NRL Tips & Preview | Round 22

The Cowboys improved to 7-2 in their last 9 with a win over the Sharks and are now within striking distance of a top 4 finish. The victory came at a price with Cotter (concussion) and Taumalolo (cheekbone) both unavailable. Meanwhile, the Tigers suffered a 5th consecutive loss with Laulilii (concussion) and Starford To’a (hamstring) among the casualties. Latu Fainu has been named to partner Galvin in the halves with Koroisau reverting to hooker and Da Silva relegated to the bench. Klemmer returns but Doueihi will be rested for a second consecutive game.

Head To Head:
The Tigers were huge 66-18 winners in the corresponding fixture in Round 12 last year, but the Cowboys have had their revenge since. They embarrassed their counterparts in a 74-0 thrashing six weeks later with four players (Taulagi, Drinkwater, Holmes and Taulagi) scoring 2+ tries. The onslaught continued in their most recent meeting with Holmes, Feldt and Nanai scoring two each in a 42-28 victory earlier this season. The Cowboys have won 5 of the last 7 meetings and 7 of the last 9 overall when installed as the favourite. The scores of their recent matches is part of a trend as the Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.

Stats That Matter:
A try virtually on the full time siren from Koroisau last week saw the Tigers to cover the line for a third straight game but a 6-13 line record in their last 19 following a loss suggests that their luck will soon run out. This is accompanied by the Cowboys 3-0 line record in their last 3 away games, not to mention four consecutive outright wins on the road. The Over has hit in 7 of the Cowboys last 11 on the back of a win and with the Tigers defence in shambles (allowed 41.6ppg across last 5), a free-flowing Cowboys attack shouldn’t have any trouble scoring.

Prediction:
With the Tigers defence non-existent over the last month and the Cowboys desperate to grab a top 4 spot and a home final, this one could get very ugly for the home side. The Cowboys won’t get a better opportunity than this match to improve their points differential, and I expect them to take full advantage. Feldt scored a hat-trick last week and has crossed for 4 tries in his last 4 against the Tigers. Nanai is also poised to strike as he has scored in each of his last 6 appearances against the Tigers with 7 tries in total. We might hear the boo’s ring out from the Leichhardt faithful at some point in this contest.

Best Bet: Over 51.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Cowboys -9.5, Feldt Anytime Tryscorer, Nanai Anytime Tryscorer ($4.41)

The Warriors kept their slim finals hopes alive with a win over the Tigers last week and can ill-afford to drop points against an Eels side that is already looking ahead to ‘Mad Monday’. The Eels hung in there early on against the Storm, but the competition leaders built an unassailable lead with a 26-0 run. No major changes to speak of for the visitors while the Warriors will be boosted by the return of several key players including Nicol-Klokstad and Shaun Johnson who will partner Harris-Tevita in the halves (Te Maire Martin dropped). Pompey and Berry remain sidelined and have been joined by Jackson Ford (knee).

Head To Head:
The Eels were seeking a 5th straight win in this series when the two sides met in Round 19 last season, but the Warriors prevented that by posting a crushing 46-10 win. Interestingly, the two sides have split the last 12 meetings played in Sydney which is a rarity for the Warriors against Sydney-based sides. It then comes as no surprise to see that they have won 7 of the last 8 clashes at Go Media Stadium and meet the Eels at the perfect time – out of contention and with nothing to play for. The Warriors have covered the line in 3 of the last 4 as a home favourite in this matchup with the Over hitting in each of the last 5 in this series overall.

Stats That Matter:
The road has not been a pretty place for the Eels in recent times. They are 0-8 both straight up and at the line in their last 8 away games and have covered the line in only 3 of their last 14 games overall as the betting underdog. Despite the lines getting bigger each week, the Eels have managed to cover the start only 4 times in their last when coming off a loss with the Over hitting in 63% of those games. The Warriors have been reliable as a home favourite having lost only 2 of their last 9 but they have underperformed the market by posting a terrible 1-8 line record along the way. In the last year across all games, the Warriors have successfully covered the line just 19% of the time when installed as the betting elect.

Prediction:
If things don’t go according to plan for the Warriors in this one Andrew Webster will have to explain his decision to go with Harris-Tevita instead of Te Maire Martin. The latter has arguably been their best player with 16 try assists in his last 9 appearances and we cannot ignore the fact that the Warriors are 0-6 in their last 6 games with Shaun Johnson in the run-on side. In a positive for the Warriors, they have held their last 4 opponents to 16.25ppg so there may not be as many points as expected. The Under is 3-0 in the Eels last 3 and with several players seeking new contracts, we could see them dig their heels. The Warriors have managed to score only 19.2ppg across their last 5 which makes it difficult to see them covering this big a start.

