NRL Tips & Preview | Round 18

Despite missing Latrell Mithcell and Cameron Murray due to Origin, the Rabbitohs managed to extend their win streak to four games a fortnight ago. Coupled with the bye last week and they find themselves only four points outside the top 8. The Eels finals hopes virtually came to an end last week in a 34-26 loss to the Knights. No major changes to report for the home side outside of a Hopgood being ruled out for the rest of the season with a back injury. It is a case of all hands back on deck for the Rabbitohs with Latrell returning to fullback and Murray to lock which will see Koloamatangi back on an edge.

Head To Head:
It is fair to say that both teams have been relatively successful in the last 5 years but this series has been very lop-sided with the Rabbitohs winning 7 of the last 8 meetings. Surprisingly, all 7 of those wins have been by a 13+ margin! The Bunnies are 4-0 both straight up and at the line in the last 4 clashes as the away team and have posted a 9-2 line record in the last 11 as the away side. The Over has hit in 8 of the last 11 battles hosted by the Eels and the key to the Rabbitohs success has been their left side attack. Alex Johnston has been the biggest beneficiary with 10 tries in his last 5 against the Eels!

Stats That Matter:
The Eels have been unable to build any sort of momentum in the last year. They have covered the line in only 4 of their last 15 games following a loss and it is their defence which is hurting them. The Over has hit in 73% of those games and more recently, they have allowed a whopping 32.3ppg in their last 10 leading into this one. With a 5-0 line record in their last 5, the Rabbitohs have correctly been installed as favourites and that spells trouble for the Eels as they are 2-4 both straight up and at the line in their last 6 as a home underdog. The Rabbitohs defence deserves special mention as they have allowed a total of only 24 points across their last three games.

Prediction:
The Bunnies are on a roll and there will be no stopping them here. The Eels won’t be playing finals footy and that is relevant as it will have an impact on their motivation and determination. Last week was a classic example as they missed 47 tackles against the Knights and conceded a combined 4 tries to the left sided duo of Best and Marzhew. It will be the turn of Latrell, Alex Johnston and Cody Walker to feast on what is a very weak right side defence.

Best Bet: Rabbitohs -3.5 ($1.90)
Value: To Have 3+ Tries Combined (Duos) – Alex Johnston/Latrell Mitchell ($4.80)

With the game on the line last week, the Sharks failed to execute and the man at the centre of it all was Nicho Hynes. The Sharks have now lost 4 of their last 5 and could fall out of the top 4 if they fail to regroup in the coming weeks. A fortnight ago you could have pencilled them in for the two points against the Titans but that has changed after they destroyed the Warriors 66-6 prior to the bye. The visitors will lose Jayden Campbell who suffered a hand injury but do welcome back AJ Brimson, Jojo Fifita and Klese Haas adding strength in key areas across the park.

Head To Head:
This matchup has been a great source of points for the Sharks as they have won 9 in a row against the Titans. Playing them twice in 3 of the last 5 seasons has also been beneficial and wins in 7 of the last 10 as a home favourite has also helped. The neutral venue does not hold great relevance as only 1 of the Sharks last 4 as the home team have been played at their traditional home ground in Cronulla. The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 clashes hosted by the Sharks and they have had the Titans number with respect to limiting their attack. The Titans have scored no more than 18 points across the last 9 meetings (all losses) and have averaged a mediocre 11.67ppg across those games.

Stats That Matter:
They may be coming off the bye, but the Titans have not been successful in this scenario in recent times. The Titans are 0-5 in their last 5 following a win and have won only 2 of their last 8 as an away underdog. Covering the line in 6 of those matches is a positive and it is worth mentioning that the Sharks have trailed at half time in each of their last 6 games. The Under is 8-2 in the Titans last 10 night matches with 67% of the Sharks games following a loss in the last year also going Under the total match points. The Titans remain second in completion rate (82%) and have made the fewest errors of any team.

Prediction:
Under Des Hasler the direction for the Titans is clear. Complete your sets and slow down the ruck. The Warriors are the only team to be completing sets at a better rate than the Titans with the Gold Coast side having made the fewest errors and given away the least number of penalties. That spells trouble for a Shark side that is notorious for giving away silly penalties and making things hard for themselves. They had 10 different players make at least one error last week and that is unacceptable at this level. Happy to be on the Titans with the big start in what should be a lower-scoring contest than anticipated.

