NRL Tips & Preview | Round 14

10:00pm, Friday 7th June | WIN Stadium, Wollongong
An excellent second half performance saw the Dragons overcome a 10-0 deficit to beat the Panthers 22-10. Meanwhile the Tigers collected two premiership points courtesy of the bye, but it doesn’t change the fact that they have lost their last 8 games. The Dragons have named the Origin trio of Hunt, Lomax and Su’A on the extended bench so keep a close eye on updated team lists. Their absence will open the door for a Tigers upset.

Head To Head:
Low scoring games has been the theme in their recent battles with the Under going 5-0 in their last 5 meetings. The Under is also 4-0 in the last 4 hosted by the Dragons – all of which have been played at WIN Stadium. The average total across those games is a mere 28ppg with no more than 38 total points scored in any of those fixtures. The Dragons have won 4 of the last 5 meetings including a 24-12 win earlier this year at Campbelltown Stadium (Round 6). The Dragons have won 8 of their last 12 as a home favourite in this series but have successfully covered the line in only 1 of their last 8 attempts as a home favourite against the Tigers.

Stats That Matter:
Putting together a streak of wins has not been a strength of the Dragons. They have won only 1 of their last 7 following a win and have posted a mediocre 2-5 line record in those games. The Tigers 48-28 drubbing at the hands of the Cowboys a fortnight ago ended their remarkable Under streak but we are likely to return to normal proceeding here as the Under has held on in 9 of their last 10 games. Both teams are averaging fewer than 20ppg this season with the Tigers down at 15.7ppg. We’ve had both teams score fewer than 20 points in 4 of the last 7 clashes meaning 20 points will be more than enough to collect the two points on offer.

Prediction:
The weatherman is predicting a cold and windy night down at the ‘Gong’ which is the final tick of approval for a bet on the Unders. The Tigers have struggled in attack all season long and the absence of Hunt is significant as he leads the NRL with 16 try assists so far this season. If the Tigers are to have any success it will be by attacking down the left. The Dragons have conceded 51% of their tries down the right third and Alamoti did cross for the Panthers last week playing left centre.

Best Bet: Under 47.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: 31-40 Total Points, Justin Olam Anytime Tryscorer ($14.41)

5:00pm, Saturday 8th June | Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast 
The bye may have come at the wrong time for both teams as they both were impressive winners in Round 12. The Rabbitohs ended a 6-game losing streak with a 42-26 win over the Eels with Latrell Mitchell setting up three tries and Koloamatangi crossing for two. That result was not as impressive as the Titans, who as big outsiders, beat bitter rivals Brisbane 36-34. There is more good news for the home side with Foran, Jayden Campbell, Jojo Fifita and Sami all set to return while Fotuaika has been named to back-up from Origin. Cody Walker has been named to return for the Rabbitohs and is set to partner Wighton in the halves.

Head To Head:
This has been a matchup that the Rabbitohs have exploited in recent years. They have won the last 8 clashes between the two sides and their dominance is further highlighted by a 5-0 line record in the last 5. The Rabbitohs have averaged 33.25ppg in their 8 wins over the Titans and as expected, Alex Johnston has been a major beneficiary with a hat-trick in each of his last two against the Titans. The Over is 3-0 in the last 3 hosted by the Titans and an average of 54 total match points across the last 6 meetings is why the total has been set so high.

Stats That Matter:
If we consider their respective record following a win, we wouldn’t want to back either one of them. The Rabbitohs are 0-5 both straight up and at the line in their last 5 following a loss with the Titans 1-5 record in their last 6 on the back of a win also concerning. There is one department where the Titans have been reliable and that is at the line. They have covered the line in each of their last 8 games leading into this one while the Rabbitohs are 0-7 at the line in their last 7 as the away team. The Rabbitohs have averaged 38ppg in their last 4 against the Titans at Cbus Super Stadium.

