NRL Tips & Preview | Round 12

9:50pm, Thursday 23rd May | Accor Stadium, Sydney
The Bulldogs failed to capitalise on their numerical advantage last week and went down to the Raiders despite having a two player advantage at one stage and leading by 8 points early in the second half. Kikau had a game to forget after making several errors in the attacking zone and has been named despite suffering a leg injury following a hip drop. Salmon returns after missing out last week pushing Preston back to the bench, but they could swap roles on game day. For the Dragons, Shane Flanagan has the luxury of naming a full strength side that includes Luciano Leilua on the interchange.

Head To Head:
They have split the last 6 meetings (3-3) with the Dragons winning 5 of the 8 clashes played from 2019 onwards. In their only encounter last season, a very different Bulldogs side came away with a narrow 18-16 win at WIN Stadium. Only 3 of their 13 players named to start this week (Burton, Mahoney and Preston) started that game which doesn’t give us much to go on. What we do know is that the Bulldogs have dominated this series at this venue having won 7 of the last 9 between them played at Accor Stadium. Most notably, the Bulldogs have won their last 8 against the Dragons when installed as the betting favourite.

Stats That Matter:
A win over the Rabbitohs prior to the bye means the Dragons are yet to lose more than two consecutive games this season but they have won only 1 of their last 7 following a win and have covered the line only twice in those games. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 4-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 4 home games. Both teams have recorded a 7-3 Under record in their 10 games played so far this season and their last 6 meetings at this venue have produced an average of 33.8 total match points. The Under is 10-6 in Dragons games following a loss in the last year with 8 of their last 11 away games also falling short of the set match total.

Prediction:
When the game was there to be won for the Bulldogs last week Matt Burton was non-existent. He will need to stand up in big moments if the Bulldogs are to play finals footy this season as Hutchinson is not the man to create. In contrast, Ben Hunt leads the NRL in try assists with 15 with Lomax and Sloan leading the way with 7 tries a piece. Burton is the only Bulldog with more than 4 tries so far this year which highlights the Bulldogs inability to get their wide players involved as much as required in the attacking areas. The Dragons have scored 67% of their tries down the right third so far but that could change this week as the Bulldogs right side is the one that has been vulnerable. The Unders shapes as the best bet with the Dragons a good chance of causing an upset.

Best Bet: Under 41.5 points ($1.96)
Value Bet: Anytime Tryscorer/Margin Double – Ravalawa/Dragons 1-12 ($5.80)

8:00pm, Friday 24th May | Qld Country Bank Stadium, Townsville
The Tigers held their opposition to 4 or fewer tries for a third consecutive game but it was not enough to prevent them from suffering a 7th straight loss. Injuries continue to plague them with To’a and Tupou joining the likes of Bateman and Doueihi on the sidelines but there can be no excuse for suspensions. Sezer has several weeks left with the duo of Olam and Naden to miss this one through suspension forcing Benji Marshall to go with Declan Casey and Josh Feledy. The Cowboys ended a 5-game losing streak with a 28-22 win over the Bunnies but were less than convincing. An unchanged line-up will have the chance of building on that performance here.

Head To Head:
Almost two decades have passed since they faced off in the 2005 Grand Final with no joy to speak of for the Tigers since. The H2H reads 4-4 across their last 8 meetings but the outcome of their two clashes last year can only be described as unusual. In round 12, the Tigers scored 50+ points for the first time since 2015 as they thumped the Cowboys 66-18. Just 6 weeks later in Round 18 the Cowboys would get their revenge as they embarrassed the Tigers 74-0 at Qld Country Bank Stadium. There have been 48+ total match points in 6 of the last 7 meetings with the Over hitting in 5 of the last 7 clashes between them.

Stats That Matter:
Their recent history suggests a high scoring contest but the Tigers form in 2024 suggests otherwise. The Under is 10-0 in Tigers games this season and last week was yet another example of their game falling at least two tries shy of the set total. The Under is 15-4 in Tigers games following a loss in the last year with an average of 37.1 total match points in their games this year. Defensively they continue to show resolve and have managed to hold their opposition to an average of 22.6ppg – significantly less than the 26.1ppg the Cowboys have allowed. The Cowboys are 0-6 at the line in their last 6 as the betting favourite but trusting the Tigers is difficult as they have failed to cover the line in their last 7 leading into this one.

Prediction:
The bookies continue to put up huge totals in matches involving the Tigers even though they have averaged 11.3ppg in their last 6. Without some direction/kicking from Aiden Sezer and several of their strike players out wide (Olam and Naden) missing, it is hard to see that changing. Moreover, they do deserve some credit for their defence as they have conceded more than 26 points in only 1 of their last 9. Sticking with the Unders and Braidon Burns to find the try line yet again after scoring a double last week on what is usually Kyle Feldt’s right wing.

