The Warriors are reeling once again, sinking to their fourth loss in five games to stand on the precipice of finals oblivion.
The 20-18 defeat in Canberra – to a Raiders team that was on an 0-4 run – will forever be remembered for Chanel Harris-Tavita’s mind-blowing miss of a simple conversion that would have locked up the scores with eight minutes to go. But unravelling to a 14-0 deficit after 18 minutes meant the injury-hit Warriors would always be running uphill.
The Warriors had the better of most statistical categories: possession (51%), completion rate (84% to 80%), run metres (1,818 to 1,696) and line-breaks (5 to 3), though they were well behind in effective tackle (88.8% to 92.07%) and missed tackles (35 to 20).
The most glaring stat, though, was that the Warriors scored four tries to three, yet finished on the wrong side of the scoreboard.
It’s a fate that’s befallen the Warriors just 10 times previously in their 30-season history – although five of those instances have now occurred in the club’s last eight seasons.
Round 22, 1999 – v Parramatta, 11-10 (two tries to one)
Round 2, 2000 – v Wests Tigers, 17-16 (four tries to three)
Round 15, 2004 – v North Queensland, 28-26 (six tries to four)
Round 10, 2007 – v Wests Tigers, 30-26 (five tries to four)
Round 19, 2012 – v Brisbane, 10-8 (two tries to one)
Round 6, 2014 – v Canterbury, 21-20 (five tries to four)
Round 25, 2017 – v Manly, 22-21 (four tries to three)
Round 23, 2018 – v Canterbury, 27-26 (five tries to four)
Round 23, 2021 – v Brisbane, 24-22 (five tries to four)
Round 25, 2022 – v Gold Coast, 27-26 (five tries to four)
Round 20, 2024 – v Canberra, 20-18 (four tries to three)
Moving the goalposts
The cruel irony of Chanel Harris-Tavita’s crucial late miss from next to the posts was not that he was potentially the third-string goalkicker (behind injured pair Adam Pompey and Taine Tuaupiki), but that he was, until last week, part of an elite group of sharpshooters in the game’s history.
Leading into Friday’s game, CHT was one of just 20 players with a career goalkicking strike-rate of 80 percent or better (minimum 50 attempts) since records began being kept in 1986.
Batting at almost 82 percent in the NRL prior to his now-infamous zero-from-three outing at GIO Stadium, there was a strong argument that Harris-Tavita should have been kicking from the outset – Pompey has a career strike-rate of just over 72 percent.
BEST WARRIORS GOALKICKERS BY PERCENTAGE 1995-2024 (minimum 50 attempts)
87.05% – Michael Witt (121/139)
83.06% – Matthew Ridge (103/124)
81.59% – Ivan Cleary (195/239)
80.23% – Issac Luke (69/86)
78.26% – Chanel Harris-Tavita (54/69)
76.37% – Shaun Johnson (433/567)
75.82% – Reece Walsh (69/91)
75.51% – James Maloney (222/294)
75% – Kodi Nikorima (60/80)
74.15% – Tony Martin (109/147)
72.13% – Adam Pompey (44/61)
Miracle territory
The bad news is the Warriors have never had less than eight wins and a draw on the board after 18 games and gone on to make the finals.
Andrew Webster’s 7-1-10 charges face the prospect of having to win all six of their remaining games to squeak into the playoffs.
The club’s best efforts over the last six weeks of a season are: 5-1 in 1999 and 2023; 4-1-1 in 2001; and 4-2 in 1997, 2002, 2003, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2018.
Tigers by the tail
The Warriors have a healthy recent record against this Friday’s opponent, Wests Tigers, winning the clubs’ last six encounters in a row.
It may not be the plainest sailing to continue that streak, though – the average margin in those matches was just over seven points. Last season’s 30-22 win to break their duck in Hamilton was much nervier than anticipated, with the Warriors top-four bound and the Tigers spiralling towards a second straight wooden spoon.
The Tigers’ last win in New Zealand was back in 2016. The joint venture has a reasonable 6-8 record at Mt Smart since coming into the NRL in 2000, however.
Benji Marshall’s Tigers have conceded 40-plus points in each of their last four games. The Kiwis legend had a 1-6 record against the Warriors at Mt Smart during his playing career, though he did kick a match-winning field goal in the Tigers’ 11-10 upset of Melbourne Storm during a 2018 double-header at the venue.
Number crunchers
No shortage of statistical standouts in Canberra despite the L.
- Playing all but eight minutes at fullback after starting on the wing, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck racked up a game-high 256 metres and a team-high five tackle-breaks, on top of scoring a try.
- Addin Fonua-Blake was immense, making 198 metres and 36 tackles, plus powering over for his seventh try of the season.
- Backing up from a gruelling Origin debut, skipper Mitch Barnett played all but seven minutes, carted the ball up 17 times for 159 metres and made 41 tackles – and scored a vital try.
- A huge 80-minute shift from Dylan Walker, who made 154 metres, 41 tackles, a line-break and a try assist, along with 23 passes.
- After playing almost an entire Origin match 48 hours earlier, Kurt Capewell didn’t miss a minute and was retrenched to centre early on, making 14 runs for 138 metres as well as scoring his first try for the Warriors.