Best Bet: Titans +7.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Tri Bet 1-12 Either Team By Less Than 12.5, 1st Half Titans +3.5, Under 47.5 points, Khan Pereira Anytime Tryscorer ($8.30)

Origin continues to be one of the great equalisers in the regular season competition and the two grand finalists from last year are the perfect example. The Broncos have lost 4 in a row while the Panthers have lost 3 of their last 6. Those results would not occur had each side had their respective Origin stars available but there can be no excuses this week. Walsh, Haas and Carrigan return for the home team while the Panthers welcome back To’o, Luai, Martin and Edwards while Nathan Cleary is not far off.

Head To Head:
The Broncos let a winning lead get away from them in the Grand Final and one of the early competition favourites are now in danger of missing the eight altogether. The Panthers have won 7 of the last 8 meetings and earlier this year posted a dominant 34-12 win at the foot of the mountains. Brian To’o and Tago both scored doubles in that game but we should not forget that Reece Walsh was ruled out early following a reckless tackle. The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 clashes at Suncorp Stadium with no more than 37 total match points scored in any of those games. The Panthers have also won the last 4 between them at this ground with an average winning margin of 9.5 points across those games.

Stats That Matter:
There is no better time to back the Panthers than after a loss. They are a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 following a defeat and have been successful at the line in their last 6. Brisbane on the other hand are 5-4 both straight up and at the line in the last year after a loss with the Under holding on in 67% of those games. Losing four in a row is concerning for the Broncos but an 0-5 line record in their last 5 highlights just how much they have underperformed relative to market expectations. The Panthers have won 8 of their last 11 away games but have notably covered the line in only 2 of their last 9 as an away favourite.

Prediction:
With the Broncos down in 10th spot in the NRL ladder, the Grand Final rematch is more than just that for the home team – especially when you consider that they will again be without their Origin players for next week’s battle with the Dragons. It doesn’t matter from which angle you look at it, but we must be on the Panthers here. They have a tremendous record following a loss and they have consistently shown us that they have another level that they can go to when called upon. Their line speed in defence will be relentless and it will place the Broncos pack under huge pressure. Unlike other teams, the Broncos will not be able to go around the Panthers and will have to roll their sleeves up. Panthers will come away with the points in a vintage defensive battle.

Best Bet: Panthers -4.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Panthers WIN, Unders, Brian To’o Anytime Tryscorer ($4.79)

Last year the Warriors had developed an amazing culture and it showed in their footy. They were rewarded with a spot in the Preliminary Finals but have been unable to maintain that. A run of 6 losses in their last 10 has them down in 13th but a win over the Broncos last week, led by Te Maire Martin, helps. With respect to culture, the Bulldogs have ticked that box following some astute recruitment. It was on full display last week as they defended their line like the Trojans and held the Sharks to 14 points. Matt Burton slotted the winning field goal in golden point.

Head To Head:
This series has been dominated by the Warriors in recent years. They have won and covered the line in each of the last 6 meetings dating back to 2019 with low match totals a distinct feature. The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 clashes with 36 or less total match points in 4 of those games. The Bulldogs have been held to 12.3ppg in the last 6 (all losses) which includes two losses at Accor Stadium 24-12 and 20-14. Despite the low totals, Fonua-Blaike and Watene-Zelezniak have managed to score a try in 2 of their last 3 against the Bulldogs.

Stats That Matter:
Defence has been the key ingredient to the Bulldogs success so far in 2024. The Panthers are the only side that have conceded fewer points with the Bulldogs holding their last 5 opponents to 14.4ppg. That is less than half the 30.4ppg the Warriors have allowed in their last 5 but that average is blown out by the 66 points they gave up to the Titans a fortnight ago. The Under is 4-0 in the Bulldogs last 4 games and 8-1 in their last 9 following a win. The Bulldogs have been involved in a long list of close battles at home with their last 7 matches at Accor Stadium being decided by no more than 4 points.

Prediction:
Rain, hail or shine, you want to be on the Unders in all Bulldogs games. This is especially the case when the total is set in the mid-40s as it is here. They are defending in unison, with control and immense intensity. Their attack is still lacking, and they have scored more than 22 points in only 1 of their last 8 games. That makes it difficult to back them to cover the line and leaves them vulnerable in matches if they fall behind. Their attack offered very little last week with their two tries coming out of nothing. Kikau kicked to himself on the last after the play completely broke down for one and Mahoney snuck over from dummy half after a mountain of pressure stretched the defensive line. If the Warriors can get to 20 points, it will be enough to win the game.

