Evan Psarras previews 2024’s NRL Magic Round.
8:00pm, Friday 17th May | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
We are off to Suncorp Stadium this weekend for the football feast that is ‘Magic Round’. The Raiders scored a huge upset win prior to the bye last week which could not have come at a better time. Veteran Jordan Rapana looks to make his return in the fullback position with Saulo also back. The Bulldogs were valiant in a narrow defeat against the Panthers in Round 10 and have named an unchanged 17. Cameron Ciraldo has consistently made changes on gameday so don’t be surprised if Hughes takes the field to start the game.
Head To Head:
These two kicked off Magic Round last year with the Raiders coming away with the points in a 34-30 win. Rapana and Preston scored doubles for their respective sides in what was the highest scoring game of the round. The Raiders have won 8 in a row against the Bulldogs which includes four victories by a margin of 4 or fewer points. Their two clashes last year produced 60+ total match points which could see a change to the recent trend in Bulldogs games.
Stats That Matter:
With a 7-0 line record in their last 7 games, the Bulldogs continue to be undervalued by the market. We scored ourselves a $9 winner with the Panthers 1-12/21-30 total match points double last week and the statistics support another low scoring contest. The Under is 5-0 in the Bulldogs last 5 away games and only 2 of the Raiders last 7 games played in Brisbane have produced more than 42 total match points. The Raiders have not travelled well to Suncorp Stadium in recent years and have a 2-7 line record in their last 9 games at this venue. The Bulldogs have lost their last 9 away games, but they are facing the Raiders not the Broncos.
Prediction:
The Bulldogs are holding teams to 17.2ppg this season and it is the one area where they needed to improve. Their attack is still indecisive, but they continue to turn teams away by keeping them in their own half. The Bulldogs back five (Tracey, Kiraz, Ado-Carr, Xerri and Crichton) have been outstanding and were their top 5 metre getters last week. Expect that theme to continue which will make it difficult for the Raiders to build pressure. A fit and dangerous Kikau has also unlocked Burton. The Raiders could enjoy some success attacking down their left as the Bulldogs right third has allowed more than 60% of the tries conceded so far this season.
Best Bet: Under 41.5 points ($1.96)
Same Game Multi: Bulldogs 1-12, Kris Anytime Tryscorer, Preston Anytime Tryscorer ($28.95)
10:05pm, Friday 17th May | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The Eagles have lost their last two despite being in winning positions and to make matters worse have been dealt a severe blow with Tom Trbojevic ruled out for an extended period. Jason Saab is also sidelined with the return of Olakau’atu providing some relief. The Broncos got right back in the winner’s circle with a 30-14 win over the Eels and will start firm favourites with the benefit of having an additional home game despite being listed as the away team.
Head To Head:
For the fourth straight year the Eagles take on the Broncos in the prime time Friday night slot of Magic Round. It will be the final time that this happens as an 8-year deal signed by the Eagles to take a home game to Suncorp Stadium against the Broncos comes to an end. It has been a disaster for the Eagles in the last two years with the Broncos winning 32-6 and 38-0. Selwyn Cobbo has been the star of the show having scored a hat-trick of tries in both of those games!
Stats That Matter:
This is effectively an away game for the Sea Eagles who have won only 1 of their last 5 games played outside of Sydney. In contrast, the Broncos have won 7 of their last 8 played in Queensland. The numbers for the Eagles at Suncorp are miserable. They have posted a 1-7 line record in their last 8 at the ground and have lost both halves in their last 3. The Over has hit in 7 of their last 11 following a loss and that trend is likely to continue as the Broncos have averaged 30.6ppg in their last 7 games at this stadium. Moreover, the Over has hit in 75% of Broncos games following a win in the last year.
