The UFC hits the road once again and this time brings the action to the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri. Headlined by heavyweights Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento, UFC on ESPN 56 is filled to the brim with stylistic contrasts and razor close match-ups.
Once a formidable fixture in the UFC’s heavyweight division, Derrick Lewis has struggled in recent years to maintain his footing. 1-4 dating back to 2021, the blueprints of Lewis have long been exposed and he now sees those vulnerabilities exploited with regularity. A relaxed but deadly fighter, Lewis continues to have monumental finishing power in every limb but his timing, consistency, and output have waned significantly in the face of injuries and Father Time. Though favored this weekend at 39-years-old, Lewis will have no easy task ahead of him in another potential stylistic nightmare. The taller fighter by an inch (3cm) and the younger man by eight years, Rodrigo Nascimento has an opportunity to propel himself into divisional contention with a win over an organizational mainstay. Nascimento is riding a four-fight win streak and already has his game plan out in the open. Having stated he needs “only one takedown” to potentially win the fight, Nascimento is plenty capable of exploiting some of Lewis’ glaring weaknesses. That said, there is some cause for concern when Nascimento’s singular loss – a 0:45 KO loss to Chris Daukaus – is considered. While there is no question these men are on very different trajectories, Nascimento will have to get this to the floor quickly or risk having his momentum stolen from him. Lewis is not the persistent, looming threat he once was but still poses a danger to anyone in the division for a few minutes. Once Nascimento has escaped the earliest portions of the fight, he can settle in on timing the right takedown and ending the night when lands on top.
Bet: Rodrigo Nascimento By Submission @ $4.00
A small betting favorite this weekend, Joaquin Buckley advocated for his spot on this card and gets his wish granted less than two months since his last fight. A longtime middleweight, Buckley finally made the move down to welterweight in 2022 and has strung together three big wins since. Clearly hitting his stride as a fighter, Buckley seems to be putting his talents together after years of struggling to find a balance in his powerful striking, fast attacks, and occasionally overzealous offense. This time around, Buckley will be in with a powerhouse of a foe who looks to end things early before a heavy, short-notice weight cut makes its impact. Nursulton Ruziboev has competed over 40 times in organizations most haven’t heard of but that hasn’t stopped his game plan from remaining the same in UFC bouts. An imposing fighter at 6’5” (195.5cm), Ruziboev fights with aplomb developed over years of manhandling smaller, outmatched opposition. Ruziboev enforced a similar offense against Brunno Ferreira and Sedriques Dumas but will be making the drop down to welterweight for this weekend’s affair. Though Ruziboev has competed in the division before, it has been several years since he’s made the divisional limit. A powerful fighter with a sharp right hand and a willingness to swing with Buckley has historically been problematic for the American, but Buckley seems to be figuring it out. The faster, smoother fighter overall, Buckley does have the tools to exploit his agility and employ steady hit-and-move tactics. This is one of the biggest litmus tests of Buckley’s career, as he needs to get past comparably brutish, potentially weight-drained foes if he hopes to contend for a title at 170lbs.
Bet: Joaquin Buckley Head to Head @ $1.78
A clear betting favorite and riding a five-fight win streak, Carlos Ulberg has continued to refine his tools and evolve his game as he climbs steadily up the heavyweight ranks. Ulberg has maneuvered well in picking up cleaner wins over Ihor Potieria and Da Woon Jung, both of which showcased Ulberg’s increasingly diverse talents. A striker through and through, Ulberg is actually one of the sharper, technically sound fighters in the division. Though Ulberg naturally owns a hefty thud to his punches, he is most importantly quite skilled and composed for a fighter with a relatively short MMA career. Ulberg will receive a favorable and like-minded match-up in Alonzo Menifield. A towering physical threat, Menifield is a late start to fighting having minted his athleticism on the turf of American football fields. Lacking some of the finesse of his peers, Menifield makes up for it with raw power in both hands and surprisingly persistent strength down the stretch. By most accounts, this contest has “finish” written all over it but there is a world in which this turns into a slower-paced affair than anticipated. Having gassed out and been defeated in his singular loss, Ulberg corrected the majority of his pacing issues and now tends to maintain a lower, but more consistent work rate. Menifield has always been prone to tiring, whether his hulking attacks show it plainly or not. In response, Menifield has also dropped his work rate and now seeks to steal big moments and snatch rounds away. Though largely outdone by former kickboxer Dustin Jacoby, that sneaky game plan saw Menifield find the right successes and ultimately win the decision. I expect him to seek a similar strategy against Ulberg – another faster, smoother striker – but doubt it results in as much success.
