Evan Psarras previews all eight matchups in Round 9 of the 2024 NRL season
9:50pm, Thursday 2 May | Accor Stadium, Sydney
The Rabbitohs were on the receiving end of a Storm onslaught on ANZAC Day. The 54Latrell has one week left on his suspension and will be joined by Taane Milne who’s dangerous contact charge will have him sidelined for multiple weeks. Izaac Thompson will be his replacement with Alex Johsnton still one week away. It is all systems go for the reigning three-time premiers who came away with the points from a trip to Townsville despite being undermanned. Turuva was a late out against the Cowboys but is back on deck for the 2021 Grand Final rematch.
Head To Head:
Their two meetings last season came early in the year. The Panthers were 16-10 winners in Round 2 but the Rabbitohs bounced back with a 20-18 win in Round 8 where they were subsequently installed as equal premiership favourites. That victory ended a streak of 5 consecutive wins for the Panthers in this series but they have a long way to go with respect to evening the ledger as the Panthers have won 10 of the last 12 meetings. Defence has been the key ingredient to their success as they have held the Rabbitohs to 14.5ppg across those 12 battles. Tago has scored in 3 of his last 5 appearances against the Rabbitohs but the value lies in whoever starts on the left wing as the Rabbitohs have conceded 5 tries in the last 2 games to the opposing left winger (Coates 3 and Mulitalo 2).
Stats That Matter:
Conceding 54 points in the loss to the Storm last week means that the Rabbitohs have now conceded 34+ points in each of their last 3 games and an average of 35.5ppg so far this season. They are now 0-14 at the line in their last 14 games overall and 0-11 at the line in their last 11 home games. The Rabbitohs are 1-5 both straight up and at the line in their last 6 as the betting outsider while the Panthers have been victorious in 7 of their last 9 as a road favourite. The Over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings hosted by the Rabbitohs and there has been an average of 52 total match points in Bunnies games so far this season.
Prediction:
Rain, hail, or shine the Rabbitohs do not have the will to compete with the Panthers through the middle third of the field. Any other team bar the Panthers would have lost to the Cowboys last week a long list of injuries/suspensions is not doing the Rabbitohs any favours here. The duo of Tass and Thompson don’t provide the yardage required to come out of their own end and the shifting of Koloamatangi to prop emphasises their lack of size in the prop rotation. We have not seen the Rabbitohs effectively absorb pressure in recent weeks and that spells trouble as there is no better team than the Panthers at gaining territorial advantage. Panthers by 20+.
Bets:
Best Bet: Panthers -15.5 ($1.85)
Value Bet: Same Game Multi: Panthers To Win By 21-30, Brian To’o 2+ Tries ($12.28)
8:00pm, Friday 3 May | 4 Pines Park, Sydney
The Sea Eagles overcame a 14-6 half time deficit to get the better of the Eels last week but it came at a cost with Olakau’atu suspended for a dangerous tackle on Shaun Lane. Cherry-Evans was successful in getting his charge downgraded and will play. The Raiders looked completely lost without the kicking game of Jamal Fogarty last week and are in serious trouble. They were on the wrong end of a 40-0 scoreline against the Sharks in Canberra and must now go on the road without a growing list of injured troops that includes Fogarty, Rapana, Hosking and Horsbrough among others.
Head To Head:
In their only battle last season Tom Trbojevic scored a hat-trick in the Eagles 42-14 victory. The Eagles have won 9 of the last 13 in this series as the home team which includes a 70% win rate as the betting elect. Close games have been few and far between in this series with 4 of the last 5 meetings being decided by a 13+ margin. Only 1 of their last 7 clashes have taken place on the northern beaches and this will be the first time since Rounds 20 and 21 that they will play a second game in as many weeks at their traditional home. The points have flowed when they have faced off at this ground with the last 6 played at 4 Pines Park producing 41+ total match points.
