NRL Tips & Preview | Round 20

With an additional week break courtesy of the bye and just the two Origin players between the two sides (Barnett and Capewell), both teams have had a mountain of time to prepare for this one. The Warriors needed the rest following a heroic effort in a golden point loss to the Bulldogs in a match where they lost several players. Nicoll-Klokstad and Montoya are both unavailable, adding to the bad news of Tohu Harris being ruled out for the season. Tuaupiki fills the spot at fullback with RTS shifting to the wing. The Raiders get a huge boost with Jamal Fogarty, Young and Hosking all expected to play.

Head To Head:
The Warriors achieved the season double over the Raiders last season for the first time since 2018 and have a chance of replicating that following an 18-10 win over the Green Machine in Round 3 earlier this year. The Warriors have won three in a row in this series and 9 of the last 12 as the betting favourite but have managed to win only 5 of the last 16 when installed as the underdog. That said, they have a tremendous record at the line as the road team in this matchup. They have covered the line in 10 of their last 11 away to the Raiders, including each of the last 6. The Over has hit in only 3 of the last 11 battles hosted by the Raiders with only 1 of the last 6 battles overall producing more than 44 total match points.

Stats That Matter:
The Raiders have a solid 5-2 record as a home favourite in the last year but have had limited success covering the line. They have posted a 4-8 line record in home games over the last 12 months and have not covered at GIO Stadium since a dominant 41-8 win over the Eels in Round 5! The Raiders have averaged only 14.5ppg in their last 4 (all losses) and have not scored 30+ points since the fixture already mentioned against the Eels in Round 5. The Warriors have won 2 of their last 3 following a loss but have struggled on the road for an extended period. They have won only 1 of their last 7 as an away underdog and have been successful at the line in only 38% of away games in the last year. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has scored in 2 of his last 3 against the Raiders and heads into this contest having scored a try in 4 of his last 5 games.

Prediction:
A big part of the Raiders early season success (4-2 record after 6 rounds) was the kicking game of Jamal Fogarty. Ricky Stuart built his game plan around it with Fogarty kicking deep into the corners and forcing teams to work off their own line. The Warriors have been renowned for doing this under Andrew Webster and continue to lead the NRL in possession on the back of an 81% completion rate. The return of Young and Hosking for the hosts will tighten up their edges even further which will result in a low scoring contest. On what will be a cold and windy night in Canberra, the Unders is a fantastic bet!

Best Bet: Under 47.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Total Match Points 31-40, Watene-Zelezniak Anytime Tryscorer ($7.68)

The Rabbitohs late season revival hit a snag last week in a 36-28 loss to the Dolphins and have been dealt further blows with Arrow out injured and Murray suspended for his participation in a melee in the Origin decider. The Tigers have several headaches of their own starting with conceding 40+ points in each of their last three games – all losses. Skipper Api Koroisau is unlikely to play despite being listed on the extended bench with youngster Alex Lobb also unavailable. Alex Twal returns from a head knock with Da Silva expected to wear the no.9 jersey.

Head To Head:
With wins in 9 of the last 11 encounters, the Rabbitohs have been dominant in this series. They have won the last 6 as the home team and have posted an 8-3 line record in their last 11 as a home favourite against the Tigers. The Rabbitohs have won the last 3 meetings by an average margin of 20ppg and it is no surprise to see that Alex Johnston has carved up. He has scored 9 tries in his last 5 against the Tigers including hat-tricks in 2 of his last 3. The Over has hit in 7 of the last 11 hosted by the Rabbitohs with their most recent meeting at a neutral venue producing 50 total match points.

Stats That Matter:
The Tigers have lost 16 of their last 17 away games and head into this contest having lost both halves in each of their last 3 games. They have allowed 138 points across those three games (46ppg) and have completely fallen apart defensively. With the Bunnies’ attack averaging 30.67ppg in their last 6 games, there are danger signs for the visitors. The Under has held on in 11 of the Tigers last 16 games but there has notably been an average of 60 total match points across their last 7 games. The Rabbitohs are 4-0 at the line in their last 4 while the Tigers have failed at the line in their last 7 away games and 10 of their previous 12 as the road team.

