Back in the UFC Apex from Las Vegas, fight fans get treated to a 6-fight main card with as many prelims to start things off. A night littered with veterans and burgeoning contenders, UFC on ESPN 60 is shaping up to be a chaotic night with heavy upset potential.
Both women in this contest are 3-1 in their last four outings and with consistent presences in the top 15, it was only a matter of time before these two squared off.
Virna Jandiroba is established as the minor betting favorite here; justified as she has been surging through the last two years. Getting better with age, the 36-year-old Jandiroba appears to be hitting her peak and has developed into a forceful offensive threat. On top of her Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, Virna is a physically imposing fighter who has occasionally been coined a “zombie” for her aggression and defensive lapses notable in equal doses. A grappler at heart, Jandiroba does excellent work when she can establish top position but the all-important battle of getting it there has been a critically successful work-in-progress for her.
Defensive vulnerabilities aside, Jandiroba makes another step up in competition when she takes on longtime contender Amanda Lemos.
A fellow compatriot, Lemos is riding high after a clear win over Mackenzie Dern to kick the year off. Now in her late 30s, Lemos is preferring to stay active and has only stumbled recently a handful of times to elite opposition like Weili Zhang. Well-rounded and possessing some of the heavier hands in the division, Lemos is capable of keeping up everywhere this fight goes. However, she may measure up shy down the stretch of a tit-for-tat battle with Virna Jandiroba. It is likely Lemos will find success early in the bout with her quick hands and awkward but effective timing, but Jandiroba has an opportunity to pull things back down the stretch.
Jandiroba will need to walk through fire to get the win this weekend, but doggedly determined efforts are nothing new to her. This weekend poses a crucial match-up for both but it is the durable Jandiroba who has more opportunity to separate and pull away the longer this fight goes.
Known as the “Mean Machine” for good reason, Steve Garcia has maintained a remarkable 100% finish rate since making his UFC debut.
Though Garcia started his organizational stint 1-2, he didn’t let it dissuade him from future success. Now riding a 3-fight win streak that includes brutal finishes of Chase Hooper and Melquizael Costa. Victory is often hard-fought for Garcia, but he is a durable, dogged fighter more than willing to go out on his shield.
That explosive striking ability and willingness to throw down will be welcomed by Seung Woo Choi. Though only 1-3 dating back to 2021, Choi has shown flashes of offensive excellence and will happily meet Steve Garcia in the center of the cage. Recent outings have suggested Choi is attempting to temper his aggressive tendencies, but the chaos Garcia breeds will surely bring out the vintage temperaments of Choi. These two are likely to pair for a volatile striking contest and it is Garcia who has shown great familiarity and comfort in those situations.
Arguably the more durable fighter and unquestionably the harder hitting one, Garcia may find a comparable technical match-up but holds clear physical advantages, particularly at featherweight.
After making his UFC debut on short-notice and coming up short against Elves Brener, the circumstances are a bit more typical this time around for Kaynan Kruschewsky.
With a full camp of preparation, Kruschewsky finds himself the betting favorite this weekend against Kurt Holobaugh in a critical fight for both. Despite a relative unknown to the organization, Kruschewsky has already minted a style and reliable set of tools on regional circuits in his native Brazil. Finishing is at the front of Kruschewsky’s mind and he tends to engage rather fearlessly in make-or-break exchanges. Though he has been flattened in losses before, Kruschewsky still maintains a heavy offensive pace that puts him at nearly as much danger as he puts his foes in. The Brazilian is a grappling-based fighter but he is unafraid of launching crude but powerful strikes on the feet.
Kruschewsky is here for a good time, not a long time and that matches well with veteran finisher Kurt Holobaugh.
With a staggering 85% finish rate, Holobaugh has built a career on fast-paced, exciting fights. Though a grappler at core, Holobaugh is also capable of mixing it up anywhere and will likely find success exploiting the leaky defense of Kaynan Kruschewsky. Both of these men enjoy chaotic affairs but Holobaugh is vastly more experienced and quite frankly appears to have significant technical advantages almost everywhere.