Stats That Matter:
Statistically, there can only be one winner in this contest. The Raiders have lost their last 7 when facing top 8 teams while the Eagles have been dominant at home. They have won their last 5 home games and are 6-0 at the line in their last 6 as the host. The Eagles have averaged 29ppg in their last 4 which has translated to a 4-0 Over record in those games. The Over has also hit in 7 of their last 11 following a loss which suggests we could see another high scoring contest at 4 Pines Park. The Raiders continue to lead the NRL in possession and rank in the top 3 in completion, but all three teams (Titans, Warriors and Raiders) are currently outside the top 8.
Prediction:
We mentioned that completion rate would not be enough for the Raiders last week and the absence of Fogarty’s kicking game left a gaping hole in their attack. They were unable to gain any territorial advantage and were constantly on the back foot. They missed 64 tackles last week and must now find a way to contain an Eagles side that has made 45 linebreaks already this season – second only to the Cowboys. The suspension of Olakau’atu is not enough to even up the ledger for the Raiders to become any threat of coming away with the points. His absence will see the likes of Garrick and Saab receive more ball so look for them to combine for 2+ tries.
Bets:
Best Bet: Over 43.5 points ($1.87)
Value Bet: To Have 2+ Tries Combined – Jason Saab/Reuben Garrick ($2.50)
10:00pm, Friday 3 May | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
They were two of the most impressive winners last week but there can only be one winner here. The Roosters thumped the Dragons 60-18 in their traditional ANZAC Day battle while the Broncos backline was in scintillating form in a comfortable 34-10 win over the Tigers. Walsh and Reynolds both limped off the field with cramps but have been listed to play while the duo of Mam and Cobbo return after missing out last week. Tupou returns on the wing for the Roosters with Radley a possible late inclusion after being named on the extended bench.
Head To Head:
Their most recent meeting came under the bright lights of Las Vegas with the Roosters grinding their way to a 20-10 win. They have enjoyed recent success in this series with wins in 6 of the last 8 clashes which includes wins in each of the last three played at Suncorp Stadium. Many of those came against a weaker Broncos roster and it is worth noting that they have posted a 9-2 line record in the last 11 games at home to the Roosters. The Under is 2-0 in the last two encounters but there has been more than 40 total match points in the last 4 between them played in Brisbane.
Stats That Matter:
Few teams dominate at home as well as the Broncos. They are 6-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 6 home games which is supported by a 5-0 line record in their last 5 games overall leading into this contest. Momentum has been one of the keys to the Broncos success in the last 18 months and a 12-5 line record in their last 17 following a win reflects this. The Over has hit in 71% of those games and 11 of their last 15 overall (73%). Similarly, the Over is 3-0 in the Roosters last 3 away games, but it is worth noting that the Under has held on in 12 of the Roosters last 13 following a win. The Roosters have covered the line in 5 of their last 7 as an away underdog but have managed to win only 36% of their games as the betting outsider in the last year.
Prediction:
We are sticking with the formula of backing the Broncos to cover the line when under lights at Suncorp Stadium. Their expansive style of footy and their ability to use their speed out wide makes them extremely tough to slow down – especially when it is being supplemented by a huge home crowd. Sam Walker was spectacular against the Dragons last week but will not be afforded the same amount of time with Carrigan chasing him down. Consistency has also been a problem for Trent Robinson with the Roosters having won only 5 of their last 13 when coming off a win. The return of Tupou sees Suaalii back to the centres where he has had serious problems defensively. The Broncos right edge will run riot.
Bets:
Best Bet: Broncos -8.5 ($1.90)
Value Bet: Same Game Multi: Brisbane WIN, 51 Points or More, Stags Anytime Tryscorer, Mariner Anytime Tryscorer ($12.36)
5:00pm, Saturday 4 May | Accor Stadium, Sydney
The Tigers battled hard against the Broncos last week but a lack of execution in the opposition 20 and poor decision making proved costly. The efforts of Api Koroisau have been immense, and he has again been named despite going off early last week. The Bulldogs are fresh off the bye and the two points collected has seen them climb into the top 8 for the first time this season. They have found a winning formula with Tracey at fullback and the left-sided quarter of Burton, Kikau, Xerri and Addo-Carr forming a dangerous combination. They also receive a further boost with Jacob Preston named on an extended bench.
