Evan Psarras previews every game in Round 13 of the 2024 NRL Premiership.
9:50pm, Thursday 30th May | CommBank Stadium, Sydney
To say that the Sharks were caught off guard last week would be an understatement as the Panthers picked them apart in a 42-0 drubbing. The Sharks remain top despite the loss, but they will likely surrender their spot at the summit if they fail to bounce back here. The Eels defence was non-existent in a 42-26 loss to the Rabbitohs but there is huge news for the home side with Moses and Gutherson names to return. Hopgood is out on Origin duty and the same applies to the Sharks duo of Nicho Hynes and Cameron McIness.
Head To Head:
They have been separated by a total of 6 points across their last two meetings with the Sharks coming away with the points in two nail-biters. Dating further back, the Sharks have won 8 of the last 11 encounters with 4 of their most recent 5 wins coming by a 1-12 margin. The Sharks have lost 2 of their last 3 when installed as an away favourite against the Eels but we could see the Eels firm approaching kick-off. With respect to tryscorers, Moses has scored in his last two against the Sharks with Sivo scoring a double in their most recent clash. Kennedy had a hat-trick in that match while Mulitalo has crossed for 4 tries across the last 4 clashes.
Stats That Matter:
The Sharks are 3-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 away games but don’t have the greatest record following a loss having won 5 of their last 8 in the last year when coming off a defeat. It has been a month to forget for the home side as they have lost their last 5 and failed to cover the line in all 5 of those games. The biggest concern for the Eels is their defence as they have allowed 39.2ppg during their 5 game losing streak which has contributed to the Over hitting in 6 of their last 7 games. Favouritism will be a factor as the Eels have won 5 of their last 7 as a home favourite but only 2 of their last 12 as the betting underdog.
Prediction:
Last week was a huge reality check for the Shark and it means their wins in the previous fortnight (Roosters and Storm) now count for very little. They failed to score a single point and without Hynes in the second half lacked direction and cohesion. It is a case of no more excuses for the Eels this week as they get Moses and Gutherson back. Moses will give them the kicking game they have been starving for which will allow them to build some pressure by forcing the Sharks to come out of their own end. The Sharks had no ball whatsoever in the second half and despite defending their line for the bulk of the second stanza, they managed to allow only 14 points in that period. Defence will be a priority after that loss and a tight game will help the Eels.
Best Bet: Eels WIN ($1.78)
Same Game Multi: Tri Bet 1-12 – Either Team Under 12.5, Sivo Anytime Tryscorer, Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer ($4.58)
10:00pm, Friday 31st May | McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
The Bulldogs were under pressure after trailing 12-6 at half time to the Dragons but they responded by scoring 38 unanswered points. They will look to build on that momentum but will have to do it without three of their most important players – Burton (Origin), Crichton (Origin) and Kikau (injury). Meanwhile, the Knights are riding a 4-game win streak and with the two points courtesy of last week’s bye, find themselves in the top 8. Mapapalangi replaces the injured Bradman Best in the centres while the form of duo of Lucas and Pearce-Paul has been rewarded with starting roles forcing Frizell to come off the bench.
Head To Head:
The H2H reads 5-2 in the Knights favour across the last 7 meetings but it is the Bulldogs that won their only clash last season 36-12. The biggest trend in this series is a lack of points. The Under is 7-3 in the last 10 hosted by the Knights with an average of 38.8 total match points in their last 5 played at McDonald Jones Stadium. There is however an interesting statistic surrounding this venue as the Over is 10-0 in the Knights last 10 Friday night games played at their home ground. Both sides have come a long way in the last 18-24 months so we cannot give extensive wait to many results prior to that period.
Stats That Matter:
There is nothing more important than winning games but the ability to build on victories is just as important. The Bulldogs have not succeeded in this department and have lost 6 of their last 7 following a win in the last year. They have also struggled in games that they are not favoured to win – as reflected by their 1-11 record in their last 12 as an away underdog. The Knights have turned McDonald Jones Stadium into a fortress with wins in 9 of their last 12 at the ground including a 67% success rate at the line. They will be aware that the Bulldogs have covered the line in their last 4 as the outsider which makes this a very interesting clash.
Prediction:
Cannot have the Bulldogs in this one for several reasons. They have a terrible record following a win and are missing three of their most important players. Their left edge is the biggest attacking weapon and the absence of Burton and Kikau leaves them relying on Salmon and former Knight Kurt Mann to do the damage. Moreover, Crichton has been a key element to their defensive structure and is irreplaceable. Armstrong has been enormous at the back for the Knights and their back row trio of Lucas, Pearce-Paul and Elliot are far more effective when compared to their counterparts. Knights!
Best Bet: Knights -4.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Knights 1-12, Under 43.5 points, David Armstrong Anytime Tryscorer ($11.10)
7:30pm, Saturday 1st June | BlueBet Stadium, Sydney
The reigning premiers showed that their loss to the Warriors was by no means a sign that they were ready to give up their position as the team to beat. They dismantled the Sharks 42-0 in a relentless display of focus and commitment. They will be missing more than a handful of players for this one including Cleary, Yeo, Luai, To’o, Edwards and Martin but have shown that they can win without their best. The Dragons lose Hunt, Su’a and Lomax to Origin with Jack Bird also sidelined.
Head To Head:
Wins in the last 6 meetings for the Panthers highlights their dominance in this matchup. They have won 6 of the last 7 clashes played at BlueBet Stadium and have held the Dragons to an average of 12.9ppg across those matches. As is expected, they have given away big starts in most of their recent battles but are 0-4 at the line in the last 4 and have covered the line in only 3 of the last 10 as a home favourite.