Best Bet: Under 45.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Tri Bet 1-12 Either Team By Less Than 12.5, 31-40 Total Match Points, Kiraz Anytime Tryscorer, Montoya Anytime Tryscorer ($32.28)

The Tigers failed in their attempt to win three in a row for the first time in more than 6 years and were no match for the Roosters. They must now find a way to bounce back against the competition leaders who moved 4 points clear at the top after extending their win streak to four games. Naden has been dropped following his defensive struggles with Staines coming in on the wing and Faataape shifting to the centres. Bateman is back into the starting side with Heath Mason joining the bench and Porter dropping out of the seventeen. In more bad news for the Tigers, Papenhuyzen returns with Faalogo to the bench but no sign of Harry Grant who is being rested for a second consecutive game.

Head To Head:
It comes as no surprise to see that the Storm have won the last 6 clashes between these two clubs. They have averaged 36.3ppg in those matches with their outside backs running riot. Warbrick had 4 tries in Melbourne’s 28-6 win in their most recent meeting and there is no telling what Papenhuyzen can do as he has featured in only 1 of the last 5 games in this series. Despite the Storm having put up some big scores, the overall totals have been low. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings and 7-1 in the last 8 hosted by the Tigers. Only 1 of the last 8 battles between them at Leichhardt Oval has produced more than 40 total match points with an average of 32.4 total match points in those games.

Stats That Matter:
As devastating as the Storm have been, they have had some issues defensively. This has been the case on the road where they have allowed 20+ points in each of their last 4 – three of which have been against teams currently outside the top 8. Moreover, they have covered the line in only 5 of their last 18 (28%) games following a win. The Tigers have won their last 3 at Leichhardt Oval including both games played there so far this season. Recent games at the ground have been low scoring with 4 of the last 5 having 38 or fewer total match points. In addition to this, the Under has held on in 13 of the Tigers last 18 games when coming off a loss.

Prediction:
The key to this contest for the Tigers will be containing Melbourne out wide. Manu, Young, Tedesco and Tupou put on a clinic last week but the quartet of Warbrick, Anderson, Bradley and Howarth are not of the same class. If they can control Papenhuyzen the Tigers can turn this into a genuine contest. We have seen the bounce-back factor in full force in recent weeks and one of those teams was the Tigers who followed up a 42-point loss to the Dragons with an outright win over the Titans. Not saying the Tigers will end the Storms’ win streak but do have them keeping this one closer than the market suggests.

Best Bet: Tigers +13.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Under 51.5 points , Laulilii Anytime Tryscorer ($5.23)

The Cowboys were given little to no chance against the Panthers last week but for the second time in a month, they beat one of the competition heavyweights without their key Origin players. It was a monumental defensive effort which was the catalyst for the result, and they have now won 5 of their last 6. All 6 representative players (Holmes, Cotter, Taulagi, Dearden, Nanai and Robson) are back for this one but the Eagles have some significant ins of their own. Tom Trbojevic has been named in the centres with Koula to play fullback. Garrick makes him comeback after the compulsory concussion protocols with all Origin players (Cherry-Evans, Jake Trbojevic and Olakau’atu) also named.

Head To Head:
For the 7th time in the last 8 years this will be the one and only meeting between the two clubs. At one stage the Eagles had won four in a row in this series, but the Cowboys have returned serve with victory in each of the last two with both of those wins coming at 4 Pines Park. In what can only be described as unusual, playing at home has not been an advantage in this matchup with the away team winning 7 of the last 8. The Eagles have come away with the points in each of their previous 4 trips to Townsville and have been successful at the line in 7 of the last 8 meetings as the away team. The statisticians have been busy when these two face off as 3 of their last 4 encounters have produced 54+ total match points.

Stats That Matter:
The Sea Eagles head to the top end with an 0-4 line record in their last 5 away games which includes outright losses in their last 3. Victory in only 1 of their last 7 as an away underdog suggests they will struggle here but they have managed to cover the line in 8 of their last 10 when coming off a loss. In addition to this, the Cowboys have consistently underperformed in this scenario having successfully covered the line in only 2 of their last 9 as a home favourite. One thing is for certain, and it is that there will be plenty of points. The Over has hit in each of the Cowboys last 5 home games and in 9 of the Eagles 12 away games played in the last year.

Prediction:
With their respective Origin players all back on deck and Tom Trbojevic finally making his return for the Eagles making this the one match footy fans should be tuning in to watch this weekend. There has been an average of 53.7 total match points in games played at Qld Country Bank Stadium this year and if Tom Trbojevic can play out the full 80 minutes there is no telling what this total could reach. The Cowboys have been susceptible to conceding tries through the middle third so don’t be surprised if Olakau’atu or Ben Trbojevic get on the scoresheet.

