The UFC will shed the big crowds this weekend when they return again to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Headlined by a make-or-break standoff between Tatsuro Taira and Alex Perez, UFC on ESPN 58 is filled out entirely by the smaller half of the roster in the featherweight division and below.
5-0 in the UFC and surging since his debut in the organization, Tatsuro Taira has been wholly successful and accumulating hype. At only 24-years-old, the sky alone may not be ceiling enough for the Japanese grappling talent.
Three finishes over his five UFC wins have showcased a willingness to close the show, but more importantly Taira has been clean in his victories no matter the length of the bout. A grappler to his core, Taira is quickly gaining recognition for his exceptional back control in a way few have spoken so positively of since the primes of Demian Maia or Aljamain Sterling. Now, Taira has an opportunity to put those skills on display against the best opponent of his career.
Alex Perez, only 32-years-old, resents being written off during a three-fight skid. Marred with injuries, layoffs, and a litany of other issues, Perez got back to action earlier this year and got things started poorly by losing to Muhammad Mokaev. A month was all Perez needed to get back in the cage and notch a dramatic KO win as an underdog against Matheus Nicolau.
A longtime veteran, Perez is a highly capable fighter with particularly solid takedown defense. Though he has fallen prey to the pace and skill of high-level grapplers in the past, he is less commonly put in a straitjacket and slowly controlled. That dynamic may turn out to be relevant here, as Perez has shown a reasonable gas tank and should be capable of fending off some early takedown attempts from Taira. That said, recent outings have showcased Taira’s focus on rounding out his striking, and this contest may not be one-sided if Perez manages to fend off a round or two of takedown attempts.
A patient but comparably inexperienced striker, Taira is competent on the feet but will surely have his best success when he gets Perez down. The key point here is that Taira will get Perez down at some point, even if he fails on initial tries. Once this fight does hit the mat, Taira has shown just the kind of skill set that troubles Perez.
It isn’t likely to be as easy a win as some of his recent ones, but Taira has what it takes to drag this to the mat and earn his preferred victory. This is the right fight at the right time for Tatsuro Taira; a chance for him to stake his claim to opponents in the top 10.
Bet: Tatsuro Taira By Submission @ $2.40
This weekend serves as potential “do-over” for Timothy Cuamba after making an unsuccessful organisational debut earlier this year. Few can hold the split decision loss against Cuamba though, as he entered the bout on short notice having fought only a week prior; not only that, but the bout was contested at lightweight.
Now returning to his featherweight stomping grounds, Cuamba is favored to notch his first win in the UFC and get back on track. A modern example of a mixed martial artist, Cuamba is capable everywhere and has shown familiarity with all aspects of the sport.
Though not a one-trick pony, Cuamba does his best work on the feet unloading quick right hands and mixing in the occasional tie-up. Where he lacks in submission ability he makes up for with competent striking and reasonable takedown defense.
He finds an intriguing match-up in Lucas Almeida, a heavy-handed Brazilian fighting for his spot on the roster. 1-2 in the organization and on the last fight of his contract, Almeida’s back is against the wall as he seeks a much-needed win after consecutive losses to Pat Sabatini and Andre Fili. The methods in which Almeida was bested – Sabatini abused a wrestling advantage while Fili floored him from the feet – did little to stoke optimism.
Almeida is not a shy fighter and he does possess some power in both hands, but his defensive liabilities have come back to bite him and he does not seem to be making much ground on that front. Offense-first but lacking the speed and timing necessary to enforce high-risk game plans, Almeida tends to get drawn into exchanges that are statistically coin-flips at best and catastrophic at worst.
With Almeida having shown a past vulnerability to punches coming from his left side, the sharp right hand and striking strengths of Cuamba should be able to shine. The verdict is still out on Cuamba as a relevant future prospect but he has a grand opportunity to ride clean circumstances and a favorable match-up into a more reasonable showing in the UFC.
Bet: Timothy Cuamba By KO/TKO @ $2.85
Since beginning his stint in the UFC with a 3-2 record, Miles John has started to pick up momentum. Having clearly controlled his last three outings, Johns appears to be hitting his stride as he approaches his tenth year as a professional. A longtime wrestler, the American has done well to adapt his game to MMA; at this point he is one of the most deceptively well-rounded fighters not yet ranked in the top 15.
Takedowns are an expected part of Johns’ typical game plan but where he tends to surprise people is with his fast hands and solid timing on the feet. Though he lacks explosive power, Johns is rapidly improving his technical skills and melding his offensive tools with increased efficiency.
He finds himself as the minor betting favorite over Douglas Silva de Andrade. The 38-year-old Andrade fought only once last year, beating out Cody Stamann by decision. Before that, 2022 consisted of two fights and a 1-1 record that did little to raise the stock of Silva de Andrade. That said, even as he pushes 40, the determination to finish fights is still there for the Brazilian.
