Evan Psarras previews every game in Round 23 of the 2024 NRL Premiership.
The race for the minor premiership is back on after the Dragons caused a boilover in Melbourne last week. They got the better of the Storm 18-16 in what was a defensive tussle. The match between the Sharks and Rabbitohs had a similar complexion but the Rabbitohs offered very little in attack which resulted in a 20-6 loss. The return of Cody Walker should help them in that department while for the Storm, Kamikamica returns with Asofa-Solomona shifting to the back row to cover for the injured Eliesa Katoa (knee).
Head To Head:
Despite both teams featuring in the top half of the ladder in the last decade, it is the Storm who have dominated this matchup. They have won 20 of the last 24 meetings including 9 of the last 11. A 7-3 record in the last 10 at this venue further highlights their dominance and reaffirms their position as the betting favourite. One of the most striking statistics is the Storm’s 17-2 record in the last 19 clashes as the betting elect. They have managed to limit the Rabbitohs to 20 or fewer points in 8 of the last 10 encounters while averaging 25.7ppg themselves during that stretch.
Stats That Matter:
One of the characteristics of a good side is their ability to respond to adversity and the Storm get a big tick in that department. They are 12-0 in their last 12 games following a loss, and a big part of that is Craig Bellamy. In comparison, the Rabbitohs have won only 4 of their last 14 on the back of a loss and have posted a very concerning 3-11 line record in those games. The Over has hit in 4 of the Storm’s last 6 games when coming off a defeat and have scored 30+ points in each of their last 4 games when being held to 20 or less in their previous game. The Rabbitohs have won their last 4 home games but have been successful at the line in only 29% of games as the outsider in the last year.
Prediction:
There is no better time to back the Storm than after a loss. For 20+ years under Craig Bellamy bouncing back after a loss has been their bread and butter. It is the reason they have consistently finished in the top 4 so we should expect nothing different when they take on a Bunnies side with nothing to play for. They have allowed more than 16 points in only 3 of their last 12 following a loss and a repeat of that would see them comfortably cover the line here. Papenhuyzen had a double last time these two sides met and will be itching to get on the scoresheet after a quiet game in the loss to the Dragons.
Best Bet: Storm -16 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Storm Over 32.5 points, Papenhuyzen Anytime Tryscorer, Anderson Anytime Tryscorer ($3.54)
With a run of 5 victories in their last 6 games, the Titans have put themselves in contention for a spot in the finals. They won a second Queensland derby in as many weeks by destroying the Broncos 46-18 in a match where Jojo Fifita scored a hat-trick and set up two further tries. The Sharks maintained a spot in the top four by beating the Bunnies, but it wasn’t pretty as they made 16 errors and missed 44 tackles. There are more concerns for the Sharks with Trindall sidelined with a hamstring strain while the Titans could get a further boost with AJ Brimson named on the extended bench.
Head To Head:
The Titans scored an upset 20-16 win over the Sharks when they last met in Round 18 and it ended what was a 9-game losing streak in this series. Nevertheless, the Sharks have won the last 4 as the away team in this series and have posted a 4-2 record in their last 6 as an away underdog. The Over has hit in 5 of the last 7 clashes hosted by the Titans including each of the last three. Several of those clashes have been played at neutral venues because the numbers in games played at Cbus Super Stadium suggest something very different. Only 1 of their last 6 clashes at this ground have produced more than 45 total match points with an average of 38.8ppg across those fixtures.
Stats That Matter:
With a 3-0 record both straight up and at the line in their last 3 home games, things have finally started to click for the Titans. The favourite tag is not one they have handled well in the last year with a poor 1-4 line record in their last 5 as the betting elect. Moreover, the Sharks have managed to post a 6-2 line record in their last 8 as the outsider so let’s not write them off just yet. The Under is 7-4 in the Sharks last 11 away games and 3-0 in the last 3 battles with the Titans. This lines up nicely with the Titans 6-1 Under record in their last 7 night games so we are unlikely to see them eclipse the half century mark in total match points.
Prediction:
Over the course of the last month we have made constant reference to the Titans defence, particularly their ability to slow the ruck. They have held their last 6 opponents to 18ppg as a result and that figure drops to 14ppg in their five victories in that period. Cannot look past the Titans here as they have finally developed an identity. The likes of Fotuaika, Haas and Clark are running the ball with venom through the middle while Kini has been an absolute star at the back. The kicker is the halves partnership of Foran and Campbell. The veteran directs traffic while Campbell adds a level of flair and creativity that opposing halves cannot contain. The loss of Trindall for the visitors cannot be understated as his kicking game has held them together in recent weeks. Without him, like the Titans to cover and can see the Sharks having significant problems in attack.