Prediction:
In front of a sellout crowd at Suncorp Stadium the Broncos will have an enormous advantage. The Eagles have been terrible defensively over the last fortnight and have now lost their best attacking weapon in Tom Trbojevic. The Eagles are not getting enough out of their pack and will be outmatched against the duo of Haas and Carrigan. The Eagles only edge is the experience of Cherry-Evans in the halves but even he has been guilty of missing tackles and making poor decisions in the attacking zone in recent weeks. The Broncos will cover the line with ease and run up a big score.
Best Bet: Broncos -11.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Broncos WIN, Over, Cobbo Anytime Tryscorer, Mariner Anytime Tryscorerer ($6.02)
5:00pm, Saturday 18th May | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Despite having their backs against the wall, both the Titans and Knights have bounced back in recent weeks. The Knights have won three in a row without the services of Kalyn Ponga but could now be without Best, Gagai and Frizell who have all been named but are questionable. That is nothing compared to the Titans who ended last week’s game against the Cowboys with an empty bench. They hold on for an all-important two points, but their injury list now includes AJ Brimson, Sami, Foran and Smith-Shields. Jayden Campbell remains out with Randall and Verrills listed in the halves. That will change as Weaver has been named on an extended bench.
Head To Head:
There are two rules when these two teams face off – the home team wins and there is almost always 50+ total match points. The home team has won the last 12 meetings (irrespective of location) with the winning team having scored 30+ points in all but one of those games. There has been an average of 54.2 total match points across their last 5 meetings with the odds also playing a prominent role. The betting elect has won 16 of the last 23 clashes (70%) which includes the Knights winning 9 of 12 as the favourite.
Stats That Matter:
In addition to a strong record as the favourite when facing the Titans, the Knights have won their last 4 against all opposition as an away favourite. They have covered the line in 3 of those games which is accompanied by an 11-5 line record in games after a win in the last year. In contrast, the Titans have won only 1 of their last 5 following a win but they have covered the line in their last 6 games leading into this one. The Titans have managed to score 20+ points in all 6 of those fixtures regardless of who they have been missing. They will however have to contend with a stubborn Knights defence that has held its opposition to 12ppg during its 3-game win streak.
Prediction:
Des Hasler is finally starting to have an impact on the Gold Coast. They have played a tougher style of footy in recent weeks and it is largely thanks to their forward pack. The trio of Fotuaika, Fifita and Fermor all ran for 150+ metres last week with Fifita adding three tries in his last four. The Titans have made the least amount of handling errors of any team and subsequently lead the NRL in completion percentage (83%). The Knights are far from the most effective team in the attacking 20m zone as reflected by their season average of 17.2ppg. Contrary to their previous battles, the list of injuries to their respective spine players will result in a lower than expected total. As has been the case in recent weeks, we will also be sticking with the Titans at the line.
Best Bet: Under 45.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Titans +3.5, 31-40 Total Match Points, Fifita Anytime Tryscorer ($17.02)
7:30pm, Saturday 18th May | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Over the course of the last month, the Sharks and Roosters have developed into genuine title contenders. The Roosters posted a third consecutive win by a 20+ margin with a 38-18 win over the Warriors while the Sharks are coming off their best win of the season. They made it 6 in a row with a win over the Storm in Melbourne and did it without Nicho Hynes. The 2022 Dally M winner is listed to return but be wary of a potential late withdrawal as he missed a training session early in the week and Braydon Trindall is on the extended bench. Pauga replaces Manu at right centre for the Chooks.
Head To Head:
The Roosters had won 7 in a row in this series leading into last season, but the Sharks brought that to an end with a 22-12 win. The Roosters would win the one that mattered in Week 1 of the finals with Sam Walker slotting a field goal to give the tricolours a 13-12 win. This is a matchup where the location and betting odds have not been a great guide. The favourite has been victorious in only 13 of the last 25 meetings with the Roosters covering the start in only 5 of the last 15 when installed as the betting elect as they have been here. Both clashes last year went Under but slowing down the Roosters could be a tough task as they have averaged 46ppg in their last three.