Prediction:
With both teams scoring 20+ points in 7 of the last 8 games involving the Titans and a history of high scoring matches in this series, this will likely be the highest scoring game of the round. The total is set high enough but with 70+ total match points in their respective matches last time out and very little focus on defence, the high scoring trend is likely to continue. The return of Foran and Campbell will add additional spark to the Titans attack and Latrell Mitchell will finally have the duo of Walker and Alex Johnston to combine with. The outside backs are going to have a field day in this one.

Best Bet: Over 53.5 points ($1.85)
Value Bet: To Have 4+ Tries Combined (Trios) – Alex Johnstons/Khan Pereira/Jojo Fifita ($3.70)

7:30pm, Saturday 8th June | Qld Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
Nobody gave the Cowboys a chance last week, but they managed to defend their way to an 18-16 win over the Roosters. From a betting perspective it was one of the biggest upsets of the season and they are now seeking a 4th consecutive win. The Warriors know all about playing with their backs against the wall. After all, they have won their last two games as the underdog and despite missing a long list of key players. Fonua-Blake, Nicol-Klokstad, Tohu Harris and Tuaupiki are among the names back in the lineup for the trip to Townsville. The Cowboys have named their 6 Origin players (Holmes, Dearden, Cotter, Taulagi, Nanai and Robson) on the extended bench with Robson and Cotter the least likely to take the field after playing extended minutes in the middle.

Head To Head:
The Warriors completed the season double over the Cowboys last season in two low scoring matches 26-12 and 22-14. Their 14-point win in the corresponding fixture ended a run of five consecutive wins for the home team in this series but it is worth mentioning that the Cowboys have won 6 of their last 8 as a home favourite against the Warriors. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 clashes and 4-2 in the last 6 between them played in Townsville. Montoya has 3 in his last 3 against the Cowboys and could be value despite having crossed for only three tries so far this season.

Stats That Matter:
Momentum has been the key to the Warriors success in the last 12 months and they have lost only 3 of their last 15 when coming off a win. The spot they have struggled most in is on the road as the outsider. They have won only 1 of their last 6 as an away underdog and have covered the line in only 33% of those games. The Cowboys on the other hand have a 75% win rate as a home favourite in the last year but have failed to cover the line in each of their last 7 as the betting elect (regardless of location). The Over is 4-0 in the Cowboys last 4 home games with Kyle Feldt a special to score as he has 6 in 6 games played at Qld Country Bank Stadium this season.

Prediction:
The outcome of this game will rest heavily on the participation of the Cowboys Origin players. Irrespective, the Warriors will put them to the test here. They rank 2nd in possession, completion rate and run metres which means this will be a battle through the middle third. The total looks excessive to say the least, especially if the Warriors have the mindset of completing their sets and kicking to the corners. The Under is the most attractive play with the Warriors being undervalued by the market to post an upset win.

Best Bet: Under 49.5 points ($1.96)
Same Game Multi: Warriors +13.5, Feldt Anytime Tryscorer, Montoya Anytime Tryscorer ($5.49)

9:35pm, Saturday 8th June | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
It has been a rough fortnight for the Sharks. They were flying at the top of the NRL ladder but back-to-back heavy defeats to the Panthers and Eels has seen the Storm overtake them at the top. The Broncos are coming off a very disappointing 36-34 loss themselves and with only 2 points separating them and the 12th placed Dragons, Kevin Walters does not have the luxury of resting his Origin stars. All have been named to back up but Walsh will miss out the next two games following the sickening hit he received in the opening minutes of Origin I. The Sharks have opted to rest Nicho Hynes who has been left out altogether.

Head To Head:
Their recent meetings have been defensive battles with the Under holding on in each of the last four clashes. There has been an average of 34.75 total match points across those games with the Broncos being victorious in three of them. The Broncos have won 9 of the last 11 meetings and dating further back have a 10-3 record in the last 13 as the betting favourite. Despite a lack of points in their recent battles, Kotoni Staggs has managed to cross for a try in each of his last two against the Sharks.