Best Bet: Titans -5.5 ($1.85)
Same Game Multi: Under 51.5 points, To Have 3+ Tries Combined (Duos) – Khan Pereira/Jojo Fifita ($10.96)
The Panthers extended their win streak to four games with a narrow 22-14 win over the Knights but will need to improve on that if the Eels decide to turn in a performance like the one that saw them beat the Warriors last week. The 30-20 win over the Warriors in Auckland ended a 6-game losing streak and the same 17 have been given the same opportunity to take on the reigning Premiers. Only one notable change for the Panthers with Daine Laurie returning at fullback and Isaiah Iongi dropping to the extended bench while Dyland Edwards recovers from a knee injury.
Head To Head:
Very few sides have been able to compete with the Panthers in recent years, but the Eels have had their fair share of success against them. The H2H reads 7-5 in the Panthers favour across the last 12 meetings with 4 of the last 8 decided by a margin of no more than 8 points. With that in mind, it is no surprise to see that the Eels have covered the line in 6 of the last 8 clashes as a home underdog, and they have done it on the back of their defence. The Under has held on in 9 of the last 11 encounters hosted by the Eels with the last 4 at this ground producing an average of only 32.3 total match points.
Stats That Matter:
It is difficult to put any faith in the Eels replicating their efforts from last week. A 1-5 record both straight up and at the line in their last 6 following a win increases the level of concern. Moreover, the Eels have failed to cover the line in their last 3 home games – all losses by a double-digit margin. The Under is 3-0 in the Eels last 3 home games and they have been held to less than 20 points in all three of those games. This is further supported by an average of 45.1 total match points in games played at CommBank Stadium so far this season.
Prediction:
The key to the Eels success last week was forcing the Warriors to come off their own line. The Warriors back five combined for a whopping 940 run metres as a result so it is fair to assume that To’o, Laurie and Turuva will have to do their bit for the Premiers. Since the return of Cleary, the Panthers have gone back to a more structured style of footy that is based around the kicking game of Cleary and line speed in defence. The Eels have been able to turn previous battles against the Panthers into dog fights through the middle third and have shown that they are not going to roll over in the final month of the season. The Unders sticks out as the preferred play.
Best Bet: Under 48.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Panthers 1-12, 31-40 Total Match Points ($11.22)
The bye game at the ideal time for the Sea Eagles last week with the trio of Lehi Hopoate, Garrick and Saab all named to return this week. They will be joined by Olakau’atu who served his suspension which will see Ben Trbojevic drop to the bench. Meanwhile, the Raiders put up a tremendous fight in front of a sell-out crowd at Belmore Sports Ground but ran out of time in a 22-18 loss. Ethan Strange returns to the line-up for the Green Machine but they will be without Hosking for the rest of the season after he succumbed to a shoulder injury that requires surgery.
Head To Head:
Historically, the Raiders have struggled in this series with only 6 wins in their last 22 against the Eagles. That record was significantly worse until the last two seasons with the Raiders claiming victory in 2 of the last 3 clashes. The away team has won 6 of the last 8 clashes with the Eagles contributing significantly in that department. They have won 7 of their last 10 away to the Raiders including 3 in a row as an away favourite in this series. The Over is 3-0 in the last 3 between them with 50+ total match points in each of those games.
Stats That Matter:
The Eagles have won their last 3 games when coming off a loss and dating further back have covered the line in 7 of their last 9 after failing to claim the points on offer. Wins in only 3 of their last 11 away games highlights their weakness and that is winning on the road. They have successfully covered the line in only 1 of their last 4 as an away favourite while the Raiders have won and covered the line in their last two home games. The Raiders have won every game when leading at half time this season which will make the first 40 minutes very important for the home side. The Under is 5-0 in the Raiders last 5 leading into this one with an average of 43.8 total match points in games played at GIO Stadium thus far in 2024.
Prediction:
Prior to the 34-30 loss to the Roosters, the Sea Eagles had held their previous five opponents to an average of only 12.4ppg. With their back line intact for this one, we are unlikely to see them concede more than 20 points here. Similarly, the Raiders just do not go away! They have tightened the screws defensively and given up only 16.8ppg in their last 5 (15.3ppg in their last 3 at GIO Stadium). The Unders in the Bulldogs/Raiders last week was the best bet of Round 22 and we will continue to back the Unders in Raiders games as long as Fogarty is in the line up. Last week was yet another example of the value of his kicking game and how it helps the Raiders force their opposition to play out of their own end.
