The Warriors’ worrying slump continued with a 14-8 defeat to an under-strength Newcastle side in atrocious conditions at McDonald Jones Stadium.
The Dragons, Titans and Knights have handed Andrew Webster three straight losses for the second time in his coaching tenure – but in far less encouraging circumstances than their trio of defeats to the Storm, Roosters and Panthers in the space of 12 gruelling days last season.
The fifth time in 2024 they have failed to come away with the win as a favourite, this was another game that seemed there for the taking. But inferior performance on both sides of the ball again allowed lowly-rated opposition to snare the upset.
The Warriors were substandard but enjoyed the better of several key statistical areas: they had 54 percent possession, and led the all run metres (1,620 to 1,339), post-contact metres (546 to 465) counts, average set distance (38.57 to 31.16) and offloads (six to three) counts.
The negative play departments (penalties, errors, six-agains) finished almost even, though the Warriors did finish well behind in missed tackles (37 to 25), while kick defusal (57 percent to the Knights’ 91) was a glaring weakness in the wet.
Interestingly, this was one of only two games this season the Warriors did not lead at any stage – the other being the 22-all draw with Manly.
History looms large ahead of heavyweight assignments
The Warriors have gone into just one game in 2024 as an underdog – against Melbourne in Round 2 – which reflects their elevated status after last season’s heroics, their relatively soft draw so far…and their chronic underachievement to come away with just three wins and a draw from nine games.
This weekend, though, the Warriors are rank outsiders to get back on track against the in-form Sydney Roosters at Allianz Stadium and are certain to be similarly unfancied when they take on Penrith in Brisbane for Magic Round seven days later.
Widely anticipated losses in those games will leave the Warriors with a 3-1-7 record after 11 games – and standing on the precipice of finals oblivion.
Only six times in the Warriors’ previous 29 seasons have they won less than four of their first 11 games (not including 2000, when they won three and drew two – essentially counting as four wins): 1997 (3 wins), 1999 (3 wins), 2004 (3 wins), 2009 (3 wins, 1 draw), 2013 (3 wins) and 2020 (3 wins).
The common thread is none of those sides got anywhere playing finals footy, despite admirable midyear revivals by Matt Elliott’s 2013 outfit and Todd Payten’s nomadic 2020 combination.
Putting the Warriors’ potential plight under a harsh spotlight, the last team to make the playoffs after picking up less than eight competition points from their first 11 games was Parramatta in 2009. That year, the Eels famously went on a Jarryd Hayne-inspired run to scrape into eighth and charge into the grand final after starting 3-1-7.
Roosters crow in Warriors rivalry
After extending their Storm hoodoo and halting a lengthy slide against the Rabbitohs, the Warriors confront another losing streak against the Roosters this Sunday, having lost the last seven games between the clubs dating back to Round 10, 2018.
The Warriors’ last win over the Tricolours was in Round 3, 2018 – a memorable 30-6 boilover against the eventual premiers in Sydney despite the late withdrawal of Shaun Johnson.
Difficulty scoring points has been a hallmark of the current streak: the Warriors have twice been held to nil in their last seven games against the Roosters and have not scored more than 14 points.
That doesn’t bode well with the Warriors experiencing a major drop-off in attack and defence, and the Roosters racking up 100 points in the past two rounds.
Number crunchers
A handful of hardworking types put in solid shifts in a hard-to-watch loss at Newcastle:
- Addin Fonua-Blake (184m), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (173m) and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (160m) were the top three metre-eaters in the match, with no Knights player breaching 150 metres. CNK remains in top spot for average run metres in the NRL (265.3m), while AFB (191.4m) is eighth overall and second among forwards, and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is ninth (182.9m).
- Jackson Ford (54 tackles), Wayde Egan (50) and Tohu Harris (36) got through plenty of defence to maintain their high rankings in the NRL’s average tackles per match table. Egan (43.3) is fifth, Harris (40.9) is eighth and Ford 14th (39.9).