Bet: Carlos Ulberg By Submission Or Points @ $4.00
3-0 in the UFC with two finishes, Mateusz Rebecki is not yet a household name but is rapidly on his way to becoming one. A roving offensive dynamo who seems to pull his fuel straight from a well, Rebecki is rapidly aligning himself as one of lightweight’s best prospects. A well-rounded threat, Rebecki builds everything around a steady work rate but owns the versatility to break foes down anywhere. His striking has garnered attention for its speed and sharpness, but Rebecki has uncorked effective wrestling and grappling that allow for all his offensive tools to shine. With such a consistent and open-minded approach to attacking, Rebecki has proven difficult to fend off. Meeting the Polish dynamo this weekend will be longtime veteran of the sport Carlos Diego Ferreira. Since making his organizational debut in 2014, Ferreira has accumulated an impressive resume and beaten a number of notable names but those victories seem long gone in 2024 as Ferreira stares down 40-years-old. A victory over Michael Johnson last year was a bittersweet performance, as he mounted little meaningful offense prior to putting Johnson to sleep with a single punch. No such fate will befall Mateusz Rebecki, who has an opportunity to push a strong pace on the older, slower fighter at UFC on ESPN 56. As is often the case, the veteran deserves immense credit for their prime time successes but this looks to be a case of a younger, better fighter taking the torch one way or another.
Bet: Mateusz Rebecki By KO/TKO Or Submission @ $1.83
Making his organizational debut at UFC on ESPN 6, 50 events on ESPN later and Sean Woodson is on the main card favored against a longtime veteran. 5-1-1 in his stint, Woodson has clearly improved in his craft but still brings many of the same strengths and weaknesses he always has. Owning roots firmly planted in boxing, Woodson still possesses sharp hands and an excellent sense of timing. Those quick hands have served him well as he developed other portions of his game and at this point he is now one of the most frustrating fighters to deal with on the feet. Woodson is prone to lapses in volume but nonetheless showcases solid skills when he is actually letting his offense go. As such a rangy fighter, Woodson will surely welcome a lengthy kickboxing match against Alex Caceres. Known best as “Bruce Leeroy”, Caceres is as consistent as ever though he may be rapidly approaching the tail end of his life cycle as a fighter. Well-rounded and owning a resume few could hope for, Caceres is capable of competing anywhere but will likely oblige a slow-paced striking affair this weekend. Historically, Caceres is not one to push a blistering pace but it is exactly that frenzied pressure that Sean Woodson struggles most with. Savvy kickboxing matches fought at a cerebral pace tend to favor Woodson and it is unlikely Caceres will fight outside of his usual to force an upset.
Bet: Sean Woodson By Points @ $2.00
An Olympic bronze medal in taekwondo is currently the biggest accomplishment in the life of Robelis Despaigne but he now has his eyes set on a world title in MMA. 5-0 in the sport with as many first round finishes, Despaigne has already proven a devastating and imposing figure on the feet. A successful debut made in 0:18 bolstered the hype, but Despaigne gets a real step up in competition this weekend when he takes on Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Though there is a clear physical advantage for the 6’7” (200cm) Olympian, he has yet to see the second round in MMA and faces a deceptively durable, well-conditioned fighter. Cortes-Acosta has notched two wins in a row and last time out took a decision over Andrei Arlovski, but needs to put it all together in order to get a win this weekend. Cortes-Acosta is quick and surprisingly savvy but he needs to drag this fight into the second half and impose his will there. If Cortes-Acosta ends up getting stuck on the outside against Despaigne, it will only be a matter of time before he becomes another victim. A win for Cortes-Acosta is viable but he needs to push himself forward and be the aggressor, lest he fall prey to the lengthy devastation of Robelis Despaigne.
Bet: Robelis Despaigne By KO/TKO @ $1.55
Pantoja v Erceg: Alexandre Pantoja By KO/TKO Or Submission @ $2.65
Martinez v Aldo: Jonathan Martinez Head to Head @ $1.67
Petrino v Smith: Vitor Petrino By KO/TKO Or Points @ $1.32
Pereira v Potieria: Michel Pereira By KO/TKO @ $1.80
Borralho v Craig: Caio Borralho Head to Head @ $1.14
Brito v Shore: Joanderson Brito By KO/TKO Or Submission @ $2.20
Lucindo v Kowalkiewicz: Iasmin Lucindo Head to Head @ $1.22
Orolbai v Brener: Elves Brenner By KO/TKO Or Submission @ $4.20
Klose v Silva: Joaquim Silva Head To Head @ $2.70
Ruffy v Mullarkey: Mauricio Ruffy By KO/TKO @ $2.00
Barbosa v Kareckaite: Dione Barbosa Head To Head @ $1.38
Bonfim v Pichel: Ismael Bonfim Head to Head @ $1.16
Costa v Borjas: Alessandro Costa Head To Head @ $1.75