UFC 301 Preview & Tips

With one defense of his title successfully in the books, Alexandre Pantoja relishes the opportunity to give a shot to someone fresh. Having spent the last few years battling longtime veterans like Brandon Royval, Brandon Moreno, and Alex Perez, there is no questioning the resume and experience of Pantoja at this point. Winning the title off Moreno and defending against Royval, Pantoja’s progression as a fighter has been significant. Well-rounded and dangerous everywhere, Pantoja is a quick starter but has developed a greater sense of pacing in recent years. No longer as apt to burn out and struggle down the stretch, Pantoja has begun settling into his skills and setting up clean work. Arguably underrated on the feet, Pantoja is best known for his devastating grappling skills and quick scrambling ability but is a very capable fighter on the feet. Aside from his sharp timing, Pantoja has demonstrated enough power to clearly concern his foes. The power in particular will be an important characteristic against Steve Erceg, a technically sound newcomer to the division’s top 10. Gifted with a title shot, Erceg will be quick to make the most of the opportunity as a well-rounded young contender. At only 28-years-old, the sky is the limit for Erceg. With the majority of his wins coming by submission, one would be forgiven for assuming Erceg is a grappler at heart. Rather, he simply lacks finishing power but is actually quite a well-rounded mixed martial artist. Technically sound in every aspect of the sport, Erceg is a precise fighter who keeps his mind working inside the cage. Though undoubtedly a high-level fighter who will display some impressive things this weekend, Erceg is going to find himself in treacherous waters against Pantoja. On the feet, Erceg may find some advantages with combinations but is unlikely to avoid every quick shot Pantoja wings past his head. Five rounds is a long time to be stuck in the cage with an aggressive finisher like Pantoja, and Erceg has yet had to deal with such a dynamic and dangerous threat. Even as Steve Erceg’s stock is likely to have risen by Tuesday morning, I do expect Pantoja to demonstrate his explosive capabilities and end the night without need of judges.

Riding a six-fight win streak with two of those wins coming via low kicks, Jonathan Martinez finds himself in the unique position of being favored against Jose Aldo. Seven years younger than his foe, Martinez is the fresher fighter on an upward trend. A refined striker with a fondness for body work, sharp low kicks, and clean boxing combinations, Martinez is a fighter cut from similar cloth as Aldo. In fact, Martinez is putting out his career-best work in recent outings and this contest serves as a strong litmus test for both. Even as Aldo approaches 40 years of age, the storied former champion and Martinez match up exceptionally well for entertainment. Aldo, a man who requires little introduction, has been out of the cage for nearly two years but don’t consider it a big layoff. While contemplating his future in MMA, Aldo put on the boxing gloves and was fairly successful, going 1-0-1 including a draw with familiar veteran Jeremy Stephens. At this point of their respective careers, it is easy to assume the younger Martinez has all the tools to blow past an older fighter some argue as obsolete. On the contrary, Aldo seen everything Martinez has to offer and will be able to counter some of his usual weapons (such as calf kicks). There is no question Aldo is in the final stages of his career, particularly as an elite fighter, but he is not apt to getting run over this weekend. In what I expect to be a savvy and potentially low-volume contest, look for Martinez and Aldo to do a lot of slow probing like the cerebral experts they are. The superior output and more reliable consistency of Martinez is likely to tilt the scales in his favor, but he would be served well not to get overzealous in a pivotal fight.

26-years-old and unbeaten as a professional, Vitor Petrino has had a steady and consistent climb up the ranks and now finds himself in a hugely important match-up against a perennial contender. 4-0 in the UFC, Petrino has demonstrated a statistically well-rounded set of performances across his tenure. With two decision wins sandwiched around a KO and submission, Petrino has clearly shown an ability to play to his advantages. Though he is not the savviest fighter in the division, Petrino is a strong fighter driven to push his opponents back and exploit their reactions. With relevant punching power and a background in striking, Petrino looks fairly comfortable on the feet but has recently been demonstrating a newfound focus on mixing in takedowns. A heavy opponent from top position, these recent process-driven victories have showcased a new ceiling for a man previously thought too raw and plodding to breach the elite. On the other end of the spectrum, Smith is fighting for his right to remain in the top 10 of the division. 1-3 in his last four with a brutal TKO loss to Khalil Rountree marking his last appearance, Smith has struggled to regain the form that once saw him challenge Jon Jones for the light heavyweight title in 2019. Though he is now 35-years-old and facing down 20 losses as a professional, Smith deserves credit for his evolution into a well-rounded, immensely experienced contender. With a sharp jab, good conditioning, and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Smith is ultimately a very skilled and competent fighter everywhere. That said, he seems to be a step behind in recent years and a youthfully aggressive fighter like Vitor Petrino is unlikely to be a fun match-up for him. Though Smith may hold some advantages in a technical sense, he is apt to struggle with the power and physicality of Petrino – particularly as his offense now includes hefty takedown attempts. There is a world in which Smith can find success with his jab and stay mobile enough to keep Petrino guessing, but it would require a vintage performance from Smith in a way we haven’t seen in a long time.