Best Bet: Under 48.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Cowboys 1-12, Braidon Burns Anytime Tryscorer, 31-40 total match points ($22.19)

10:00pm, Friday 24th May | 4 Pines Park, Sydney
The Eagles put up a huge fight against the Broncos, but a late Jock Madden field goal would condemn them to a third straight loss. The Storm on the other hand avoided back-to-back losses with an impressive 48-16 win over the Eels but it would come at a huge cost with Munster ruled out for an extended period. Luckily for them Jahrome Hughes returns and Sua Fa’alogo has slotted into the fullback role nicely. In positive news, Ryan Papenhuyzen is as little as 2-3 weeks away from being available following initial fears that he could be out for the season.

Head To Head:
In the last 5+ years the Storm have enjoyed success in this series with victory in 7 of the last 9 meetings. The Eagles have started to fight back and have won 2 of the last 3. Both of those wins have been at 4 Pines Park with the home team now having won the last 5 clashes. They have been involved in some very tight battles with 8 of the last 12 meetings producing no more than 36 total match points. Moreover, there has been an average of 36.6 total match points in their last 5 games played on the northern beaches.

Stats That Matter:
With injuries to key spine players the Storm have opened as only slight favourites despite their big win over the Eels. They have taken the points in 5 of their last 7 as an away favourite but have underperformed with respect to betting markets having covered the start in only 4 of their last 12 road games. In comparison, the Eagles have been undervalued by the oddsmakers in home games and have posted an 8-3 line record in their last 11 home games. More specifically, they have covered the line in 5 of their last 6 as a home underdog. There is further support for a play on the Eagles as the Storm are 5-13 at the line in games after a win in the last year.

Prediction:
One cannot question the commitment of the Storm and it was on full display last week as they lifted for the second half following the injury sustained by Cameron Munster. We have come to learn that you have to beat the Storm, but the signs were there last week that the Eagles are up for the fight. They have already claimed the scalps of the Panthers and Roosters at 4 Pines Park this season so don’t be surprised when they add a weakened Storm side to that list. Tommy Talau has scored in 3 of his last 4 for the Eagles and is the top pick with respect to tryscorer markets.

Best Bet: Sea Eagles +3.5 ($1.96)
Same Game Multi: Sea Eagles +7.5, Talau Anytime Tryscorer, Under 43.5 points ($8.03)

5:00pm, Saturday 25th May | GIO Stadium, Canberra
The Roosters were able to score 30+ points for a fourth consecutive game but their bubble was burst by the Shark who outgunned them 38-30. Joey Manu returns after missing out through injury last week, but the Roosters cannot afford to take the Raiders lightly. The ‘Green Machine’ are coming off a second straight win despite opening as the outsider and being forced to come from behind on both occasions. Their stocks have taken a hit with Papalii earning himself a week suspension for a hip drop and with no sign of Corey Horsbrough, Peter Hola has been added to the bench.

Head To Head:
Grit and determination have been the theme for the Raiders, but it should not come as a surprise as it has been a common theme under Ricky Stuart. Last year they did the double over the Roosters beginning with a 22-16 victory in Round 13. They were aided by the absence of the Roosters Origin players but proved it was no fluke when they backed it up with a 20-18 win at Allianz Stadium in Round 17. The H2H reads 7-7 in their last 14 clashes with the Raiders having won 3 of their last 5 as a home underdog in this series.

Stats That Matter:
Points has been the main driver of the Roosters success this season. They have scored more points than any other team in the NRL this season with an average of 29.6ppg. The Over is 4-0 in their last 4, 5-0 in their last 5 away games and 8-3 in their last 11 following a loss. In their last 11 games following a loss, the Roosters have won and covered the line in all but three of those games. For the Raiders, both teams have scored 20+ points in their last 2 games and they have now conceded 20+ points in their last 5 games.

Prediction:
Despite losing their key playmaker (Fogarty) the Raiders never say die attitude has seen them win multiple games after trailing by a significant margin. The Roosters attack continues to sizzle, but we must accept that the Raiders will find a way to go toe-to-toe with them. It is what they have done all season long and have averaged 23.6ppg at home this season. The Over has been hitting at an incredible rate in Roosters matches this season and part of it has been because they have played from behind. They have scored the opening try in only 27.3% of games this season compared to 60% for the Raiders. Timoko scored in both encounters last season so look for him to be involved in the home side’s set plays.

Best Bet: Over 43.5 games ($1.85)
Value Bet: Raiders Over 15.5 points, Timoko Anytime Tryscorer, Young Anytime Tryscorer ($7.25)

7:30pm, Saturday 25th May | PointsBet Stadium, Sydney
The Sharks dream run continued last week as they maintained their spot at the top of the NRL ladder with an entertaining 38-30 win over the Roosters. A 7th consecutive win and superior points differential means they will stay there regardless of the result against the Panthers, but a win here will see their odds in the premiership market shorten significantly. The Panthers have been installed as outsiders following their loss to the Warriors last week and will be without Taylan May for the foreseeable future after he was a late withdrawal last week. Craig Fitzgibbon has the luxury of naming an unchanged side.