Stats That Matter:
As mentioned, the Roosters attack has been on fire! The Over is 5-1 in their last 6 as a result and they have looked dangerous across the park. Angus Crichton is back to his best on the left edge with 5 tries in his last 3 and Dom Young continues to shine on the wing with 4 in his last 3. On the other side, not only have the Sharks won their last 6, but they have also covered the line in all 6 of those matches. They have also been a profitable prospect as the outsider where they have won 4 of their last 9 as the betting underdog. Moreover, they have posted an excellent 12-4 line record in the last year when coming off a win.
Prediction:
At some point we will have to start putting some respect on the Sharks name. They have been branded flat-track bullies in the last 12-18 months as they have failed to beat the better sides in the NRL. That changed last week and a repeat against an in-form Roosters outfit will give them a tonne of confidence. With very few significant changes to their roster the Sharks have great continuity – something which is not given enough weight. Their respective packs (and benches) have been outstanding and have created momentum and space for their wide men. The depth of their benches also ensures a high tempo contest for 80 minutes which will lead to a steady flow of points. Momentum will play a big part in this one so we will stick with the total. Overs!
Best Bet: Over 41.5 points ($1.85)
Same Game Multi: Sharks Over 17.5 points, Roosters Over, 21.5 points, Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer, Crichton Anytime Tryscorer ($12.59)
9:45pm, Saturday 18th May | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The return of Latrell Mitchell was not enough to change the fortunes of the Rabbitohs who have now lost five in a row by 12+ points. They remain glued at the bottom of the ladder and the Cowboys are sliding towards them after they also suffered a 5th straight defeat. Close games have been their achilles heel with four of those defeats coming by 7 of fewer points. Taulagi returns for the Cowboys at the expense of Valemei but the big news is with the Bunnies as Alex Johnston is back to form one of the most dangerous left sides in the competition.
Head To Head:
In their one and only meeting last season, the Cowboys posted a commanding 31-6 win in a match where Valentine Holmes scored a double. That victory ended what was a 7-game win streak for the Rabbitohs in this series and it is worth noting that the Sydney side has won the last 5 between them played in Queensland. That said, there are numerous concerning statistics for the Rabbitohs. They have won only 2 of their last 8 against the Cowboys when installed as the outsider while the Cowboys have covered the line in 5 of the last 6 clashes as the betting elect. The Under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings but the four previous battles to that all produced 48+ total match points.
Stats That Matter:
It doesn’t matter which angle you look at things from, the Bunnies have been the worst side in the NRL. They have lost their last 9 night matches, lost both halves in each of their last 5 games and are 0-16 at the line in their last 16 games! They have the worst defence in the competition this season with 35.6ppg allowed and have scored fewer points than every team except the Tigers. The Over is 7-1 in the Cowboys last 8 and they are in the same category as the Bunnies with respect to defence as they are second worst in that department.
Prediction:
The Rabbitohs have consistently lost the yardage battle through the middle third during their form slump and it has exposed their poor goal-line defence. We have seen glimpses of improvement from Cody Walker in attack and their left side (Walker, Mitchell, Wighton and Johnston) is sure to do some damage when given the opportunity. The Cowboys have shown that they can put the points on the board in quick succession so the Bunnies will need everything they can get in attack. With the two worst defensive sides in the NRL on display, this should end up being the highest scoring match of ‘Magic Round’.
Best Bet: Over 51.5 points ($1.90)
Value Bet: To Have 4+ Tries Combined (Trios) – Alex Johnston/Jacob Gagai/Kyle Feldt ($6.00)
3:50pm, Sunday 19th May | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The Panthers may have climbed to second on the NRL ladder following a fourth straight win but it came at a price with reigning Clive Churchill Medal winner Nathan Cleary succumbing to the hamstring injury that kept him out earlier in the year. Jack Cole will take over in his absence with Tago also returning for the premiers after serving his suspension. The injury woes are more significant for the Warriors who have lost Shaun Johnson, Tuivasa-Sheck and Freddy Lussick. Tuaipiki has been named to start at fullback with Nicol-Klokstad surprisingly listed to partner Te Maire Martin in the halves.
