The UFC heads to Saudi Arabia for the first time in the organization’s history thanks largely to influential combat sports figure Turki Al-Sheikh. The action is topped by a late-notice banger between Robert Whittaker and Ikram Aliskerov while the remainder of the card is rounded out with a bevy of future and former contenders.
2-2 in his last four, Robert Whittaker has consistently been placed up against elite opposition and is fresh off a decision win over Paulo Costa earlier in the year. Besides getting buzzed by a highlight reel kick, Whittaker largely controlled the contest with activity and the clean striking tools that he has grown popular for.
Whittaker has had a long career for someone only 33-years-old and while he has been finding success, there is cause for concern with how often he has been getting rocked. Fairly durable and well-conditioned, Whittaker is a well-rounded former champion with troves of fans for good reason – but he may have seen his best days.
Whittaker still has a consistent jab and high fight IQ that serves him greatly but getting stunned even in winning efforts is not a good look as he approaches a fight with a finish-minded Ikram Aliskerov.
Originally scheduled for a bout against Antonio Trocoli last week, Aliskerov was moved to Saudi Arabia for a headliner that means significantly more. Aliskerov is 2-0 in the UFC and has been building a name for himself as a versatile, powerful fighter. With origins in Sambo and a respectable resume even before he entered the UFC, Aliskerov has quickly garnered attention for his well-rounded skills and finishing ability.
Though he is capable everywhere, I expect him to win or lose this fight on the back of his striking skills. With demonstrated power in every limb, Aliskerov has his best opportunity to catch Robert Whittaker early in the fight before the experienced veteran can find his rhythm and settle in.
Whittaker is one that tends to get better, or smarter, as the fight goes on. Aliskerov is at his best in the early portion, but has shown some tendency to fade down the stretch.
A potential fight of inverses, Aliskerov will need to start quick and force the action while Whittaker is cold. The longer this goes, the better chance Whittaker has to read Aliskerov’s timing and pull away late to narrow the gap.
Bet: Ikram Aliskerov By KO/TKO @ $3.50
Amassing a 1-1 record across the last year, Sergei Pavlovich notched a quick win over Curtis Blaydes but was dispatched of even faster by Tom Aspinall. 18-2 overall, Pavlovich was set back in his last outing but is still motivated for a future title shot.
Offense-first and focused on the finish, Pavlovich is capable of ending things everywhere but does his best work on the feet. With heavy hands and the thudding power you would expect, Pavlovich’s best chance of getting his hand raised will be ending things early.
His towering foe Alexander Volkov brings a significant length advantage to the table and unlike many tall fighters of heavyweight past, Volkov is quite adept at using his height. The mighty height of Volkov would pose enough challenge on its own but the 6’7” (201cm) striker has become increasingly successful as a sniper on the feet.
A big (no pun intended) fan of long kicks and keeping his opponents worn out at the end of his range, Volkov has learned hard lessons about what happens when hard-hitting, stocky opponents get close. Volkov is riding a three-fight win streak into this bout and those wins came over shorter, heavy hitting opponents not unlike Sergei Pavlovich.
While there is something to be said about the explosive nature and power of Pavlovich posing a greater threat than most of Volkov’s past foes, the stylistic challenges for Pavlovich remain nonetheless. A front-runner by nature and forced to lead the action if he wants any chance of catching Volkov cleanly, Pavlovich will need to get things done early before he gets picked apart at range.
Volkov has proven a deceptively agile, intelligent fighter and this is the kind of spot where Volkov has been finding increasing success. Look for him to poke and frustrate Pavlovich en route to an upset win.
Bet: Alexander Volkov Head to Head @ $2.90
1-2 in his last three and with his back against the wall this weekend, Kelvin Gastelum has already started things off fairly poorly.
Originally set for welterweight, Gastelum allegedly had issues making that number and the fight was adjusted to middleweight. Despite being only 32-years-old, Gastelum has had a long career filled with slug fests, injuries, and drastic weight cuts. Though he looked reasonably good against Chris Curtis last year, he did little to impress against Sean Brady in the follow-up.
Now competing at a heavier weight against the naturally larger fighter, Gastelum will have his hands full as the betting favorite against Daniel Rodriguez.
“D-Rod” is on a two-fight skid but has a lot to offer as a well-rounded dark horse. His level of competition has been steady since entering the organization in 2020 with a win over Tim Means; though he has recently stumbled, Rodriguez is a competent fighter with reasonable power and fairly sharp striking. In fact, the time may be just right for Rodriguez to put on a solid show as the underdog.
Rodriguez will be at danger of getting taken down but should find some success against Gastelum on the feet. The cracks in Gastelum’s durability seem to be widening and Rodriguez has the physical assets necessary to challenge that assertion. No win over Kelvin Gastelum is easy but Rodriguez has the kind of tools Gastelum hates dealing with at this point of his career: the agility to keep up and the power to put down.