Head To Head:
A 6-1 record in the last 7 meetings highlights the Panthers dominance in this series with their 6 victories in that period coming by an average winning margin of 23.3 points. The Sharks have rarely opened as favourites in this matchup in recent years but have won 6 of their last 7 as a home favourite against the Panthers. The Under is 3-0 in their last 3 encounters but it is the Over which has hit in 6 of the last 8 hosted by the Sharks. The duo of Tago and Luai has scored a try in each of their last two appearances against the Sharks.

Stats That Matter:
Home dominance has been the key to the Sharks consistency in recent years. They have won 9 of their last 12 home games played in the last 12 months which includes victory in their last 5. Of greater interest to us is their 8-0 line record in their last 8 home games. Not only have the Sharks won their last 7 games but they have also covered the line in each of those games. The Panthers should not be discounted no matter who they send out on the field as they have won and covered the line in their last 4 games following a loss. The Over is 4-0 in their last 4 away games, but it will be all about containing the Sharks in this one.

Prediction:
Following wins over the Storm and Roosters, the Sharks have a huge opportunity to solidify themselves as genuine title contenders. Continuity is one of their biggest assets. They have had very few changes to their squad in the last 24 months and this year have avoided major injuries to key personnel. We know that the Panthers will come out with serious intent here following a surprise loss to the Warriors but matching the Sharks scoring prowess without Nathan Cleary will not be easy. If the Shark can take an early lead as they did last week, it will create an open contest which will suit them nicely. The Over is 4-0 in the Sharks last 4 night matches and that trend will continue. Another Hynes masterclass will earn him the halfback spot for the NSW Blues.

Best Bet: Over 40.5 points ($1.90)
Value Bet: To Have 4+ Tries Combined (Trios) Mulitalo/Iro/Tago 3+ Tries ($15.00)

9:35pm, Saturday 25th May | Accor Stadium, Sydney
The Rabbitohs and Eels were runners-up in 2021 and 2022 respectively but have failed to live up to the hype since. A fortnight ago, the Bunnies parted ways with Jason Demetriou and just days ago the Eels sacked Brad Arthur following an embarrassing loss to the Storm. The Rabbitohs remain at the bottom of the NRL ladder following a 6th straight loss and it has prompted a reshuffle with Wighton to join Cody Walker in the halves. No major changes from interim Eels coach Trent Barrett but that may not last long if they fail to end what is currently a 5-game losing streak.

Head To Head:
With wins in 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series, the Rabbitohs will fancy their chances despite being installed as the underdog. The Eels won the only meeting last season 36-16 with the duo of Alex Johnston and Bailey Simonsson scoring doubles for their respective teams. A 5-2 line record in their last 7 as the away team in this matchup is a positive sign for the Eels with the Over hitting in each of the last 4 clashes hosted by the Rabbitohs.

Stats That Matter:
Statistically, you don’t want to be on either side in this one. The Eels are 0-4 both straight up and at the line in their last 4 away games and have covered the line in only 3 of their last 11 games following a loss. Similarly, the Rabbitohs have lost 10 of their last 12 home games with a disgraceful 1-11 line record in those games. They have lost their last 4 as a home underdog and been successful at the line in only one of those fixtures. The Over is 7-0 in the Eels last 7 away games and has hit in 73% of games following a loss in the last 12 months. The Rabbitohs defence has been non-existent in 2024. They have allowed 34.8ppg so far this season and 28 or more in each of their last 6 games – all losses.

Prediction:
This one could go either way, but one thing is for certain – the points will flow at a rate of knots. The Rabbitohs have been unable to defend their line when placed under any sort of pressure while the Eels have simply given up multiple times in recent weeks. The Dolphins scored 40 unanswered points against them in 25 minutes (Round 7) and last week the Storm scored 5 unanswered tries in less than half an hour despite the Storm losing Munster to injury. Overs!

Best Bet: Over 47.5 points ($1.90)
Value Bet: To Have 3+ Combined Tries (Duos) – Alex Johnston/Simonsson ($4.50)

4:00pm, Sunday 26th May | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
After jumping out to a 12-0 lead inside 15 minutes it looked as though the Broncos would roll right through the Eagles in front of a sellout crowd. It was not the case as the Broncos needed a Madden field goal in the dying minutes to close out a 13-12 win. In contrast, the Titans were unable to hold onto their lead and blew what was a 24-10 half time lead. Reece Walsh and Billy Walters return for the home side, but they will be without Kitoni Staggs who is replaced by Josiah Karapani. Things continue to go from bad to worse for the Titans with Jolliffe the latest injury victim (pec). Randall and Weaver have been listed as the halves pairing with Foran a possible late inclusion after being named on the extended bench. Campbell, Boys, Brimson and Sami are again unavailable due to injury.