Best Bet: Eels +13.5 ($1.96)
Same Game Multi: Warriors 1-12, 41-50 Total Match Points, Sean Russell Anytime Tryscorer ($20.67)

Losses in 6 of their last 8 have seen the Dolphins slide down to 8th on the NRL ladder but Wayne Bennett has named the same 17 that surrendered a 14-0 lead after only 22 minutes against the Titans in Round 21. The Roosters escaped the same fate after almost being run down by the Sea Eagles after they led 22-0. The 34-30 win was good for the two points, but Trent Robinson had plenty to say following the game. The return of Joseph Manu comes at the right time for the tricolours as his replacement Michael Jennings was handed a two-match ban.

Head To Head:
The Dolphins stunned the Roosters 28-18 in their first ever game last season, but the Roosters did level the ledger later in the year with a 30-14 win. Jamayne Isaako crossed for three tries across the two clashes with Sua’ali’i the only other player to score in both games. The home team is 2-0 so far in this series with both matches producing between 41-50 total match points.

Stats That Matter:
This is only the second time in the Roosters last six games that they will play away from home. Perth is a neutral venue but a 5-4 record in the last year as an away favourite highlights their inconsistency in this scenario. The Under is 12-5 in Roosters games following a win in the last year and they are certain to tighten the screws defensively after allowing 30 to the Sea Eagles last week. The Underdog has covered the line in 10 of the Dolphins last 13 matches and we don’t need a time machine to know what their game plan will be. They continue to rank in the top 5 for completion rate (81%) and controlling the ruck will be a priority as the Roosters lead the competition in dummy half runs.

Prediction:
We have seen the Roosters put up some monster figures in attack, but they have not had the same application defensively in recent weeks. The Dolphins are fast starters and have scored the first try in 8 of their last 10 games. If they are allowed to get their noses in front, they will shift to a very methodical brand of football that involves set completion and playing through the middle third. Having Plath at hooker will help them in this matchup as he is an excellent defender one and one which will limit the Roosters effectiveness in generating ruck speed. The priority from both coaches will be defence which makes the Unders the best play.

Best Bet: Under 49.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Dolphins +11.5, Bostock Anytime Tryscorer, Sua’ali’i Anytime Tryscorer ($11.59)

Just when it seemed like the Broncos would go on a run, they turned in their worst performance of the season. They went down 41-16 at Suncorp Stadium to the Bulldogs and it came after Stephen Crichton was ruled out for the visitors. Currently down in 13th, they likely must win all their remaining games if they are to play finals footy. They will be without Selwyn Cobbo after he made headlines for an off-field indiscretion with Corey Oates to replace him. The Titans made it four wins in their last five with a gritty comeback against the Dolphins and Des Hasler has named an unchanged side for a second Queensland derby in as many weeks.

Head To Head:
A decimated Titans side beat a full strength Broncos 36-34 in Round 12 earlier this year. Campbell, AJ Brimson and Foran were among the key players missing but it shouldn’t come as a complete shock as the Titans have now won 5 of the last 9 in this series. The Broncos have performed well as the betting elect in this series having won 9 of the last 11 as an away favourite but they will have to slow down Khan-Pereira as he has scored 4 tries in his last 3 against the Broncos. Their recent battles at Suncorp Stadium have been very high scoring but that is not the case in games played at this ground as there has been an average of 45.1 total match points across the last 10 played at Cbus Super Stadium.

Stats That Matter:
This is the first stretch of the season that the Titans are finally gaining some momentum. It has not been a common theme though as they have won only 2 of their last 8 following a win. The Under has held on in 75% of those games and if their recent defensive success is anything to go by, that trend could continue. They have held their last 5 opponents to an average of 18ppg and the so-called sizzling Broncos attack has managed a mediocre 19.5ppg across its last 10. The result in the previous week has historically had a bearing in the total for their forthcoming fixture. The Over has hit in 86% of games in the last year when coming off a win but only 33% following a loss. The Under is 4-0 in the Titans last 4 and they have covered the line in 67% of games as the betting underdog in the last year.

Prediction:
The Broncos were abysmal last week, and their performance reveals that you simply cannot flick a switch in the NRL and return to the team you were 12 months ago. They continue to throw the ball around but are not willing to replicate those efforts in defence. The Broncos have made more handling errors than any other team this season while the Titans have made the fewest! Hasler’s side leads the NRL in completions rate (82%) and we have constantly talked about their ability to slow the ruck in recent weeks. It allowed them to get back into the contest against the Dolphins and there will be more of it here as the referee leaves the whistle in the pocket for a derby game.