With heavy hands that have ended the vast majority of his fights, Silva de Andrade is unafraid of winging big shots on the feet and hoping for the best. Technical savvy can be a lacking asset for Silva de Andrade but he will bring the heat to Johns in this contest, seeking out a finish before he gets dragged into deep, messy waters.
The odds are narrow in this fight under the presumption Silva de Andrade will give Johns plenty of trouble on the feet, but struggle in tie-ups. This may come to fruition, but I am optimistic about the development Johns has shown in the last year.
Since setting up shop at Marathon MMA headed by fellow UFC veteran Trey Ogden, there is no questioning the strides Johns has made as an overall fighter. As the more versatile fighter, Miles Johns has an opportunity to finally notch a dominant win over a relevant opponent and stake his claim to ranked fights.
Bet: Miles Johns Head to Head @ $1.70
One of the biggest favorites on the entire card, Asu Almabayev enters this contest riding a 15-fight win streak that includes two wins in the UFC.
Wins over Ode Osbourne and C.J. Vergara were built on the back of effective and determined wrestling with 11 takedowns to his credit over those two bouts alone. Almabayev spent years minting himself on regional circuits but slowly accumulated the experience and challenges needed to develop him into a high-caliber fighter.
At this point, Almabayev is putting it together and looking like a strong future contender for the flyweight division. Though he lacks one-punch knockout power, his striking is better than his record would suggest and does well to guide him into tie-ups where he can dominate. With an increasingly deadly top game in his arsenal, Almabayev has a clear route to victory against the tricky and exceedingly lanky Jose Johnson.
Making his flyweight debut as a 6’0” (182.88cm) man with past bouts at featherweight and bantamweight, the weight cut alone served as the first hurdle for Johnson to get past. Though he found a submission win in his last outing, Johnson is set on his move down to become the tallest flyweight in the UFC.
With such a sizable advantage in length, Johnson will surely be looking to keep this fight on the feet and at range. That said, keeping Almabayev from establishing takedowns is a task far easier said than done and even in a pure striking affair, Almabayev has a better chance to score points and find prosperity than their heights would suggest.
Look for Almabayev to control the majority of the bout no matter where it takes place, though I expect him to seek out a submission to end things before the final bell.
Bet: Assu Almabaev By Submission @ $2.00
Opening the main card of UFC on ESPN 58 will be two prospects with 2-1 records in the UFC.
27-year-old Garrett Armfield is the favorite this weekend, largely due to an impressive performance as an underdog against Brad Katona this year. The win signaled the second in a row for Armfield but more importantly showcased serious improvements in Armfield’s game.
After stuffing the majority of Katona’s wrestling, Armfield was able to establish control on the feet and it is likely he will seek a similar game plan this weekend. Armfield is a plucky fighter with multitudes of heart but only recently has been showing a dedication to controlling exchanges with his jab and putting a focus on cleaner work.
The strides Armfield has made on the feet will go a long way against 25-year-old Brady Hiestand.
After an initial loss to Ricky Turcios in his orgnaizational debut, Hiestand has been entirely successful notching wins over Fernie Garcia and Batgerel Danaa. The improvements of Hiestand have been apparent since his loss to Turcios three years ago and it is clear Hiestand still has a lot to offer as a prospect.
That said, he faces a challenging stylistic match-up as he looks to return from a 14-month layoff brought on by staph infections, sepsis, and a torn knee. Though a competent wrestler with reasonable grappling skills, Hiestand may not have an easy route to successful takedowns this weekend. Rather, this contest may end up being contested largely on the feet and testing the striking skills of the prospects.
Both have shown a willingness to scrap and I expect them to bring the best out of each other here. At this point it feels Armfield has the more cohesive game and a better history of effective game planning. Though this may end up being a closely contested bout, I expect Armfield to exploit advantages on the feet and allow his cleaner striking to tip the scales at the final bell.
Bet: Garrett Armfield By Points @ $3.00
Taira v Perez: Tatsuro Taira By Submission @ $2.40
Almeida v Cuamba: Timothy Cuamba By KO/TKO @ $2.85
Johns v Silva de Andrade: Miles Johns Head to Head @ $1.70
Almabayev v Johnson: Assu Almabaev By Submission @ $2.00
Armfield v Hiestand: Garrett Armfield By Points @ $3.00
Ulanbekov v Van: Joshua Van Head To Head @ $2.80
Maness v Flick: Nate Maness By KO/TKO @ $1.50
Quinlan v Fugitt: Adam Fugitt Head To Head @ $2.05
Fernandes v Judice: Gabriella Fernandes Head To Head @ $1.60
Saragih v Wilson: Jeka Asparido Saragih By KO/TKO @ $1.53
Knutsson v Polastri: Josefine Knutsson By Points @ $1.95
Costa v Nuerdanbieke: Melquizael Costa By Points @ $2.80