Head To Head:
It has been a lean couple of years for both teams, but this is one matchup that the Bulldogs has had some success in. They have won 3 of the last 4 meetings and dating further back, 7 of the last 8 clashes when installed as a home favourite. Despite being two of the worst attacking teams in the previous few seasons, the Over has hit in each of the last 3 times they have faced off. Of the last 5 battles, 4 have been decided by a double digit margin with the duo of Burton and Kiraz having scored in 2 of their last 3 clashes with the Tigers.
Stats That Matter:
They may have lost their last 4 by a double digit margin but it has not prevented the Under from holding on in all 7 Tigers games played so far this season. Their inability to convert field position into points is part of the reason, as is a commendable effort in defence for longer periods than we have become accustomed to. The Bulldogs are seeking a 6th straight success at the line and a 4th consecutive home win – signs that their long term rebuild is taking shape. The Tigers lost a 10th straight game at Campbelltown last week and face a similar fate here as they have lost their last 9 games against all opposition at Accor Stadium.
Prediction:
Rain is expected throughout the week in Sydney which will likely turn this into a battle of yardage and discipline. That will favour the Bulldogs who have run for more metres than their opposition in each of their last 5 games. That includes being +313m against the Knights, +233m against the Storm and +78m against the Roosters. The trio of Kiraz, Tracey and Xerri have taken pressure off their forwards with effort carries out of their own end and this is one of a select few matchups where they actually have a superior kicking game. The Tigers left edge defence has struggled in recent weeks. Mariner could have had a hat-trick for the Broncos last week while Turuva bagged a double for the Panthers a fortnight ago. Kiraz 2+ tries!
Bets:
Best Bet: Under 40.5 points ($1.90)
Value Bet: Same Game Multi: Bulldogs WIN, 31-40 Total Match Points, Kiraz Anytime Tryscorer ($9.46)
7:30pm, Saturday 4 May | Cbus Super, Gold Coast
The Titans winless start to the season came to an end in dramatic fashion. Despite trailing 12-0 to the Warriors in front of a sold-out crowd in Auckland, they managed to claw their way back to win 27-24. The Storm were also victorious on ANZAC Day but in a different manner as they dismantled the Rabbitohs in a 54-20. Xavier Coates scored a first half hat-trick in before going off with a hamstring issue and could miss multiple games while Asofa-Solomona could be a late withdrawal. Their depth for the upcoming Origin period has also been hit with backup half Jonah Pezet sustaining a season ending injury in Qld Cup.
Head To Head:
Wins in 9 of the last 10 meetings by the Storm in this series will come as no surprise. They have scored 34+ points in their last 4 against the Titans and have won 6 of the last 8 battles as an away favourite. They have consistently given away a big start but have struggled to cover it with the Titans being successful at the line in each of the last 5 meetings overall. The Over has hit in each of the last three meetings and in 5 of the last 7 hosted by the Titans. Cameron Munster has scored 5 tries in his last 4 against the Titans while for the Titans, Brian Kelly has crossed for a try in each of his last three appearances in this matchup.
Stats That Matter:
There needs to be an element of caution with respect to teams coming off huge wins. The Storm were relentless last week but have lost 3 of their last 5 the week after winning by a margin of 30+ points. In addition to this, they have covered the line in only 33% of matches in the last year on the back of a win. Despite a terrible recent record, the Titans have been underestimated by the market and it has seen them post a 4-0 line record in their last 4 games. They have scored 20+ points in each of those games and a repeat of that year will make it difficult for the visitors to cover the start.
