10:05pm, Wednesday 6th June | Accor Stadium Sydney
The fierce rivalry between the NSW Blues and QLD Maroons resumes with the Maroons firm favourites to win a third consecutive series. This will be just the 2nd time since 2017 that the series opener will be played in Sydney which is an advantage the Blues will need to capitalise on. The Maroons clinched the series in Game II at Suncorp Stadium last year with the Blues preventing a whitewash by winning Game III at this venue. That victory was not enough to save Brad Fittler his job and the introduction of Michael Maguire as coach has brough about numerous changes.
Team News:
NSW Blues: James Tedesco has replaced the injured Dylan Edwards at fullback with the captain’s armband being handed to Jake Trbojevic. A long list of injuries has seen the Blues land with the duo Nicho Hynes and Luai in the halves. Zac Lomax and Joseph Suaali’I are among six debutants and will be alongside one another on the right edge. Reece Robson has edged out Koroisau for the no.9 jersey with Cameron McIness replacing Isaiah Yeo at lock. He has been relegated to a bench rotation that includes debutants Olakau’atu and Spencer Leniu.
QLD Maroons: Whether it be through a system that they have created over a long period of time or pure luck, the QLD side seems to pick itself. Tom Dearden is the obvious replacement for the injured Cameron Munster at 5/8 and the only real surprise is the omission of in-form David Fifita with Jaydn Su’a the preferred option. Reece Walsh, Cherry-Evans and Ben Hunt complete the spine with Harry Grant adding the impact off the bench in a dual hooker strategy that has served them well. Coach Billy Slater couldn’t find room in the starting side for Selwyn Cobbo, but he will come off the bench, as will their only debutant J’maine Hopgood.
Head To Head:
What started as an experiment has grown into the greatest rivalry in Australian sport. This will be the 43rd edition of State of Origin and of the 129 games played, Queensland leads the H2H 69-58 with two draws. Of the 3-game series played, the Marrons victory last season was their 24th while the Blues have tasted success 16 times. The last series whitewash was in 2010 and it is the only 3-0 series result from 2001 onwards. Reuben Cotter is the reigning Wally Lewis Medal winner with no current Blues player have earned that honour.
Stats That Matter:
Game 1 has historically been a low scoring contest. There have been 34 or fewer total points in 11 of the last 13 series openers with 7 of the games having less than 30 total points. Accor Stadium is notorious for low scoring matches, especially in these circumstances. There has been an average of only 19.25 total match points across the last 4 series openers played at this ground which suggests points will be very hard to come by. The Blues have won 9 of the last 14 games played at Accor Stadium but it is the Maroons who have won the last 3 series openers at this ground. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow was the only player to score in all three matches last year but has some way to go before he catches Valentine Holmes who has 13 tries in 16 Origin appearances.
Prediction:
The intentions of new coach Michael Maguire are evident through his selections. He has selected players who excel in the areas of effort and work rate. The likes of Walsh and Tabuai-Fidow give the Maroons a significant advantage with respect to pure athleticism but Game 1’s at this ground have followed a distinct patter for more than two decades. Points are very hard to come by and the contest is generally played between the 20m lines. The wide players will have limited opportunities and the ability to come out of your own end will be crucial. The Blues have an advantage here as the trio of Edwards, To’o and Lomax rank 1st, 2nd and 5th in run metres so far this season. The Unders is a special and it won’t be a surprise of this one is decided by a single point.
Best Bet: Under 36.5 points ($1.90)
Value Bet: Tri Bet 1-6 – Either Team By Less Than 6.5 points ($2.45)
Same Game Multi: NSW Win By 1-6, 21-30 Total Match Points ($14.31)