytime Tryscorer, Sharpe Anytime Tryscorer ($17.67)