Bet: Daniel Rodriguez Head to Head @ $2.90
Multiple opponent changes, including one on fight week, have plagued the 2024 return of Sharabutdin Magomedov but he finally settles on meeting Antonio Trocoli in Saudi Arabia.
12-0 as a professional and one of the biggest favorites on the card, Magomedov made a successful debut in the organization with a decision win over Bruno Silva. With a history in Muay Thai, Magomedov was predictably a step ahead on the feet but did showcase some vulnerabilities on the mat.
A hard-hitting striker with creativity and thudding power, Magomedov is a bit of a wild man in and out of the cage but somehow manages to mitigate his tempers well enough to avoid mindless exchanges on the feet. Magomedov will undoubtedly hold an edge as long as he stays upright but his weaknesses in the departments of wrestling and grappling will be tested by Antonio Trocoli this weekend.
Trocoli has had a tumultuous path to the UFC that includes a failed drug test and multiple scheduling issues with a multitude of opponents. These issues compounded into a nearly three-year layoff and now on three-day notice, he travels to Saudi Arabia as a heavy underdog to make his organizational debut.
A grappler at heart, Trocoli is a towering 6’5” (196cm) and it is a wonder how he ever made the welterweight limit. Competing at middleweight for this contest, the deck is certainly stacked against a weight-drained, short-notice Trocoli. However, Trocoli has the skill set that could give Magomedov disastrous trouble in this outing despite the odds suggesting otherwise.
The bigger fighter by a significant margin, Trocoli will likely be running on limited time to get Magomedov down and tapping before things get away from him. The longer this fight goes, the more likely Magomedov will take control. Trocoli is a big enough question mark on his own considering the layoff but even at his best, Trocoli has been trumping mediocre competition.
This contest serves as a big step up under very difficult circumstances but there is value in Trocoli finding his way on top and exploiting a major hole in the dangerous game of Magomedov.
Bet: Antonio Trocoli By Submission
With pick’em odds and a win badly needed by both, Johnny Walker and Volkan Oezdemir will be putting their best foot forward this weekend to open UFC on ABC 6’s main card.
The minor betting favorite if there was one, Johnny Walker is looking to rebound from a tough stoppage loss to Magomed Ankalaev earlier this year. Despite the setback, Walker is still 3-1 in his last four overall and has done well to temper what was originally a chaotic career liable to fall off the rails.
An imposing light heavyweight at 6’6” (198cm), Walker has not always used his length effectively but has clearly grown as a fighter in recent years. An athletic and explosive striker with high-flying offensive capabilities, Walker does his best work when he is composed but still struggles to suppress his love of jumping and spinning attacks.
Naturally, these aggressive tendencies can leave Walker open to being countered but he has nonetheless rarely shown a fear of attacking. That said, the physical disparity between Walker and his foe this weekend will be apparent and it is an interesting challenge for Volkan Oezdemir to overcome.
Now 34-years old, Oezdemir is 2-2 in his last four and has only lost to elite opposition in recent years. Nine months removed from a fairly clean win over Bogdan Guskov, momentum is beginning to mount for Oezdemir. An increasingly intelligent fighter, Oezdemir will not be able to match Johnny Walker in pure athleticism but is the technically sharper fighter overall.
With arguably superior conditioning and a well-rounded set of tools in his arsenal, Oezdemir may look to take this fight to the ground when Walker inevitably charges in. If this bout is kept at range, Walker should have the ability to score points and avoid getting bombed out; yet there is an unknowable level of volatility that fogs every fight involving Johnny Walker.
All said, Oezdemir is a deceptively savvy fighter but is liable to be physically overwhelmed by Walker this weekend. With a win desperately needed for both, I anticipate Walker to play it a bit safer than usual and keep the pace of things relatively low. This will force Oezdemir to play catch-up on the taller, more explosive fighter and fall behind on the scorecards.
Bet: Johnny Walker By Points @ $5.00
Whittaker v Aliskerov: Ikram Aliskerov By KO/TKO @ $3.50
Pavlovich v Volkov: Alexander Volkov Head to Head @ $2.90
Gastelum v Rodriguez: Daniel Rodriguez Head to Head @ $2.90
Magomedov v Trocoli: Antonio Trocoli By Submission
Walker v Oezdemir: Johnny Walker By Points @ $5.00
Haqparast v Gordon: Jared Gordon Head to Head @ $2.90
Naimov v Lima: Muhammad Naimov By Points @ $4.50
Fakhretdinov v Dalby: Rinat Fakhretdinov By Points @ $2.05
Kyung-ho v Gafurov: Kyung Ho Kang Head to Head @ $2.35
Gadzhiyasulov v Ribeiro: Magomed Gadzhiyasulov By KO/TKO Or Submission @ $1.45
Long v Chang-ho: Chang Ho Lee Head to Head @ $1.94