Stats That Matter:
An area of strength for the Broncos in recent times has been their ability to bounce back. They have won 6 of their last 7 following a loss and a 5-2 line record in those games highlights just how good they have been when placed under pressure. More specifically, the Broncos are 4-0 at the line in their last 4 at home when coming off a loss. One of the keys to this has been a shift to a defensive mentality. The Over has hit in 78% of Broncos games following a win in the last year but after a loss it is the Under which has grabbed the cash in 71.5% of games.

Prediction:
The Sharks have gone from title contenders to pretenders in the space of two weeks. Their defence was impenetrable up until three weeks ago, but they have conceded 106 points across their last three games alone. That will have been the area of focus from Craig Fitzgibbon but slowing down the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium is one of the toughest tasks in the NRL. The Broncos have a tremendous record covering the line in this spot, but I suggest waiting as one or two of their Origin players may be late withdrawals. That will not be a negative as it means the line will be wound in. Regardless of who takes the field, you want to be on the Broncos minus the start.

Best Bet: Broncos -3.5 ($1.83)
Same Game Multi: Broncos WIN, Under 46.5 points, Staggs Anytime Tryscorer ($8.94)

4:00pm, Sunday 9th June | AAMI Park, Melbourne
It must be a good feeling when you can grab top spot on the ladder on your week off. That is what happened with the Storm despite having lost two of their last three as the Sharks have capitulated in the last fortnight. Harry Grant and Xavier Coates have been named to play and after getting through Origin unscathed should take the field. The Knights were woeful in a 32-2 loss to the Bulldogs last week and although Aiden O’Brien has named an unchanged 17, there is talk that Fletcher Sharpe will replace Daniel Armstrong at fullback.

Head To Head:
The Storm had won 11 in a row in this series leading into the 2023 season, but the Knights have ended that streak with wins in each of their two clashes since. That includes a narrow 14-12 in Round 3 earlier this year at McDonald Jones Stadium. Interestingly, this will be the first time since 2019 that they will meet at AAMI Park and the location is significant. The Storm have won the last 4 meetings at this venue by an average of 22ppg and have held the Knights to 20 or fewer points in their last 10 battles at AAMI Park. Nick Meaney, who debuted for Newcastle in 2018 has scored a try in 3 of his last 4 against his former club.

Stats That Matter:
There is no better time to back the Storm than this. They are 11-0 in their last 11 following a loss and have posted a 6-2 line record in their last 8 in that situation. The Storm have been dominant at home in the last year winning 12 of 14 games and points has been the theme with the Over hitting in 71.4% of those games. A 14-1 record in their last 15 at AAMI Park speaks for itself and it has been almost a decade since the Knights won in Melbourne. The Knights have won their last 3 away games, but it is necessary to tread with caution as they have come away with the points in only 2 of their last 7 as an away underdog.

Prediction:
If there is one player that should be dropped for the Knights, it is Jackson Hastings. He made multiple errors last week, missed multiple tackles, gave away a silly piggyback penalty and failed to execute with his kicking game. Will Pryce continues to wait in the background, and it is only a matter of time before he gets his opportunity. The Storm are clinical at home and are living proof that discipline and commitment wins games in the NRL. The Knights will not be able to sustain the level required to beat the Storm on their home turf.

Best Bet: Storm -13.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Storm WIN, Over 47.5 points, Eliesa Katoa Anytime Tryscorer ($4.28)

6:05pm, Sunday 9th June | Penrith Stadium, Sydney
There was further evidence last week that State of Origin is the ultimate equaliser in the NRL with the Panthers and Roosters both beaten as firm favourites. The likes of To’o, Yeo, Martin and Luai have all been named to back-up from Origin, but the biggest shock came when Dylan Edwards was named on an extended bench after being ruled out of Game 1. We will have to keep a close eye on team lists closer to kick off and the same applies for Cherry-Evans. Blues captain Jake Trbojevic and Olakau’atu are certainties to play as both logged fewer than 30 minutes on the field on Wednesday night.