Prediction:
The Tigers are running out of bodies and the absence of Koroisau will further impact them around the ruck where they have had serious problems containing teams. We cannot ignore the fact that they have conceded 40+ points in each of their last three and should not expect any improvement in that department when you consider their horrendous road record. Cody Walker is an expert at exposing defensive weaknesses out wide and there will be plenty of them in this game. Alex Johnston has an incredible try scoring record in this series and will likely cross for 2+ tries in a big win for the Rabbitohs.

Best Bet: Rabbitohs -10 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Alex Johnston 2+ Tries, Rabbitohs 19+, 61 Points or More ($10.90)

A 6th consecutive loss has seen the Broncos slide down to 13th spot on the ladder and it is quickly becoming a case of do or die for the runners-up from last year. The Origin period has been a disaster for them, and initial reports suggested that Reece Walsh would not be backing up while Carrigan was seen in a moon boot. Their position on the ladder has placed Kevin Walters under pressure with Walsh, Haas, Carrigan and Reynolds all taking part in the captain’s run on Friday. The Knights Origin trio of Ponga, Best and Gagai have all been given the green light following the decider on Wednesday night.

Head To Head:
A 4-0 record in their last 4 against the Knights suggests that the Broncos have been dominant in this series. That is not entirely the case as three of those games were played at Suncorp and the preceding four clashes were all won by the Knights. In fact, the home team has won 7 of the last 8 games in this matchup. The last four meetings hosted by the Knights have produced an average of only 36 total match points but there is one man the Knights will need to keep a close eye on – Cobbo. Despite having limited opportunities in Origin III, Cobbo has scored 8 tries in his last 4 against the Knights so we could see him end his four-game scoring drought for the Broncos.

Stats That Matter:
In the last 12-18 months, the Knights are a completely different threat at home than they are on the road. They are 9-4 both straight up and at the line in their last 13 home games and have successfully covered the line in each of their last 4 as a home underdog (3-1 outright). Moreover, this is a great time to back them as they have posted a 7-1 line record in their last 8 when coming off a loss. In contrast, the Broncos are 0-7 at the line in their last 7 leading into this (0-3 in road games) and could struggle to put points on the board with the Under holding on in 4 of their last 5 night matches. The Broncos defence has struggled severely out wide in the last two months leaking a large number of tries to wingers. Tuipulotu scored a hat-trick for the Dragons last week with To’o, Watene-Zelezniak and Alex Johnston all scoring against them in recent games.

Prediction:
Electing to play two backrowers (Lucas and Cant) in the centres last week was a poor decision from Knights coach Adam O’Brien and there will be no repeat of that even if Gagai or Best are a late withdrawal. Ponga only played 29 minutes on Wednesday night so he will be fresh and ready to go. As we have seen in the past, he is the key to the Knights attack as he unlocks the centre pairing of Gagai and Best. With the three of them on the field, the home team will have enough firepower to match a struggling Broncos outfit. Getting more than a try start at home, we will be taking the Knights at the line.

Best Bet: Knights +4.5 ($1.90)
Value: To Have 3+ Tries Combined (Duos) – Marzhew/Mapapalangi ($6.00)

A run of five consecutive wins coupled with the bye have the Storm 4 points clear at the top of the NRL ladder but that could change this weekend when they host a Roosters side on a four-game win streak of their own. Harry Grant has been named to back up from Origin and the absence of Bronson Garlick’s name on the extended bench suggests Grant will play. The home team gets an additional boost with goal kicker Nick Meaney returning but the Roosters get a mountain of ins themselves. Waerea-Hargreaves is suspended but will not be missed with Terell May inserted into the starting side. Suaalii and Radley return, and coach Trent Robinson has named all his Origin players (Crichton, Leniu, Watson and Collins). Wally Lewis Medal winner Angus Crichton would be the most likely to be rested but he has backed up every game and there seems to be a real intent from the Roosters to test themselves against the competition frontrunners.

Head To Head:
Surprisingly, the Storm have an excellent record against the Roosters in recent years having won 9 of the last 10 clashes including each of the last four! That hasn’t stopped the bookies installing the Roosters as the betting elect and it could be a crucial factor. The Roosters have won only 2 of the last 10 as an away underdog in this series but are an even 2-2 in the last 4 as the betting favourites on Melbourne’s turf. The two teams have consistently been involved in tight defensive battles with the Under holding on in each of the last four encounters hosted by the Storm. There has been an average of only 34.75 total match points across their last 12 meetings which makes this total seem enormous.