Best Bet: Under 53.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Titans +, Khan-Pereira Anytime Tryscorer, Piakura Anytime Tryscorer ($12.18)

The Dragons were on the wrong end of yet another heavy defeat against top 4 opposition and there will be no let-up this week when they travel to Melbourne. The Storm made it 7 in a row with an 18-point win over the Eels and are four points clear at the top of the NRL ladder. To make matters worse for the Dragons, Cameron Munster has been promoted to the starting side after making his return off the bench. Sloan resumes in the fullback role for the visitors who will be without the services of Murdoch-Masila, Toby Couchman (suspension) and Mat Feagai (concussion protocols).

Head To Head:
The Storm have compiled a 9-3 record in their last 12 against the Dragons and this will be the 6th consecutive year that they meet only once in the regular season. The Storm are seeking an 11th consecutive home win in this series and have successfully covered the line in 5 of the last 7 as a home favourite. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 clashes overall and has hit in 5 of the last 7 hosted by the Storm (3-0 in last three. The Storm have averaged 41.3ppg in their last three against the Dragons despite only one of those games being played at AAMI Park.

Stats That Matter:
It was almost a matter of time before the Dragons began to slide down the ladder. They have lost 8 of their last 12 away games and two of those four victories were against the Panthers and Broncos when they were missing their Origin players. The line for this game has ballooned to 18.5 following a terrible performance against the Panthers but it is worth mentioning that the Dragons have covered the line in 11 of their last 14 following a loss. The Over has hit in 79% of those games and after giving up 30ppg across their last five, it is difficult to see the Dragons containing the Storm. As expected, the Storm have won 10 of their last 11 as a home favourite but they have successfully covered the line in only 3 of those games (27%).

Prediction:
Shane Flanagan’s side have been exposed against the elite teams of the competition when they are remotely close to full strength. Nathan Cleary made them look like park footballers last week and the Dragons must now find a way to contain the quartet of Munster, Hughes, Papenhuyzen and Grant. Any notion of the Storm having an off day can be set aside as they have been the most clinical team in the NRL when it comes to application and consistency over the course of 80 minutes. A Storm winger has scored a hat-trick in 2 of the last 3 meetings and you can be assured that there will be no stopping the home side here.

Best Bet: Over 51.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Storm -, Warbrick 2+ Tries, Papenhuyzen Anytime Tryscorer ($8.30)

Despite losing for a 6th time in their last 8 games, the Sharks have managed to cling on to a top 4 spot. If their form does not improve in the run home, it will be another early finals exit for Craig Fitzgibbon and his side. They will have to bounce back without the duo of Mulitalo and Hazelton this week but there is some positive news with William Kennedy back on deck. The Rabbitohs late season revival hit a snag last week in a 20-point loss to the Raiders and that defeat was compounded by a season ending injury to Alex Johnston.

Head To Head:
They have split the last 20 meetings (10-10) but the Sharks have a chance to complete a rare season double in this series following a 34-22 win back in Round 6. Mulitalo and Wilton both scored doubles in that win with Wilton also crossing for a try in the corresponding fixture last season. The Sharks have won the last 3 as a home favourite in this matchup but will have failed to cover the line in their last three when hosting the Rabbitohs. Both teams have scored 20+ points in 4 of the last 8 clashes with an average of 43.9 total match points across their last 11 battles.

Stats That Matter:
The Sharks are 6-3 both straight up and at the line after a loss in the last year with the Under holding on in 67% of those games. In comparison, the Rabbitohs have won only 4 of their last 13 following a defeat and have been successful at the line in only 23% of those games. The Sharks have made home ground advantage count with wins in 8 of their last 12 home games accompanied by a 9-3 line record in those games. It has been a case of the opposite for the Bunnies on the road as they are 1-6 both straight up and at the line in their last 7 as a road underdog.

Prediction:
With the Bunnies starting back five being Gray, Myers, Milne, Kennar and Jacob Gagai, there can be no excuses for the Sharks here. They have an excellent record covering the start as a home favourite and any inroads that the Bunnies made defensively has disappeared in recent weeks as they have allowed 32ppg in their last three. They could have been excused for poor defensive displays had they come against the best teams in the competition, but the trio of the Tigers, Dolphins and Raiders are hardly that. One thing the Sharks have been good at in the last two seasons is beating weaker teams and doing so handily.