A hefty betting favorite and only two months removed from a rousing win over Michal Oleksiejczuk at UFC 299, Michel Pereira has been surging across a seven-fight win streak. At only 30-years-old, Pereira has survived a career that spans 13 years and a staggering amount of experience. Now finding his footing as a composed and dangerous fighter, Pereira is putting his skills together and outputting impressively dynamic offense. With finishing ability both on the mat and on the feet, Pereira has always been consistently well-rounded but has recently been hitting a stride. With speed, timing, and power on his side, Pereira is a danger for anyone willing to strike with the occasionally high-flying offensive dynamo. With good reason, Pereira finds himself heavily favored against fellow striker Ihor Potieria. Arguably best known for his retirement of Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, the Ukrainian Potieria has struggled to maintain momentum since. Potieria managed to grind out a decision win over Robert Bryczek earlier this year but remains in a challenging match-up this weekend. In what is likely to be an extended striking contest, Potieria is unlikely to find success with his usual strategy of lengthy kicks and surprising surges from the southpaw stance. A veteran with plenty of experience against southpaws, Pereira should be the far quicker and slicker fighter here. Potieria is fortunately already prone to “all or nothing” approaches, and he will need such a big, surprising moment to break the rhythm of a superior striker; else, look for the Brazilian betting favorite Pereira to fold his foe before the final bell.

5-0 in the UFC with a steady ascent through the organization, Caio Borralho has remained an intriguing, savvy, and highly successful prospect. Borralho has recorded only one finish – a submission – across his five bouts in the Octagon but don’t mistake his lack of finishes for a lack of ability. A highly composed fighter inside the cage, Borralho has handled fringe contenders with relative ease. Securing victory on the back of wrestling-heavy game plans, Borralho is a competent grappler with solid control on the mat but not a reckless man quick to give up position. The Brazilian remains similarly consistent on the feet, preferring to pick his shots carefully and score meaningful points as opposed to winging taxing offense with little value. With a clear process to eliciting victories, Borralho will be met by a comparably chaotic fighter in Paul Craig. Hailing from Scotland and known for his lightning quick submission ability, Craig is a gifted grappler who pushes tirelessly for submissions at every opportunity. Craig has taken the chance to drastically improve his striking in recent years, but he remains a submission ace at heart who does his best work when fights are dragged to the mat – one way or another. This weekend serves as a fascinating clash of styles and the biggest test of Caio Borralho’s career. Craig is poised to create violence in any way he can and though he will be at a disadvantage in pure technique, his tendency to create scrambles and latch onto submissions in transition cannot be discounted. Borralho has proven himself a fairly cerebral fighter and that mental consistency will aid him greatly in sticking to the game plan. Borralho is likely to find success with takedowns if he wants it, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him spending time in the guard of Paul Craig. Though dangerous waters to wade around in, Borralho is unafraid of slowing the pace down and isn’t prone to making easily exploited mistakes. Furthermore, he will be the stronger fighter at UFC 301 with the ability to push forward and force Craig to create big moments from disadvantaged positions. Few people get their hand raised against Paul Craig without some anxious moments but Caio Borralho has every tool he needs to get a relatively clean win over a real contender.

Pantoja v Erceg: Alexandre Pantoja By KO/TKO Or Submission @ $2.65

Martinez v Aldo: Jonathan Martinez Head to Head @ $1.67

Petrino v Smith: Vitor Petrino By KO/TKO Or Points @ $1.32

Pereira v Potieria: Michel Pereira By KO/TKO @ $1.80

Borralho v Craig: Caio Borralho Head to Head @ $1.14

Brito v Shore: Joanderson Brito By KO/TKO Or Submission @ $2.20

Lucindo v Kowalkiewicz: Iasmin Lucindo Head to Head @ $1.22

Orolbai v Brener: Elves Brenner By KO/TKO Or Submission @ $4.20

Klose v Silva: Joaquim Silva Head To Head @ $2.70

Ruffy v Mullarkey: Mauricio Ruffy By KO/TKO @ $2.00

Barbosa v Kareckaite: Dione Barbosa Head To Head @ $1.38

Bonfim v Pichel: Ismael Bonfim Head to Head @ $1.16

Costa v Borjas: Alessandro Costa Head To Head @ $1.75