The UFC hits the road again and treats fight fans to another night of action from the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. Headlined by former strawweight champion Rose Namajunas taking on late-notice replacement Tracy Cortez, UFC on ESPN 59 is poised to be a grueling high-altitude test for competitors.
1-1 in her campaign at flyweight, Rose Namajunas started things off poorly with a loss to Manon Fiorot but picked up a decision victory over Amanda Ribas earlier this year. A prolific veteran, Namajunas has accumulated remarkable experiences at only 32 and remains one of the most skilled and tricky fighters in the division.
While there are justified questions about the consistency of Namajunas, her victory over Ribas was a much-needed step in the right direction. “Thug” Rose is a versatile offensive threat as apt to end a fight with a quick high kick as she is to narrowly outpoint a foe over the distance. Sometimes accused of fighting to the level of her opposition, Namajunas has put on both brilliant and baffling performances while consistently looking capable of doing more.
This weekend sees Namajunas favored in a showdown with late-notice pairing Tracy Cortez. The stylistic match-up favors her without question, but Namajunas’ struggles to separate and run away with a fight put her chances into jeopardy. 11-1 as a professional and on an 11-fight win streak, Cortez has quietly compiled wins over solid opposition en route to a 5-0 record and top 15 ranking in the organization.
Deceptively well-rounded since making strides in her striking, Cortez is a grappler at heart but a scrapper through and through. Whether she needs to grind out a win on the feet or on the mat, Cortez is more than willing to put it on the line to score points and give herself the best chance of a win. Her striking has unquestionably improved in recent years, demonstrated well in a boxing-focused effort over Jasudavicius, but the bigger issue for her lies in reliable paths to victory here. Cortez is often able to exploit marginal advantages but will find it difficult to establish successful wrestling and may have to take her dues in a striking contest.
Though Cortez may be able to keep up with the speed of Namajunas, there should nonetheless be a gap in footwork and offensive variety. A five round, high altitude showdown with a former champion is a monumental ask for anyone, and Cortez simply hasn’t yet exhibited the tools necessary to get a win this weekend.
Established as the clear betting favorite, it is arguable Santiago Ponzinibbio has the most to lose this weekend in a pivotal showdown against Muslim Salikhov.
1-3 in his last four with a KO loss to stamp his last showing, Ponzinibbio has his back against the wall as he rides out the final stages of his career. At 37-years-old and eight weeks shy of a decade in the Octagon, Ponzinibbio has nothing left to prove but still enjoys putting it on the line out there. That risk-tolerance served him well in snatching his most recent win and he will find a willing opponent to stand in front of him this weekend.
Known best as the “King of Kung Fu”, Salikhov just turned 40-years-old and is doing his best to maintain relevancy in a fast moving sport. A slick and deceptively agile striker even in his current state, Salikhov has been a surprisingly durable and plucky threat. Salikhov does his best work on the feet with lengthy kicks and measured strikes, also owning an uncanny ability to drag his opponents into reckless exchanges he can exploit.
A true veteran of combat sports, Salikhov’s best days may be in the rear-view mirror but he matches up fairly well against Ponzinibbio. In what is likely to be a grueling striking affair to the final bell, Salikhov can tip the scales of a close and exhausting bout with a busier work rate.
With razor close betting odds flipping back and forth, it is clear Jean Silva is receiving troves of respect even as a late-notice fill-in.
Making his UFC debut earlier this year, the Brazilian has already racked up two wins and as many finishes. Silva was in action only two weeks ago, missing weight for the featherweight bout but making his best attempt to retain fans by taking out Charles Jourdain with a brutal KO. Almost immediately after, Silva found himself accepting a bout against Drew Dober at lightweight after original opponent Mike Davis tore his bicep.
Ultimately, fans are left with a great fight that is likely to be a blistering affair. As his reputation suggests, Silva is all about the finish and isn’t shy about coming forward and throwing hands.
That stands to clash well with Drew Dober – an American veteran with a propensity for violence. Both men have showcased some offensive wrestling/grappling skills in the past but make no mistake, this is likely to be contested on the feet. Even at the age of 35, Dober continues to be a dangerous and persistent threat on the feet. Durable and possessing heavy hands of his own, Dober has stood toe-to-toe with a multitude of dangerous strikers and fared shockingly well for a man once regarded best for his wrestling skills.
Though the 155lb weight limit will help Jean Silva avoid a drastic and hasty weight cut, he is unlikely to be the one to pull away down the stretch. High altitude continues to be a relevant talking point as Silva looks to capitalize on his momentum with an early win. Meanwhile, if Dober can survive the first half of the bout, he should have an advantage the longer the fight goes.
A clash of offensive juggernauts always comes prepackaged with volatility but Dober has been here and done that. If his chiseled jaw can hold up to an early onslaught, his experience and deep gas tank can kick in and wrest the fight away from the surging Brazilian.
One of the biggest favorites on the entire card, Gabriel Bonfim is expected to rebound well after a stoppage loss to Nicolas Dalby late last year.