Best Bet: Sharks -11.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Sharks 41 points or more, Wilton Anytime Tryscorer, Katoa Anytime Tryscorer ($10.80)

If there were any doubts about who is the best player in the NRL, or which are favourites to win the competition, those questions were answered in the last fortnight. Nathan Cleary has returned as a man possessed! In two games back he has accumulated 3 tries, 6 try assists and 4 linebreak assists. The Panthers crushed the Dragons 46-10 last week and did so despite losing Daine Laurie early in the game. Isaiah Iongi will make his debut in the converted no.1 jersey with Lindsay Smith to get a starting role at prop over the next month after Fisher-Harris sustained a groin injury. The bye came at the right time for the Knights last week, but Adam O’Brien continues to look for answers with Hastings the latest casualty.

Head To Head:
The Panthers are undefeated in their last 9 against the Knights (8 wins, 1 draw) and have been dominant across the board. They have covered the line successfully in the last 6 meetings and have lost only twice in the last 16 meetings when installed as the betting elect. The Under has held on in 7 of the last 10 encounters hosted by the Panthers but that is largely due to their defence which has held the Knights to 20 or fewer points in 15 straight meetings. More specifically, the Knights have averaged only 9.7ppg in their last 7 games at this venue!

Stats That Matter:
With the Knights struggling to put points on the board in this series, the Under is 6-1 in the last 7 between them at BlueBet Stadium. This is also the time of the year that the Panthers knuckle down in preparation for the finals. Last season in a 6-game stretch from Rounds 20-25 they held their opponents to a mere 10.7ppg. That stretch included battles against the Storm and Sharks and there is the added incentive this year of chasing down the Storm for the minor premiership. The Knights have posted a solid 7-3 line record in their last 10 following a loss but their attack has been left wanting in the last month with an average of 12ppg in their last three.

Prediction:
With several changes across their backline, the Knights will need to put in a collective defensive display if they are to keep things close. Dylan Lucas has been very good for the Novocastrians this season but has been exposed in games where he has been shifted to the centres. With Sharpe also playing out of position on the wing, it will be a matter of time before the duo of Cleary and Luai pick them apart. The Panthers were devastating on the edges last week with several forwards (Smith and Sorensen) getting in on the scoring act. The duo of Gamble and Crossland do not have the creativity required to break down the Panthers defence and if the visitors think they will beat the Panthers at their own game (pinpoint kicking, kick chase and line speed), they will be punished.

Best Bet: Panthers -18 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Knights Under team total, Iongi Anytime Tryscorer, To’o Anytime Tryscorer, Sorensen Anytime Tryscorer ($21.11)

We wrap things up in Round 22 with two teams coming off very impressive wins last week. The Bulldogs stunned the Broncos 41-16 at Suncorp stadium in a stunning display of expansive footy while the Raiders were relentless defensively in a 32-12 win over the Rabbitohs. The news gets even better for the Bulldogs with Stephen Crichton and Ado-Carr back on deck while Ricky Stuart will run it back with the same 17 as last week.

Head To Head:
Last week we mentioned how the Raiders were a bogey side for the Rabbitohs, and it is much of the same for the Bulldogs. The Raiders have won 9 in a row against the Bulldogs and have also come away with the points in the last two clashes at the Bulldogs spiritual home – Belmore Sports Ground. The Bulldogs have won only 3 of the last 9 as a home favourite in this series and have conceded an alarming 90 points in their previous three against the Raiders leading into this one. The Raiders were 24-20 winners over the Bulldogs in ‘Magic Round’ earlier this year with Hudson Young crossing for a double.

Stats That Matter:
Both of these teams build their success on the back of the same ingredient – defence! The Under is 4-0 in the Raiders last 4 in a stretch where they have allowed only 12ppg. Defence is the Bulldogs middle name this season and they have shown a commitment to this aspect of their game in every second of every match. They have held teams to 16.6ppg this season with an average of only 38.1 total match points in their games played in 2024. It has been 9 games since they conceded more than 20 points, and the return of Crichton will add further steel to their defence. The Bulldogs have won their last 4 as a home favourite and have covered the line in all but one of those games.

Prediction:
The total for this one opened at 48.5 and you will not find a better bet this week than the Unders. Both teams play a similar style when at their best which is built on a solid kicking game and enthusiasm in defence. The Bulldogs have been able to get out of trouble with the boot of Burton, not to mention the excellent yardage provided by Kiraz and Tracey. Similarly, the Raiders rely heavily on the kicking game of Fogarty, and it has been sublime since he returned from injury. Don’t be deterred by some recent high scoring games between them as two of their last three clashes have been played in Magic Round – a very different setting to that of Belmore Sports Ground or a cold night in Canberra. The winning team could fail to reach 20.

Best Bet: Under 48.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Tri Bet 1-6 – Either Team To Win By Under 6.5, Under 40.5 points, Young Anytime Tryscorer ($20.70)