Origin I began and ended inside 10 minutes after referee Ashley Klein did the unthinkable and sent Joseph Suaalii off for a high shot on Reece Walsh. The Maroons would go on to expose the Blues right edge to build a 20-6 lead at half time. The Blues fought valiantly buy fatigue would be a factor in the tail end of the contest as the Maroons ran in three tries to run away with it 38-10. The result means that Queensland is one win away from a 3rd consecutive series win and with the final game being played at Suncorp Stadium, the Blues have an enormous task ahead of them.
Team News:
NSW Blues: Some will say it is difficult to analyse a team’s performance if they spend more than 70 minutes down to twelve, but it hasn’t stopped Michael Maguire from making a host of changes. The SOS call has gone out to Latrell Mitchell who will take up the left centre position with Stephen Crichton switching to the right. Dylan Edwards was a late withdrawal after being chosen for the series opener and will wear the no.1 jersey with Tedesco being dropped. Nicho Hynes has also made way for Mitchell Moses with McIness and Hudson Young also axed. Connor Watson will make his debut as the utility with hardman Cameron Murray also back in the side.
QLD Maroons: The well-oiled machine that is the Maroons have not missed a beat in the lead up with Reece Walsh recovering from concussion and Nanai taking part in training sessions over the weekend. J’maine Hopgood is one of only two changes from the series opener and was ruled out of selection after suffering a lower back injury. No cause for alarm though as Kurt Capewell, a 10-game Origin veteran and multiple series winner, replaces him on the bench. Cobbo was the saviour in Game I but has been overlooked by Billy Slater who has opted for Felise Kaufusi as a third forward on the interchange.
Head To Head:
Queensland improved to H2H 70-58 all-time in State of Origin with two draws. The Maroons are one win away from a 25th series with the gap widening as the Blues are currently stuck on 16 and in danger of falling further behind. The last series whitewash was in 2010 and it is the only 3-0 series result from 2001 onwards. If Queensland manage to win Game II in Melbourne, they will huge favourites for a whitewash win at Suncorp Stadium.
Stats That Matter:
The Unders was all but declared as a morale leading into Game 1 but any chances of that happening were destroyed by Ashley Klein. A shift to a neutral venue is significant as it means a change in how the contest will be officiated. The last 6 battles at a neutral ground have produced an average of 42.3 total match points and a minimum of 32 points. Last year’s series opening in Adelaide ended 26-18 in favour of the Maroons with Tabuai-Fidow and Cobbo scoring two tries a piece. Tabuai-Fidow has made the Origin arena his own with at least one try in each of his last 5 Origin appearances. There is hope for NSW as they have won the last three matches at the MCG and expect Latrell Mitchell to make an impact as he has scored at least once in each of his last three Origin appearances.
Prediction:
There isn’t a single footy fan that does not want the Blues to force a decider. That includes even the most passionate Maroons fans who would love nothing more than to give it to the Blues up at Suncorp Stadium. We were robbed of a genuine contest by the referee in Game I and it is fair to say that the Blues will get the rub of the green with respect to the 50/50 calls here. They have an excellent record at the MCG having won the last three games there and neutral venues always lead to higher scoring matches. The Blue look far more threatening with Latrell, Cameron Murray and Edwards in the side with Connor Watson a genuine impact option off the bench. The Maroons have an edge with respect to continuity, but Mitchell Moses will help provide a far better kicking game than the Blues had in Game I. The Overs is the best bet with the Blues to force a series decider.
Best Bet: Over 37.5 points ($1.82)
Value Bet: To Have 2+ Tries Combined (Duos) – Tabuai-Fidow/Latrell Mitchell ($4.20)
Same Game Multi: NSW WIN, Zac Lomax Anytime Tryscoreer, 41-50 Total Match Points ($11.55)