Best Bet: Under 48.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Tri-Bet 1-12 (Either Team To Win By Less Than 12.5 points), Talau Anytime Tryscorer, Whitehead Anytime Tryscorer ($14.68)
State of Origin may have been a plausible excuse for a stretch of 6 losses through Rounds 12 -18 but there can be no excuse for the Broncos last two defeats. After being embarrassed 41-16 by the Bulldogs on their own ground and with the season hanging by a thread, the Broncos were comprehensively outplayed by the Titans in a 41-16 loss last week. They will be without the duo of Payne Haas and Ezra Mam with Josh Rogers and Willison to fill the void. The Cowboys remain within striking distance of a top 4 finish following a 48-30 win over the Tigers, but it was a disappointing result as they conceded 30 points to a Tigers side that played with 12 men for 31 minutes!
Head To Head:
Arguably the fiercest of the Queensland derbies, the Broncos are seeking to achieve the season double over the Cowboys for a second straight year. They have won the last three clashes which includes a dominant 38-12 victory earlier this season in Round 4. Prior to that the Cowboys have won 4 of the previous 5 meetings which suggests we could see the recent trend reversed. The Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings with an average of 51.5 total match points across those games. Kyle Feldt has 8 in his last 8 appearances in this series and is the pick of the tryscorers.
Stats That Matter:
The Cowboys have won and covered the line in their last two home games but have been successful at covering the line in only 3 of their last 9 as a home favourite. They have however won 9 of their last 11 as a home favourite when hosting the Broncos but it is the points total which is of most interest here. Defence has been a concern for both sides all season long with the Cowboys giving up 24.3ppg and the Broncos not far behind allowing 23.8ppg. The Broncos have conceded 30+ points in 5 of their last 9 and neither side have shown the application required in defence. Last week, the Cowboys conceded three tries to a 12-man Tigers side with their goal line defence abysmal.
Prediction:
It has been a dramatic fall from grace for last year’s grand finalists and things could get worse in weeks to come. Their defence has been sub-par, and they have not been able to get away with it like last year as their attack has produced a mere 22.4ppg – well down on the 26.6ppg they averaged in the regular season last year. This year it has been the Cowboys who have relied on their attack to disguise their defensive weaknesses, but the Broncos have the threats (Walsh, Reynolds, Mariner etc) to expose them. We could see 70+ total points as the Broncos will go for broke with the ball.
Best Bet: Over 51.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: To have 3+ Tries Combined (Duos) – Feldt/Taulagi, To Have 2+ Tries Combined (Duos) – Mariner/Arthurs ($17.04)
Bulldogs fans lined the streets of Belmore as if they had won the premiership following a 22-18 win over the Raiders but they are gaining more admirers with every win. Cameron Ciraldo has the luxury of naming the same 17 players and the same can be said about Shane Flanagan and the Dragons after their stunning upset win over the Storm in Melbourne. A full house will be in attendance for the cross town rivalry with the sold out sign going up early on Monday morning!
Head To Head:
The all-time H2H reads 28-17 in the Bulldogs favour but the two sides have split the last 12 meetings. There haven’t been many close encounters between them in recent seasons with 7 of the last 10 being decided by a margin or 13+ points. The Dragons have posted a 7-3 record in the last 10 clashes as a home favourite but are winless in the last 4 as a home underdog (0-4). The Over has hit in 8 of the last 10 clashes hosted by the Dragons with 44+ total match points in 4 of the last 6 battles. The Bulldogs were comprehensive 44-12 winners when the sides met in Round 12 earlier this year. They were able to capitalise on a lack of cohesion in the Dragons defence when Jack Bird went off injured just before half time.
Stats That Matter:
Winning close games has been a major strength for the Bulldogs in the second half of the season with wins in 4 of the last 5 games decided by 1-6 points. Their defence has been outstanding, and they have managed to hold teams to only 16.7ppg so far this season. They have won 5 of their last 6 when installed as the betting favourite but a 2-11 record in away games played in the last year should not be ignored. The Under has held on in 9 of their last 13 away games but most notably, the Under is 11-0 in the Bulldogs last 11 when coming off a win. The Dragons have averaged fewer than 20ppg in their last 5 and only 14.5ppg in their last eight games against teams currently sitting in the top 8 on the ladder.
Prediction:
Declared the Unders in the Bulldogs/Raiders game last week and will be repeating the dose here. In front of another sellout crowd, Gerard Sutton will keep the whistle in the pocket. The Under is 3-0 in the Bulldogs last 3 games with Sutton holding the whistle with 38, 29, and 36 total match points in those three games. The Bulldogs have allowed more than 20 points in only 1 of their last 9 games and that was against the Roosters in Round 16. With the Dragons holding the Storm to 16 points last week, both teams will have a defence-first mentality for the entire 80 minutes.