Best Bet: Over 51.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Sea Eagles +1.5, Olakau’atu Anytime Tryscorer, Feldt Anytime Tryscorer ($10.90)

Last week’s 40-6 win over the Tigers was yet another display of the Roosters devastating attack. Unfortunately for them they will be without a key component for the foreseeable future after Joseph Manu suffered a fractured hand. Tupouniua and Jennings have been assigned as the centres for this week with Lindsay Collins back in the starting side and Terell May reverting to the bench. The Dragons were comfortable 26-6 winners over the Dolphins in Round 17 and receive an additional boost with NSW Blues winger Zac Lomax back in the team after being rested.

Head To Head:
Their most recent clash on ANZAC Day was an absolute massacre with the Roosters posting a record 60-18 win. They improved their record in this series to 10-2 in the last 12 meetings and have won the last 8 when listed as the home team. The Over has hit in each of the last 4 clashes with a minimum of 46 points and an average of 64.25 total match points across those games. James Tedesco has scored at least one and a total of 6 in his last 4 against the Dragons with Luke Keary also finding the line 4 times in his last 3 against the Red V.

Stats That Matter:
Putting a string of wins together has not been one of the Dragons strengths in the last year. They have won only 2 of their last 8 following a win and have tasted victory just 3 times from their previous 11 away games. Despite their recent clashes having a mountain of points, there are several trends which point toward a low scoring contest. The Under has held on in 9 of the Dragons last 11 road games and similarly 8 of the Roosters last 12 at home. The Under is also 4-0 in the Roosters last 4 – largely due to the fact that they have allowed only 12ppg during that span. If that is not enough, the Under has held on in 75% of Roosters games following a win in the last year. The Chooks have been solid at home in the last year having posted a 7-2 record both straight up and at the line.

Prediction:
The Dragons will be relieved to hear that Joseph Manu will not be taking the field as he had two tries on ANZAC Day and a hand in several others. With Jennings and Tupouniua listed to line up in the centres the home side will not be as dangerous in attack as what we have become accustomed to. The Dragons held the Dolphins to a single try last week and have conceded 15ppg in their last 4. Defending the ruck is critical against the Roosters as they lead the NRL in dummy half runs. Containing Brandon Smith and Connor Watson will be a priority – especially if the forecasted wet weather eventuates. The Under is the best play and should be taken as early as possible.

Best Bet: Under 53.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Dragons +13.5, 41-50 Total Match Points ($6.29)

The writing is on the wall for the Raiders after three very poor performances (all losses). They are down to 12th on the ladder, and it has forced Ricky Stuart into shaking things up. Weekes has been shifted to fullback, Rapana is back to his traditional wing spot, Albert Hopoate now occupies one of the centre spots and Adam Cook is the new halfback. In contrast, the Knights are on the up after an impressive win over the Eels last week and welcome back the reigning Dally M winner Kalyn Ponga. Leo Thompson also returns with Fletcher Sharpe taking up the utility role on the bench.

Head To Head:
The Knights have won 6 of the last 9 clashes but the Raiders got the better of them 28-14 in Round 1 this year in Newcastle. That ended a 3-game win streak for the Knights in this matchup and means the away team has won 3 of the last 5 encounters. They have shared the spoils in the last four played at GIO Stadium (2 wins each) but the Knights have posted a 4-0 line record in those games. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings at this venue and only 3 of the last 8 between them have produced 50+ total match points.

Stats That Matter:
When the Knights get on a roll, they can be difficult to contain. They have won 12 of their last 16 games following a win and have been successful at the line in 63% of those games. The Raiders showed some improvement defensively in the 16-6 loss to the Storm, but it was their attack that failed to show any spark whatsoever. They have allowed 30.5ppg across their last 10 and have lost their last three games at GIO Stadium. The Over is 3-0 in their last 3 home games as a result and that streak will likely continue with the Knights averaging 25.3ppg in their last 3 away games.

Prediction:
The return of Kalyn Ponga is enormous for the visitors and cannot be underestimated. Their left side had been dormant in his absence until last week and the two men that will be licking their lips with excitement are Bradman Best and Greg Marzhew. This time last year Pinga went on one of the most remarkable 10-game stretches we have ever seen! If he can remain healthy, Knights fans and footy fans alike are about to witness another incredible run. Overs and Knights with Marzhew to score 10+ tries in the run home.

Best Bet: Over 49.5 points ($1.87)
Same Game Multi: Knights WIN, To Have 3+ Tries Combined (Duos) – Bradman Best/Greg Marzhew ($6.99)