Bonfim had some early success but struggled in the face of Dalby’s relentless pressure, eventually breaking down and losing his unbeaten record. Despite the setback, Bonfim has proven himself relevant and a fast-starting offensive threat. That fast start may prove risky at high altitude but there is little doubt he will continue to seek a finish at the earliest opportunity. Gabriel shares some of the long kicking ability of his brother Ismael, but unlike his brother prefers to finish things on the mat. Bonfim is a solid wrestler with an eye towards latching onto a submission in every scramble and that skill set will come in handy against a quick foe in Ange Loosa.
Looking to rebound after fighting Bryan Battle to a disappointing No Contest, Loosa shows a record that suggest a devastating striking dynamo. What fans have actually received in recent outings is a more diverse and cerebral fighter unafraid to look for takedowns; in fact, offensive wrestling has led to much of Loosa’s success since debuting in the UFC in 2022.
Loosa’s punching power is not monumental but he does maintain a solid output on the feet and is happy to use his striking to set up takedown attempts. That said, grappling likely to be a treacherous path against submission ace Bonfim, especially given his particularly tight guillotine. Potentially forced to win this on the feet, Loosa may be able to threaten with pressure and volume much but will need to put in his best efforts to get back to his feet. Even in defeat, Bonfim found wrestling success against Dalby and will likely find it this weekend. C
ursed with the onus of outputting heavy volume on the feet and getting back up from the inevitable takedowns of Bonfim, the task seems too tall for Loosa this time around. The win may not come easily for Bonfim, but look for him to snatch up a submission and get back on track in rousing fashion.
Since starting off his UFC stint with a decision loss, Christian Rodriguez has been on a tear and steadily making a name for himself as a persistent spoiler. A victory over Raul Rosas Jr. kickstarted the hopes of the “prospect killer” and a recent win over Isaac Dulgarian helped prove the point.
Despite only being 26-years-old, Rodriguez fights like a veteran and has handed the first professional loss to his last three opponents. Versatile and well-conditioned, Rodriguez finds success taking advantageous of over-zealousness and shallow gas tanks. He excels at being a jack-of-all-trades but Rodriguez isn’t likely to find those same advantages quite as easily at UFC on ESPN 59.
While Rodriguez does his best impression of a savvy veteran, there is no denying that status for Julian Erosa. Often referred to as “Juicy J”, a staggering resume and depth of experience dot the career of the 34-year-old. After 11 months away, Erosa got back into the cage earlier this year and broke a two-fight skid with an important win over Ricardo Ramos. Now 2-2 in his last four, Erosa has opportunity to show Christian Rodriguez what it is to be an elite jack-of-all-trades. Historically a grinder with a deep gas tank of his own, Erosa will not be quick to wear out and give Rodriguez a clear shot to the win. The things Rodriguez does best are arguably things Erosa has demonstrated the ability to do better.
This stands as a remarkably challenging task for the young Rodriguez, and one I am doubtful he can pass. Rodriguez lacks the explosive finishing ability that typically threatens Erosa and beating “Juicy J” in a high-paced fight at altitude isn’t a bet I like to make.
2-2 in his last four, Abdul Razak Alhassan staggered in his last outing against Joe Pyfer but is favored to get back on track this weekend. 38-years-old and entering off of a loss, it is easy to expect the worst but Alhassan is a truly powerful threat on the feet. Despite being known as “Judo Thunder”, he does his best work when throwing hands and owns enough power to devastate much of the division. In fact, Alhassan has never won a fight he couldn’t win by KO/TKO – clear evidence of his all-or-nothing style. To snatch a win on the main card opener of UFC on ESPN 59, he will need to put his best wrestling stance forward against the volatile Cody Brundage.
With only nine UFC bouts to his name, Brundage has done well to develop and persevere in the face of difficult matchmaking. Brundage has managed to scrape together a 4-5 record in the organization with the majority of those bouts ending early, but once again sees a challenging stylistic match-up ahead of him this weekend.
Prone to falling apart down the stretch if his early blitzes don’t pay off, Brundage has a limited window to get his work done and it likely has to be done on the mat. A pure striking contest favors Alhassan, not to mention the power disparity between these two. All told, Brundage is drawing a stout, powerful striker with competence in tie-ups. Without a clear route to victory, Brundage may be stuck on the feet swinging for the fences and hoping for the best.
Namajunas v Cortez: Rose Namajunas Head to Head @ $1.42
Ponzinibbio v Salikhov: Muslim Salikhov Head to Head @ $2.50
Dober v Silva: Drew Dober Head to Head @ $1.94
Bonfim v Loosa: Gabriel Bonfim By Submission @ $2.20
Rodriguez v Erosa: Julian Erosa By Points @ $4.20
Alhassan v Brundage: Abdul Razak Alhassan By KO/TKO @ $1.95
Johnson v Van: Joshua Van By Points @ $1.95
Kline v Jasudavicius: Fatima Kline Head to Head @ $2.00
Jackson v Blackshear: Da’Mon Blackshear Head to Head @ $2.20
Santos v Agapova: Luana Santos By Points @ $3.00
Fremd v Petroski: Josh Fremd By Points @ $5.00
Elder v Flowers: Evan Elder By Points