Prediction:
Covering big starts against the Titans has not been a strength of the Storm. They are 0-5 at the line in their last 5 in this series and have conceded 22ppg in the last 4 in this series. They have scored 30+ themselves in each game and it makes for an enthralling contest. The Titans have found their feet in recent weeks and have steadied the ship after a horrific start to the season. Anyone who thinks the Storm will roll through the Titans here needs to think again. Not only will the Titans cover the start, but they are also a chance of posting an outright win.
Bets:
Best Bet: Titans +14.5 ($1.90)
Value Bet: Same Game Multi: Over 45.5, Brian Kelly Anytime Tryscorer, Tyran Wishart Anytime Tryscorer ($10.43)
9:35pm, Saturday 4 May | Qld Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
An 18-14 loss as a home favourite to the Knights last week means that the Dolphins have now won only 2 of their last 8 following a win. Trai Fuller has been excellent in the absence of Tabuai-Fidow, but they will be sweating the return of multiple players as the injury crisis continues for Wayne Bennett. Similarly, the Cowboys 26-20 at the hands of the Panthers was compounded by an injury to Tom Chester which will see Vailea come into the side as Taulagi is still one week away from his return.
Head To Head:
The list of Queensland derbies grew significantly following the introduction of the Dolphins last season and this derby has not lacked entertainment. There have been 44+ total match points in each of their three battles to date with the away team surprisingly going 3-0 both straight up and at the line. Kyle Feldt has scored in each of the three battles to date (4 tries in total) while Isaako has scored 5 tries for the Dolphins which includes a hat-trick in the corresponding fixture last year.
Stats That Matter:
Victories in 7 of their last 10 home games including 6 of their last 7 as a home favourite suggests the Cowboys will be hard to beat. The Dolphins have managed to win only 25% of games as the betting underdog in the last 12 months but will be hoping to be aided by a Cowboys side that has made the 4th most errors of any team – leaving them down in 15th with respect to completion rate. The outsider is 5-0 at the line in the last 5 matches played at Qld Country Bank Stadium and it is no secret that the Cowboys have conceded more points than every other team bar the Rabbitohs. The Over is 6-0 in the Cowboys last 6 games and has hit in 70% of their home games in the last year.
Prediction:
The Cowboys free-flowing attack has been countered by some paper-thin defence so far in 2024. They have averaged 25.4ppg but have allowed more than 27ppg. They have conceded 20+ points in each of their last 5 games at Qld Country Bank Stadium and a 6-0 Over record in their last 6 games overall makes it unlikely that this trend will change. They have conceded more tries (13) in the middle third than any other team in the NRL. The list of non-outside backs to score against them in recent weeks includes forwards (Martin, Hazelton, Ofahengaue and Fermor), halves (Mam, Trindall, Asi and Flanagan) and hookers (Walters and Lussick). Marshall-King and Plath could feature for the visitors.
Bets:
Best Bet: Over 48.5 points ($1.90)
Value Bet: Same Game Multi: Feldt Anytime Tryscorer, Plath Anytime Tryscorer, Marshall-King Anytime Tryscorer ($48.13)
4:00pm, Sunday 5 May | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
There is only one word to describe the Warriors loss to the Titans last week, and that is unacceptable! They relinquished a 12-0 lead in front of a sell-out crowd and now find themselves in 12th place on the ladder. The likes of Capewell, Afoa, Lussick and Harris-Tavita remain sidelined meaning the current crop will have to dig even deeper in the coming weeks. The Knights showed they are not a one man band with Ponga’s replacement David Armstrong making an impressive debut. Hetherington returns from suspension, but the home side could be without Jacob Saifiti who could be a late out despite being named in the starting side.
Head To Head:
Newcastle carried a tonne of momentum into the finals series last year but it was halted by the Warriors who outclassed them in the qualifying final 40-10. The Warriors backed that up with a 20-12 home win less than a month ago in Round 4 but were less than convincing. They have split the last 12 meetings with the home side claiming victory in 7 of the last 9 clashes. The Knights are 3-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 as the host with the Warriors winning only 2 of the last 5 as a road favourite in this matchup. The Under has held on in 7 of the last 9 meetings overall.
