A stable on the PGA Tour since 1972 when it was known as the Quad Cities Open, the John Deere Classic has been the maiden PGA Tour wins for the likes of Payne Stewart, David Toms, Jordan Spieth and Bryson DeChambeau while Steve Stricker has claimed the event three times.
Key Stats/Skill Set Required
- Putting Average
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Birdie or Better
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- GIR
- Proximity: 150-175 Yards
- Bogey Avoidance
- Scrambling
TPC Deere Run has hosted the John Deere Classic since 2000 and is renowned as one of the easiest courses on Tour where scoring will be low and a ton of birdies are required to win. You cannot succeed here without a hot putter. Fairways are 41 yards wide, the widest this side of the Plantation Course in Hawaii, while it has ranked i the 15th easiest courses in scoring in four of the last five years.
Key Correlation Courses/Tournaments
- Colonial Country Club
- Copperhead
Putting and scoring are so crucial at Deere Run that we have to find the best putter and the best putter is likely Denny McCarthy. He ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Putting while he is elite around the greens too ranking 6th in Bogey Avoidance. Most notably he leads the field in putting on bentgrass greens. Form on the correlation courses is strong with Top 25s at the 2023 Valspar and the 2024 Charles Schwab. Finished T-6 the last two years here. Big expectations this week.
Aaron Rai
We are going back to the well with Rai after he led heading into the final round in Detroit last week only to miss by a shot when shooting a poor even par on Sunday. Rai ranks 2nd in GIR, 4th on Bogey Avoidance and 6th in Strokes Gained: Approach. Finished 12th in the Charles Schwab Invitational last year. With his putting improving – he has positive true strokes gained on the green in five of his last eight including a +1.18 true strokes gained – he will be in the mix again for his first PGA Tour crown.
Nick Dunlap
Alabama product Nick Dunlap burst onto the scene in January, winning The American Express as an amateur, the first win by an am on the PGA Tour in 33 years. He has tended to struggle since turning pro but may be finishing his feet. In his last three regular season starts he has Top 12 finishes at The Memorial and the Rocket Mortgage. Ranks 10th in Birdie or Better, 15th in Putting Average and 20th in Bogey Avoidance. Fancy he will be right in the mix.
Joel Dahmen
The ever-popular Joel Dahmen has been trending in the right direction of late and this is the kind of tournament he can win. He has now made seven straight cuts and finished Top 25 at his last two starts including a very good T-10 at the Canadian Open. He has played here only four times but was T-2 in 2018. His iron game has been strong ranking Top 20 in GIR, Strokes Gained: Approach and Proximity: 150-175 Yards.
Patton Kizzire
Veteran Patton Kizzire is a mammoth price this week once again. We tipped him last week and he finished T-20 after a very good week around the greens, a skill that will suit here again. Kizzire has been one of the best iron players on Tour this year, ranking 4th in GIR and 8th in Strokes Gained: Approach. He also ranks Top 20 in Birdie or Better. He has four Top 25s in his last six starts and has three Top 25 finishes in his last five starts. He is once again an excellent bet to finish Top 20.
With the Scottish Open next week, most elite British players on Tour have taken the opportunity to return home. That leaves a fairly week field of seven and Rai is the standout. He should have won it all in Detroit last week. He is known for his consistency. A tremendous bet.
Fritelli was a shock winner of this event back in 2019 and returns to play his first event on the PGA Tour this year after playing his trade on the DP World Tour in 2024. It has helped him turn his form around. He won in Bahrain and has finished Top 33 in three of his last four. This is a head-to-head and the outsider is the play.