Paris Day 5 | Best Bets

Wednesday, 7:00pm
Poland began their tournament with a comprehensive 3-0 victory over Egypt. Heavily favoured going into the match, the Polish team lived up to their billing, sweeping their opponents for the ideal start to their Paris campaign, including winning the final set 25-13. That continued their strong form from the leadup to the tournament, having now won six of their last seven games, and they will like their chances of improving that record on Wednesday night.

Once a heavyweight of the men’s volleyball world, Brazil have slipped down the rankings in recent years but will want to add to their six golds in this event from years gone by. They have an uphill battle if they are to achieve that, however, after losing their first game in Paris. The Brazilians were somewhat unfortunate to fall to Italy in their opener, with two-point margins in each of the first two sets as they fell behind 0-2. Brazil clawed their way back with a 25-18 win in the third, but the Italians proved to be too strong in the fourth, winning 25-21 to seal the victory. That’s not a good sign as they now brace themselves to take on the world’s #1 team, and this will be a bridge too far for the South Americans.

Wednesday, 11:30pm
China have work to do to qualify for the quarterfinals after dropping their first game in Paris. Taking on a fast-paced Spain team, the Chinese all but had the game in the bag, as Meng Li sunk one of two free throws to give them a 76-73 lead. Leonor Rodriguez came down the other end and hit a three and-one, but couldn’t sink the freebie, leading to overtime, which the Spaniards prevailed in 90-89. The 6’7” Yueru Li dominated for China, scoring 31 points and 15 rebounds, while Li’s 13 points and 11 assists were crucial, but the world #2 fell short.

Serbia got their tournament off to a winning start, toppling Puerto Rico 58-55 in a thriller. Leading by seven points with less than 2:30 to play, Serbia were far from convincing down the stretch, committing turnovers and missing shots and free throws, but they did enough to hold on, earning their first win in Paris. Despite the victory, it was far from a convincing performance from the Serbians and they will be going up against a desperate Chinese team that will be too good. We saw plenty of glimpses of their class — and their size — against Spain, and this shallow Serbian team won’t have enough answers.

Thursday, 1:35am
Canada had a less-than-ideal start to their time in Paris, losing their opener 7-12 to Hungary. Taking on the world #4 was always going to be a tough task as their opening game, but it’s fair to say that the Canadians did themselves proud. Trailing 1-4 at the end of the opening period, the North Americans almost went neck-and-neck with the heavily fancied Hungarians for the remainder of the game, as Kindred Paul, Hayley McKelvey and Emma Wright each scored two goals.

China have one more game than Canada under their belt at Paris, taking an 0-2 record into Thursday morning’s match. Going into their opening game against Australia as massive underdogs, the Chinese performed valiantly in a 5-7 defeat. Next up was a showdown against the world #2 Netherlands, which again resulted in defeat for China, this time falling 11-15. The 0-2 start will make it hard for them to progress from their group from here, but some strong form has been building for China against elite opposition and that puts them in a good spot against a middling Canadian outfit.

Thursday, 7:00am
New Zealand will require a minor miracle to progress from group play in Paris, having suffered a pair of defeats in their opening two games. The six-point deduction handed to Canada on the back of their drone spying scandal has hurt the Football Ferns’ chances of progressing as a third-place team, meaning a big win over France — as well as other results going their way — will be their only avenue to the knockout stages. Coming off a 0-2 defeat against Colombia on Monday, the New Zealanders had few clear-cut chances and some excellent saves from Anna Leat prevented the scoreline from blowing out.

France, on the other hand, have tasted both victory and defeat so far, winning their opener against Colombia 3-2 before falling to Canada 1-2. The tournament hosts were red hot in their opening half against the South Americans, finding the back of the net on three occasions to take a three-goal lead into the sheds, but they have cooled off since then, allowing two Colombian goals in the second half of that game, before losing 1-2 to the Canadians. That shows that their defence may be on the shaky side, and with the Kiwis needing to win big to have any chance of progressing, I expect to see aggression from both teams and goals on both sides of the score sheet.

Thursday, 7:00am
The USA got their gold medal defence off to the ideal start, beating Serbia 110-84 on Monday. Kevin Durant was on fire throughout the game, hitting eight of nine shot attempts to score an incredibly efficient 23 points, while LeBron James flirted with a triple-double, posting 21 points, seven rebounds and nine assists. Equally impressive was the Americans’ effort on the defensive end, keeping Nikola Jokić relatively quiet (20/5/8) and keeping a lid on his supporting cast, including Bogdan Bogdanović.

South Sudan also tasted victory in their opening game, beating Puerto Rico 90-79. It was an historic result for the Bright Stars, winning their first-ever game in this tournament, and Carlik Jones was again their driving force. With 19 points, seven rebounds and six assists, the point guard led the offence, while Sydney Kings recruit Bul Kuol hit his shots on his way to an efficient 12 points. This is a lengthy and determined South Sudan team and while they clearly are at a talent deficit against the USA, they play with incredible vigour and will ensure the margin doesn’t exceed 30 points on Thursday morning. When these two teams met in a warm-up clash, USA were fortunate to walk away with a 101-100 win and while scores won’t be that close in this clash, it shows that South Sudan are capable of holding their own.

Thursday
As a two-time French Open finalist, Ruud is supposed to be right at home on the courts of Roland Garros. It hasn’t necessarily been the case trough the first two rounds and the current conditions in Paris are a likely factor. Across the two weeks of the French Open we barely witnessed any days above 20 degrees. Two months on and in the middle of summer, we are seeing temperatures well above 30 and it has changed the court conditions. The ball is not sitting up as much and players are finding it easier to hit through their opponents. That will work in Cerundolo’s favour here as he is the heavier hitter from the back of the court. The Argentine has a 3-2 advantage in this series which includes wins in 3 of the last 4 and 2 of their 3 prior battles on clay. He has won 6 of the last 9 sets they have contested and it great value to both win a set, and post an upset win.

Best of the Rest
Men’s Singles: Musetti WIN ($1.83)
Men’s Doubles: Ebden/Peers WIN ($1.85)
Women’s Singles: Qinwen Zheng -4.5 ($1.91)
Women’s Doubles: Andreeva/Shnaider WIN ($3.00)

Women’s Triathlon

6:00pm Wednesday: Final
Ainsley Thorpe & Nicole van der Kaay

Men’s Rowing

8:34pm Wednesday: Coxless Pair Semifinal
Phillip WIlson & Daniel Williamson

Men’s Triathlon

8:45pm Wednesday: Final
Dylan McCullough & Hayden Wilde

Men’s Swimming

9:00pm Wednesday: 200m Backstroke Heat
Kane Follows

7:34am Thursday: 200m Backstroke Semifinal
Kane Follows*

8:15am Thursday: 100m Freestyle Final*
Cameron Gray

Women’s Rowing

9:34pm Wednesday: Lightweight Double Scull Semifinal
Jackie Kiddle & Shannon Cox

Women’s Sailing

10:15pm Wednesday: 49er FX Races 10-12
Molly Meech & Jo Aleh

2:48am Thursday: 2:48a,mFoil Races 8-12
Veerle ten Have

Men’s Sailing

12:03am Thursday: Foil Races 7-11
Josh Armit

12:50am Thursday: 49er Races 10-12
Isaac McHardie & William McKenzie

Equestrian

12:52am Thursday: Dressage — Individual — Grand Prix
Melissa Galloway

Women’s Football

7:00am Thursday: Match 3 v France
New Zealand