Stats That Matter:
The Warriors have held the lead in all but one of their 8 games played so far this season but have only managed to win three of those fixtures. They are 1-5 at the line in their last 6 games and have not been able to capitalise on possession and set completion rate (top 4 in both categories). The Knights have won 10 of their last 13 home games which includes victory in their last two as a home underdog. A streak of wins late last year has helped the Knights to a 9-5 record in their last 14 following a win but the visitors will be dangerous in this spot. The Warriors have won 6 of their last 7 as a road favourite and have successfully covered the line in all but two of those games.
Prediction:
With their best attacking weapon out for an extended period it was not hard to identify the game plan of Adam O’Brien last week. They completed 88% of sets and relied on their outside backs to drive them up the field. The quartet of Best, Tuala, Marzhew and Armstrong were their four leading run getters, and we will almost definitely see a repeat of that as the Warriors are obsessed with going through the middle before kicking to the corners and making teams work their way out. A similar mentality from both teams will result in a low scoring contest with the few tries that are scored to be by the players out wide.
Bets:
Best Bet: Under 39.5 points ($1.90)
Value Bet (SGM): Warriors Under 21.5 points, Greg Marzhew Anytime Tryscorer ($4.13)
6:05pm, Sunday 5 May | PointsBet Stadium, Sydney
We cap off Round 9 with the local derby between the Sharks and Dragons. It was a forgettable ANZAC Day for the Dragons who were played off the park in a 60-18 loss to the Dragons while the Sharks were flawless in a 40-0 win over the Raiders. The big story here is Dragons coach Shane Flanagan taking on the team that he won the Grand Final with in 2016 but he will be without Moses Suli who was concussed in the first tackle of the game. The Sharks have the luxury of naming an unchanged side after Daniel Atkinson impressed as Trindall’s replacement last week.
Head To Head:
It may be one of the fiercest rivalries in the NRL, but it has been far from competitive in recent years with the Sharks having won the last 7 clashes. The Sharks had a feeding frenzy in their two meetings last season winning 40-8 and 52-16! Mulitalo bagged a double in each of those games and was supported by three tries a piece from Nikora and Ramien. The Under is 8-3 in the last 11 encounters hosted by the Sharks with the Dragons having averaged only 13.2ppg in the last 5 meetings overall.
Stats That Matter:
In the last two seasons, the Sharks have done a stellar job winning the games they are supposed to. They have won 12 of their last 16 as the betting elect but more impressively, have been successful at covering the start in 75% of those games. They are 6-0 at the line in their last 6 home games and have a 67% success rate at the line in games played on the back of a win in the last year. The Dragons loss to the Roosters last week means that they have won only 1 of their last 7 following a win but they have managed to cover the line in 11 of their last 17 following a loss which indicates that they could bounce back here. That said, they have managed to win only 2 of their last 10 as an away underdog.
Prediction:
We have seen the Dragons cause multiple upsets so far this season but their wins over the Warriors and Sea Eagles did come at home. Their two road victories came against the Titans and Tigers who are not at the same level as the Sharks who currently occupy top spot on the ladder. The Sharks have tremendous running power coming out of their own end with Iro locking down the spot at left centre ahead of Talakai. Ramien, Mulitalo, Katoa and Iro all averaged 4+ tackle breaks per game which has allowed Hynes to carve teams up on the back of momentum. The Dragons missed 50 tackles last week, but we are unlikely to see a repeat in what will be difficult conditions. The Under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings at PointsBet Stadium and is the best option.
Bets:
Best Bet: Under 44.5 points ($1.96)
Value Bet: Same Game Multi: Dragons +13.5, 31-40 Total Match Points, Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer ($11.52)