For all the force and aggression Kruschewsky generates, he is a crude fighter in comparison to Holobaugh. Faced with a faster, smoother fighter on the feet, Kruschewsky will need to secure takedowns if he hopes to edge out a win over Holobaugh. Given the inconsistency of Holobaugh’s counter-wrestling, it is a monumental concern for the American. That said, Holobaugh should be able to exploit advantages on the feet and potentially land in top position at some points in this bout. His takedown defense will be tested but this is exactly the kind of fight a longtime veteran like Holobaugh needs to win if he wants to maintain a place in the UFC.
5-3-1 in the UFC, Cody Durden has had a tumultuous trip through the UFC but ultimately has found a bit of footing in recent years. Durden tapped in the second round against Tagir Ulanbekov but solid conditioning and a well-rounded game have led him to a 4-1 record over the last two years.
A plucky fighter who isn’t quick to give up, Durden is an offensive spark plug but has suffered defensive flaws since his entry into the organization. Those shortcomings have yet to be meaningfully corrected, but he has continued to improve on the offensive front. Durden has developed into versatile threat who outputs decent volume on the feet and shoots multiple times per round.
No stranger to dynamic finishes, Bruno Silva is hoping to finally get some consistency going as a fighter after injuries and layoffs have kept him on the bench. With only three fights to his name in as many years, Silva walked away victorious every time but nonetheless desired for more activity.
Now stepping into the cage after a 16-month layoff, Silva is a relatively forgotten name in the division but is capable of great things. A win-less start in the organization took some wind out of Silva’s sails but by 2021, he was back to winning ways and hasn’t stumbled since. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu yet capable of ending the fight on the feet, Silva has shown the ability to end fights anywhere but is likely to lean on his grappling this weekend.
Silva does excellent work on the mat and Durden has shown a clear discomfort when working from bottom position. The odds are razor close in this one for good reason but Silva seems on the cusp of a breakout, needing just the right moment and consistent health to generate it. Look for Silva to kick start that plan by capping off a savvy bout with a finish.
2-2 in his last four, Bill Algeo is desperate to rebound after a horrid start to the year saw him TKO’d in one round. The loss was the first KO/TKO of his career and a surprise to everyone that saw Algeo build a career as a relentless fighter tougher than old leather.
Matchmaking is quick to test him again, as he will need every cylinder firing when he takes on “Korean Superboy” Doo Ho Choi.
A fellow veteran who has been in the UFC for six years longer than Algeo, lapses in activity and a three-fight losing streak kept Choi from generating much momentum. He returned earlier this year in a solid effort against Kyle Nelson but the fight was ultimately declared a draw and question marks remain about Choi’s longevity in the division. Unbelievably, Choi has not won a fight since 2016. He is likely to be the technically superior fighter, but as is often the case when battling Bill Algeo, it is a question if Choi can maintain his success down the stretch.
The second half of a fight is where Algeo shines but his durability has suddenly become a concern. With no major layoff to deal with, this is Choi’s opportunity to find his footing and get a win. To do so, he will need to stay sharp on the feet and avoid the eventual takedown attempts of Algeo in the second half of the bout. This one is likely to be a grueling affair and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Choi struggling in the final round, but I believe there is value in backing the “Korean Superboy”.
Bigger moments should go the way of Choi and he should find advantages if he can stay on his feet. Look for Choi to capitalize on a short layoff and finally kick start the momentum he’s been seeking for years.
Jandiroba v Lemos: Virna Jandiroba By Points @ $3.25
Garcia v Choi: Steve Garcia By KO/TKO @ $2.25
Kruschewsky v Holobaugh: Kurt Holobaugh Head to Head @ $2.10
Silva v Durden: Bruno Silva By Submission @ $5.50
Choi v Algeo: Doo Ho Choi Head to Head @ $2.45
Lee v Amil: Jeong Yeong Lee By Points @ $3.50
Gibson v Kelleher: Brian Kelleher Head to Head @ $2.65
Maverick v Barbosa: Miranda Maverick By Points @ $2.00
Radzhabov v Ogden: Trey Ogden Head to Head @ $1.94
Carolina v Pudilova: Luana Carolina Head to Head @ $1.87
Usman v Petersen: Mohammed Usman By Points @ $3.00