Head To Head:
Leading into their Round 5 clash at 4 Pines Park earlier this season, the Panthers had won 8 in a row in this series. The Sea Eagles said enough is enough and produced their best performance of the season in a 32-18 win. History suggests it will be difficult to replicate that effort as the Panthers have won their last 4 at home to the Eagles and 7 of the last 8 as a home favourite in this matchup. They have successfully covered the line in 5 of their last 7 (including their last two) as the betting elect at home. The Under is 6-2 in the last 8 clashes hosted by the Panthers with the reigning premiers holding the Eagles to 12 or fewer points in all but two of their last eight meetings overall.

Stats That Matter:
Following their upset loss to the Warriors, the Panthers were installed as outsiders for their trip to Cronulla. It was a mistake as they showed everybody why they are seeking a fourth consecutive title. They dismantled the Sharks 42-0 and improved to 6-0 in their last 6 following a loss. That includes successfully covering the line in their last 5 on the back of a defeat and this is the time when they dig their heels in and produce their best. Defence has been the key in those games, and they have conceded only 9ppg in those 6 abovementioned games. The Eagles have won only 1 of their last 7 as a road outsider and an 8-1 Under record in their last 9 against the Panthers at this ground indicates that they will need to put on a defensive display for the ages if they are to cause an upset.

Prediction:
The Panthers have proven time and time again that they do not have two bad performances in a row. Their line speed in defence was tremendous in the win over the Shark’s following their last defeat and we should see a very similar situation here. Cannot see the Eagles scoring more than two tries which makes the Unders a great bet here. The Premiers will defend their line as only they can do.

Best Bet: Under 43.5 points ($1.85)
Same Game Multi: Panthers WIN, 31-40 Total Match Points, Turuva Anytime Tryscorer ($8.11)

6:00pm, Monday 10th June | Accor Stadium, Sydney
We have been blessed with Monday night football courtesy to the King’s Birthday long weekend and there couldn’t be a better way to celebrate it than with two teams that absolutely hate each other facing off. The Eels returned to the winner’s circle last week with Mitchell Moses instrumental in ending what was a 5-game losing streak. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs made it back-to-back wins for only the second time in their last seven attempts with a dominant 32-2 win over the Knights. Stephen Crichton was one of the Blues best on Wednesday night and will return with Burton also available after serving as 18th man. Hopgood has been given the green light for the Eels with Blaize Talagi to replace the injured Simonsson in the centres.

Head To Head:
The Eels have dominated the Bulldogs in recent years with wins in 8 of the last 9 meetings including each of the last 4. Their Round 1 battle to start the 2024 season ended 26-8 in the Eels favour and was the 4th consecutive win by a 13+ margin for the Eels in this series. This has historically been a low scoring series with the Under holding on in 18 of the last 23 clashes. There has been fewer than 40 total match points in 14 of the last 20 meetings and it has been 35 games since they both scored 20+ points in the same game.

Stats That Matter:
The Bulldogs have turned a corner in 2024 and this is supported by a 5-0 record both straight up and at the line in their last 5 home games. The Under is 6-1 in their last 7 following a win and they have held their last 10 opponents to an average of only 14.2ppg. That contrasts with the Eels as the Over is 8-0 in their last 8 away games with an average of 56.4 total match points across their last 5 leading into this one. They were a different team with Moses and Gutherson back on deck last week and the latter has been dangerous at this venue having scored at least one try in 8 of his last 9 appearances at Accor Stadium.

Prediction:
Defence is pivotal to building a winning culture in the NRL and the Bulldogs have taken a monumental leap in the right direction. In their last two games specifically, they have shown that they can defend their line for an extended period and then have the stamina to go on and attack. The Eels may have ended a losing streak last week but still leaked 20+ points for an 8th consecutive game. If they concede 20+ points here, they will lose as the Bulldogs will be holding them to no more than three tries. Unders!

Best Bet: Under 46.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Bulldogs 1-12, Eels Under 24.5 points, Kiraz Anytime Tryscorer ($8.89)