Head To Head:
Their respective home stadiums are an hour’s drive apart and there is no love lost between these Queensland rivals. They are always scheduled to meet twice a year in the regular season and last season was no exception. The Broncos posted a commanding 43-26 win in Round 7, but the Titans would bounce back with a gritty 18-12 win at Suncorp Stadium. Ezra Mam scored a try in both games and will likely continue that trend if we get a high scoring contest. The Broncos have won 4 of the last 5 meetings and 10 of the last 14 clashes when installed as a home favourite. The Over has hit in 7 of the last 11 hosted by the Broncos with 3 of their last 5 encounters producing 64+ total match points.

Stats That Matter:
Continuing with the totals, the Over has hit in 5 of the Broncos last 7 games played at Suncorp Stadium and 13 of their last 18 (72%) when coming off a win. They also have a 67% success rate at the line in those games, but we must not discount what the Titans have accomplished in recent weeks. They may only have 2 wins on the board in 2024 and a 2-7 record in their last 9 away games doesn’t look pretty but there is a ‘but’. The Titans are 7-0 at the line in their last 7 games and have posted a 6-3 line record in their last 9 as a road underdog. They continue to lead the NRL in set completion (83%) and have made the fewest errors while the Broncos have made the most.

Prediction:
This game has Reece Walsh and Ezra Mam written all over it. The Titans have been extremely tough in the last month despite being short-handed but they are running out of numbers. Jolliffe is a big loss as he stepped up in a major way once Tino was ruled out for the season. Their game plan will be to complete their sets and defend hard but this is a rare day game for the Broncos and that will favour them with respect to playing at a fast tempo and spreading the ball. The Titans have conceded an alarming amount of tries though the middle and right defensive thirds which makes Ezra Mam and Corey Oates the pick of the tryscorer bets. If the Titans are to cover the line for an 8th straight game, they will need to score 20+ points.

Best Bet: Over 47.5 points ($1.90)
Value Bet: Oates Anytime Tryscorer, Ezra Mam Anytime Tryscorer, Mariner Anytime Tryscorer ($6.30)

6:05pm, Sunday 26th May | Go Media Stadium, Auckland
The Dolphins solidified their place in the top 4 with a 24-12 win over the Dolphins but the story of ‘Magic Round’ was the Warriors win over the defending premiers. Despite an injury list that includes Shaun Johnson, RTS, Metcalf and Capewell, the newly formed halves pairing of Temaire Martin and Nicol-Klokstad put together a masterpiece for the ages. They will be further tested this week with Wayde Egan the latest casualty while the Dolphins get an additional boost with Max Plath back on deck.

Head To Head:
Home ground was the determining factor in their two battles last season. The Warriors ran the Dolphins off the field in the corresponding fixture in Round 7 winning 30-8. Shaun Johnson and DWZ both scored doubles in that match with Isaako on the scoresheet for the visitors. The prolific tryscorer would get his name on the scoresheet at Suncorp Stadium in Round 27 as the Dolphins celebrated their final game of their inaugural season with a 34-10 victory. Notably, the Warriors played a second string line-up in that match as they opted to rest their key players for Week 1 of the finals.

Stats That Matter:
Consistency has been the Dolphins biggest issue but they have clearly improved in that department having won and covered the line in their last three games. They are also 3-0 (H2H and line) in their last 3 away games and have a 67% strike rate at the line in their last 6 games as the betting elect. The Warriors are a questionable 5-10 at the line when coming off a win in the last 12 months but were victorious in the one game that they opened as a home underdog in the last year. The Under is 9-3 in the Dolphins last 12 away games with Warriors matches this season producing an average of only 39.9 total match points. The Warriors have trailed at half time in their last 6 games but have covered the line in 5 of their last 6 when playing at home against teams sitting above them on the ladder.

Prediction:
Let’s take nothing away from the Dolphins as they have added a defensive element to their game this season. That said, it is hard to trust that ‘opened’ as a road favourite in front of a packed house at Go Media Stadium. They will be forced to play further through the middle in the absence of Wayde Egan but that is not a bad thing as CNK in the no.6 jersey is virtually another black rower. He had 15 runs for 136m last week to go with a handful of offloads/tackle break and a try assists. Temaire Martin was class after being handed the reins and we will see a similar game plan from both teams. There will be little joy for either team through the middle with the limited number of tries to be scored by outside backs.

Best Bet: Under 41.5 points ($1.98)
Value Bet: Tri Bet 1-6 Either Team Under 6.5, Isaako Anytime Tryscorer ($5.01)