Stats That Matter:
A lack of resilience saw the Dragons concede 38 unanswered points in the second half against the Bulldogs last week and they cannot afford a repeat here. The Panthers just held the table-topping Sharks to nil and have generally relied on their defence to win them games during the Origin period. The Dragons will likely do the same as the Under has held on in 10 of their last 16 games following a loss. They have covered the line in 69% of those games which makes them an attractive proposition with the big start.
Prediction:
The Panthers took their foot off the pedal in the second half last week and it is a testament to their depth that they can send out a pack that includes Fisher-Harris, Leota, Sorensen, Henry and Lindsay Smith despite missing key players to Origin. Their focus will be to play through the middle and that will help keep this contest close as it is out wide where the Dragons were carved up last week. The Panthers lost to the Cowboys in the equivalent round last year so don’t rule out a Dragons upset.
Best Bet: Under 45.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Dragons 1-12, 31-40 points, Sione Finau Anytime Tryscorer ($34.87)
9:35pm, Saturday 1st June | Kayo Stadium, Brisbane
The Dolphins failed to capitalise on a golden opportunity last week after the Warriors had a long list of key players ruled out. The 24-20 loss brought their 3-game win streak to an end, but they return to Kayo Stadium where they have won 3 of their last 4. Tabuai-Fidow and Kaufusi are the only two missing due to Origin with the Raiders only absentee in that department being Hudson Young. The Raiders were no match for the Roosters in Round 12 but the return of Josh Papali’i will help bolster their pack.
Head To Head:
Home ground advantage was pivotal in their two clashes last season. The Dolphins overcame a 12-0 first half deficit in the corresponding fixture in Round 2 last year with Tabuai-Fidow scoring a double. The Raiders would bounce back in Round 9 in a 31-30 golden point thriller in their home game which was played at McDonalds Park in Wagga Wagga. Aitken, Lemuelu and Jesse Bromwich were among the tryscorers for the Dolphins while for the Raiders, Jordan Rapana is the only tryscorer from that game that will be taking the field for them here.
Stats That Matter:
The Raiders were installed as favourites for both battles last season but are outsiders this time around. They have won only 4 of their last 14 as the underdog which includes a 30% win rate as an away outsider in the last year. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 2-1 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 as a home favourite. They have won 3 of their last 4 played at Kayo Stadium which includes a 20-14 win over the Raiders. The Under is 4-0 in their last 4 games at this ground with an average of 44 total match points in their last 5 games leading into this one.
Prediction:
Don’t be fooled into thinking that the Raiders cannot win this match. They have scored upset wins over the Eagles and Bulldogs in recent weeks and have done so on the back of stoic defence and hard running through the middle. The quarter of Tapine, Papali’i, Whitehead and Smithies will hold their own through the middle, but they admittedly lack polish out wide (Kris and Cotric the biggest culprits). Trai Fuller has shown that he can contribute in a big way at fullback while Farnworth is arguably coming off his best game of the year after running for 198m and having 13 tackle busts. Cannot look past the Dolphins 4-0 Under record in games at Kayo Stadium and am surprised this total has been set closer to the 50-point mark.
Best Bet: Under 49.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Tri Bet 1-12 Either Team Under 12.5, 31-40 Total Points, Fuller Anytime Tryscorer ($18.67)
7:30pm, Saturday 1st June | BlueBet Stadium, Sydney
We cap off the bye round with the in-form Roosters hosting a Cowboys side that is seeking a third consecutive win. The big news for the Roosters was the omission of Tedesco from the NSW Blues side which has resulted in them being installed as overwhelming favourites. Crichton, Collins, Sua’ali’i and Leniu have been selected for Origin, but the Roosters have plenty of cover with Wong and Tupouniua coming onto the bench. The Cowboys have been decimated with Holmes, Cotter, Robson, Dearden, Taulagi and Nanai all missing through State of Origin.
Head To Head:
Their only meeting last season came in Magic Round with the Cowboys coming away with a 20-6 win in what was effectively a home game for the Roosters. This will be only their second meeting in Sydney since 2019! The Roosters have won 6 of the last 7 clashes that have taken place in the Harbour City so we must proceed with caution when looking at their 2-6 line record in the last 8 as a home favourite in this matchup as many of those games have been played at a neutral venue.
Stats That Matter:
Attack has been the name of the game for the Roosters. The Over is 5-0 in their last 5 games in a stretch where they have averaged 42.4ppg. They will likely run riot here as the Cowboys have struggled with their defence through the opening twelve rounds. Only the Eels and Rabbitohs have allowed more points than them with the Queenslanders allowing 26.3ppg thus far. The Cowboys have failed to cover the line in their last 5 away games and will be relying very heavily on the duo of Drinkwater and Townsend to steer them around the park.
Prediction:
Tedesco will be a man on a mission after missing out on Origin selection. The Roosters depth is also on full display here with a starting forward pack that includes May, Radley, Butcher and Waerea-Hargreaves. They may be giving away a huge start here but one of the keys to covering it will be goal-kicking. Sam Walker has been outstanding with the boot having made 40 of 45 attempts (88.9%). Taking the Roosters here will the trio of Tedesco, Manu and Young to combine for 4+ tries minimum.
Best Bet: Roosters -19.5 ($1.90)
Value Bet: To Have 4+ Tries Combined (Trios) – Young/Tedesco/Manu ($3.50)