Stats That Matter:
The Roosters and Storm are two of the best defensive teams in the competition and have allowed 17.5ppg and 19.7ppg respectively this season. The Roosters specifically have allowed 20 or more points in only 1 of their last 11 games, and despite a poor record against the Storm, have still managed to hold them to 19.3ppg across the last 6 clashes between them played at AAMI Park. Tries have been difficult to come by and this is reflected by the recent tryscorers in this series. Of the last 10 tries scored, half of them have been scored by non-outsider backs (players not wearing jerseys 1-5). Katoa, Hughes, Brandon Smith and Lindsay Collins have been among those to cross for a try.

Prediction:
Haven’t been a huge fan of the Storm all season long and think we will see their true colours in the remainder of the regular season with battles against the Panthers, Rabbitohs, Cowboys and Broncos to come prior to the finals. The intentions of the Roosters are clear here with Robinson naming all his Origin players. Both teams have been excellent in attack this season, but this match will take on the complexion of a finals match, thus turning it into a defensive battle. That is an area where the Storm have been inconsistent with 22ppg conceded across their last 5. In comparison, the Roosters have limited their last 5 opponents to only 12.4ppg. Under is the best bet with the Roosters to potentially pull the carpet right from under the Storm with a big win.

Best Bet: Under 47.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Roosters 13+, 31-40 Total Match Points ($13.86)

4:00pm, Sunday 21st July | BlueBet Stadium, Sydney
It has been well over a year since the Panthers lost consecutive games in the NRL and they extended that with a tough win over the Broncos prior to last week’s bye. Nathan Cleary makes his long-awaited return, but it is not all good news for the reigning Premiers as Dylan Edwards could miss several weeks after sustaining an injury in the Origin decider. There was an intention to rest both Edwards and Yeo with neither named while it is not yet known what will happen with the trio of Luai, To’o and Martin. The Dolphins scored an upset win over the Rabbitohs last week and with the intention of building on that result, Wayne Bennet has named Tabuai-Fidow and Kaufusi. They will however be without Euan Aitken who sustained a season-ending pec injury.

Head To Head:
Their one and only meeting came in the same round last season. The Panthers walked away with the two points following a 24-14 despite missing/resting several key players including To’o, Cleary, Yeo and Martin. Isaak Tago bagged a double for the Panthers with Tabuai-Fidow among the tryscorers for the Dolphins.

Stats That Matter:
The Dolphins have a losing 4-5 record when coming off a win in the last year and head to BlueBet Stadium where the Premiers have been dominant. The Panthers have won 12 of their last 15 home games and have covered the line in 60% of those games. They are a perfect 10-0 in their last 10 at BlueBet Stadium in matches where they have a rest advantage. As is regularly the case, the Panthers have relied on their defensive intensity through the Origin period and have held their last 6 opponents to only 14ppg despite missing several of their best players in multiple games in that stretch. The Under is 3-0 in the Panthers last 3 games with an average of 38.2 total match points across their last 10 games.

Prediction:
Inclined to take the Under in early betting with the status of the Panthers Origin players still unknown. Moreover, with Nathan Cleary in his first game back following a long break, it could take a few weeks before he returns to his best form. The Under has held on in 64% of Dolphins away games in the last year and a big part of their game plan will be to play simple footy. Both teams rank in the top 5 for completion rate this season which suggests this one will be played through the middle third. The absence of Edwards and Yeo (with potentially more to be rested) will also hinder the Panthers ability to get out of their own end. Unders.

Best Bet: Under 47.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Turuva Anytime Tryscorer, Bostock Anytime Tryscorer ($3.56)

6:05pm, Sunday 21st July | 4 Pines Park, Sydney
These are two teams worth keeping a close eye on in the closing stages of the regular season. With Tom Trbojevic back in the no.1 jersey last week the Eagles were completely dominant in a 44-6 win over the Knights and have climbed to 7th with wins in 3 of their last 4. Cherry-Evans will back up from Origin, but Olakau’atu will not after being suspended for his part in a melee from the bench. The Titans are aiming for a fourth win in a row – a feat they have not accomplished since September 2020. Fotuaika played only 42 minutes on Wednesday night so will be backing up but the big question remains in the fullback position with Kini named to start but AJ Brimson listed on the extended bench. Expect a late change.