Best Bet: Under 47.5 points ($1.90)
Value: 21-30 Total Match Points ($9.25)
The Warriors 30-20 loss at home to the Eels last week was far worse than the scoreline suggests. They trailed 30-4 with 10 minutes to play and a few late tries after the Eels were relegated to 12 men has somewhat disguised a horrific performance. Kosi returns on the wing with Tuivasa-Sheck shifting to centre in the only notable change but there will need to be a shift in attitude and application. Shaun Johnson announced that he would retire at the end of this season with his last home game to come against the Bulldogs in Round 25. Meanwhile, the Dolphins slide continues after a third consecutive loss by a margin of 7 or less. Pangai Junior and Nikorima have been named to return with confirmation that Isaako will also play.
Head To Head:
This will be the 4th meeting between them and there have been several similarities in their battles thus far. The home team is a perfect 3-0 and the away team is yet to score more than 20 points. The last two have produced exactly 44 total match points and Isaako has scored in all three matches with four tries in total. Similarly, Watene-Zelezniak has 3 tries in his two appearances against the Dolphins and has scored at least one try in 6 of his last 8 leading into this one.
Stats That Matter:
Many footy fans are still trying to come to terms with the season that the Warriors have had. They were among the title contenders after a brilliant 2023, but the statistics highlight a complete reversal in form. They have compiled a 3-10 record in their last 13 away games which includes losses in their last 3 and a 1-6 record in the 7 games that they were installed as the outsider. The struggles of Shaun Johnson continue with the Warriors falling to 0-7 in their last 7 when he has started in the side. Losing close games has been costly for the Dolphins with wins in only 1 of their last 7 in games decided by 7 or fewer points. If they win, they will likely win by a sizable margin.
Prediction:
The Warriors were admittedly very bad last week, and we took the Eels at the line but there is no way in the world that the Dolphins should be giving away this big a start. The Dolphins last six wins have been by a 1-12 margin with an average winning margin of only 6 points. They have allowed 24+ points in 8 of their last 9 which tells us the Warriors will have an easier time scoring points than they have in the last month. The Warriors have more than enough experienced players with Nicol-Klokstad, DWZ, AFB, RTS, Barnett and Capewell to put in a commendable effort regardless of their recent run. Taking them with the start and to win by a 1-12 margin in a low scoring game.
Best Bet: Warriors +8 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Warriors 1-12, Under 51.5 points, Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Tryscorer ($11.71)
The Knights are among a handful of teams desperate to win as many of their remaining games as possible with the hope of sneaking into the finals. With losses in each of their last 3 and 6 of their last 8, it is hard to make a case for them. There was an improvement in their defence last week but with an average of 12.5ppg across their last four, it is their attack which must lift. No major changes to speak of with Bradman Best still sidelined and the duo of Hastings and Pryce left on the extended bench. The Tigers may have lost 48-30 last week but deserve a mountain of credit for their fight despite having a player sent off. Justin Olam will serve his suspension, and it will see Doueihi take his spot in the centres.
Head To Head:
There wouldn’t be many sides that the Knights have won their last 5 against but the Tigers fall into that category. Those five victories have not come easily as 3 of the last 5 have been by a margin of 6 points or less with no more than 34 total match points in 4 of those games. The Knights have won only 5 of the last 9 as a home favourite in this series with the corresponding fixture last year ending 34-18 in the Knights favour. That came in Round 20 during Ponga’s dream run – something we have seen very little of in 2024. Greg Marzhew has 2 in his last 2 against the Tigers and has crossed for 4 tries in his last 5 leading into this contest.
Stats That Matter:
A 4-7 record in their last 11 following a loss is below par for the Knights but they have been successful at the line in 73% of those games. The Under has held on in 7 of those 11 games and is also 9-4 in Knights home games in the last year. The Tigers have lost their last 9 away games and a 2-11 line record in their last 13 road games is a telling statistic. They looked dangerous enough in the attacking zone last week, but we cannot use that as a gauge as the Cowboys are the 4th worst defensive side in the competition despite sitting 5th on the ladder. Points have been very hard to come by at this stadium with an average of 39.1 total match points in Knights games at McDonald Jones Stadium this season.
Prediction:
With an average of 17.5ppg this season, the Knights are one of the most boring teams to watch. Outside of Ponga, their attack offers very little in terms of unpredictability with the selections of Gamble and Crossland in the halves highlighting a defensive strategy from coach Adam O’Brien. The Knights defend their line significantly better than the Cowboys and that will make it harder for the visitors to score. It would not be a surprise if neither side was able to score 20+ points. Unders is the standout pick with the Tigers a sneaky chance of taking the points.
Best Bet: Under 51.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Tigers 1-12, To Have 2+ Combined Tries (Duos) – Doueihi/Marzhew ($12.27)