Head To Head:
The two teams have traded blows in this series, splitting the last 12 meetings with 6 victories each. The away team has won 8 of those games and this is surprisingly a scenario which the Titans have had some success in. They have won 6 of their last 9 as an away underdog in this matchup and have been successful at the line in the last three clashes overall (two outright wins). The Over has hit in 5 of the last 7 battles hosted by the Sea Eagles and there has been 60+ total match points in 4 of the last 7 clashes overall. Khan-Pereira is the most notable tryscorer having scored a double in each of his last two against the Sea Eagles.

Stats That Matter:
Defence has been a feature of the Titans three-game win streak in a stretch where they have held their opposition to 12.7ppg. It has been a similar story for the Manly side who have conceded 13.5ppg across their last four. It has helped them to a 3-1 record in that period. The Under is 5-2 in the Titans last 7 when coming off a win but they have managed to collect the points in only two of those games – their last two. We touched on Khan-Pereira’s streak against the Eagles, and if his recent form is to continue, he will feature heavily here. He leads the NRL with 16 tries in only 13 games played and had a double in the Titans 24-16 win over the Eels last week. The Eagles have been outstanding at home with a 10-1 line record in the last year. Something will have to give in this one as the Titans have covered the line in 6 of their last 8 as an away outsider.

Prediction:
There has been much to lie about the Titans in recent weeks and particularly the play of Jayden Campbell who has 6 try assists in his last two games alone. He has also slotted 15/15 goal attempts which is good news when wanting to back the Overs. The Titans have been an Unders team, but they will have to go try-for-try with the Eagles in this one. In addition to this, Gerard Sutton has been appointed as the referee for this one which is relevant. The Titans are 0-4 in their last 4 with Gerard Sutton holding the whistle while the Eagles are 8-6 in their last 14. With respect to the total, there have been 54+ total match points in 8 of the Eagles last 12 matches officiated by Sutton. The Titans will not be allowed to slow the play the ball down as they have been which will favour the home team.

Best Bet: Over 51.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Sea Eagles WIN, Khan-Pereira Anytime Tryscorer, Saab Anytime Tryscorer, Brooks Anytime Tryscorer ($16.96)

8:15pm, Sunday 21st July | Qld Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
These two teams have gradually climbed their way into the top 8 on the back of consistent performances over the last two months. The Bulldogs have won 5 of their last 6 with their last three wins coming by a combined total of only 6 points. Similarly, the Cowboys have claimed the points in 5 of their last 7 with four of those wins coming on the road. All reports suggest that all their Origin players will be backing up so look for the five names on the extended bench (Dearden, Holmes, Cotter, Nanai and Robson) to all come into the starting side. The Bulldogs will be without Max King and Salmon but there is some relief with Preston slated to return.

Head To Head:
Their one and only meeting last season came in Round 5, and it was a thriller. Matt Burton kicked the winning field goal in golden point – something he has done in each of the Bulldogs last two games leading into this one in wins over the Sharks and Warriors. The Cowboys have won 9 of the last 13 clashes but they have split the last 8 battles from 2018 onwards. Points have been hard to come by in this series with the Under holding on in 7 of the last 8 encounters. There has been an average of only 33.1 total match points across those games with only one of them producing more than 42 total match points.

Stats That Matter:
Despite ascending into the top 8, the Cowboys have won only 4 of their last 10 home games and have posted a mediocre 2-8 line record in those games. They have successfully covered the line in only 25% of games as the betting favourite in the last year and this is accompanied by a 4-7 line record in their last 11 following a loss. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are seeking a third consecutive win and have covered the line in 6 of their last 9 when coming off a victory. Most interestingly, the Under is 9-0 in their last 9 following a win to go with a 5-0 Under record in their last 5 leading into this one. With respect to tryscorers, Kyle Feldt has 4 tries in his last 3 games and has crossed for 14 tries in his last 13 games played at Qld Country Bank Stadium.

Prediction:
There is no better bet than the Unders in any match involving the Bulldogs this season. They have the second best defence behind the Panthers and have held teams to 16.4ppg this season. They have been cutting it very fine in recent weeks with their last two victories coming in golden point and will have to adjust in the pack with King and Salmon unavailable. The Cowboys have a clear edge in class in attack with a spine that includes Drinkwater, Dearden and Robson. The Bulldogs will ensure that this one is played at their preferred slow tempo but cannot see them holding the Cowboys to fewer than 20 points.

Best Bet: Under 46.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Cowboys WIN, 31-40 Total Match Points, Feldt Anytime Tryscorer ($10.08)