Head To Head:
With wins in the last 8 meetings between the two sides, the Panthers have completely dominated this matchup. They have posted an average winning margin of 19.13 points across those games and have held the Warriors to 12 or fewer points in 6 of the last 7 clashes. The Panthers dominance is further highlighted by an 11-3 line record in the last 14 battles as the betting favourite. The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 when the Warriors have been listed as the home team with the corresponding fixture in last year’s Magic Round meeting between them ending 18-6 in favour of the Panthers.
Stats That Matter:
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to recognise that the Warriors have failed to live up to expectations in the last month and an 0-5 record at the line in their last 5 if proof of this. They have also failed to cover the line in 10 of their last 15 following a loss which is further suggestion that we will not see the best they have to offer here. A look at the Warriors team statistics and it is hard to uncover their struggles. They rank 2nd in possession, 3rd in completion rate (81%), 1st in run metres and 3rd in post contact metres. Creativity in the attacking zone is what has hurt them the most and overcoming that without their starting halves and a reshuffle will not be easy.
Prediction:
These two teams play a similar brand of footy which involves completing sets, kicking to the corners and making your opposition work hard coming out of their own end. The biggest difference is that the Panthers have incredible line speed in defence and attack in unison when they get down the other end. The points dried up in the second half against the Bulldogs last week without Cleary with the Panthers confidently relying on their defence to get them through. That will be a common trend in the coming weeks for the Panthers which makes the Unders the bet of the round. We will also stick with the Panthers 1-12/21-30 points double which was a huge $9 winner last week.
Best Bet: Under 41.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Panthers 1-12, 21-30 Total Match Points ($9.87)
6:05pm, Sunday 19th May | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The Eels are staring down the barrel of a 4th consecutive defeat and have lost 5 of their 6 games since Mitchell Moses sustained a foot injury. He has some chance of returning next week with Dylan Brown to be partnered by Daejarn Asi for this one. The return of Bryce Cartwright should add some spark off the bench with Hands dropped leaving Lussick to play all 80 minutes at hooker. The Storm went down to the Sharks last week and will again be without Jahrome Hughes but to get Coates back on the wing.
Head To Head:
When the Eels get into the grind in recent years, they have been able to beat some of the best in the NRL including the Panthers and Storm. They had won 4 in a row against the Storm leading into last year, but the Storm were able to complete the season double over them for the first time since 2019. Regardless of the odds, there is rarely much between them with 2 of the last 4 clashes going to golden point. Of the last 7 meetings, 6 have been decided by a 1-12 margin with 4 of the last 6 producing no more than 36 total match points. Being installed as the betting elect has carried weight in this series with the Storm going 4-0 both straight up and at the line in their last 4 as the favourite.
Stats That Matter:
During the two decades that Craig Bellamy has been at the helm of the Storm, they have made a habit of avoiding poor performances in back-to-back matches. History doesn’t lie as they are 10-0 in their last 10 following a loss which includes posting a 5-2 line record in the seven most recent games in that scenario. In contrast, the Eels are 3-7 at the line in their last 20 on the back of a loss with the Over hitting in 70% of those games. The Over is also 6-0 in the Storm’s last 6 away games with the Eels notably losing their last 4 games played interstate by a margin of 13+.
Prediction:
With the Eels conceding 30+ points in each of their last 3 and the Storm coming off a loss, look for the Melbournians to bounce back in a big way. The Eels have scored 20+ points in only 1 of their 6 games without Mitchell Moses and will likely find themselves behind early as the Storm have scored the opening try in 67% of their games so far this season. The Eels do have an edge in the pack, but we have not seen them utilise it in recent weeks. Their strength in that area has seen them concede only 14% of their tries through the middle third but they will have to contend with Harry Grant who has scored 4 tries in his last 3 against the Eels.
Best Bet: Same Game Multi: Storm 5.5, Over 39.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: 61 Points or More, Coates Anytime Tryscorer, Grant Anytime Tryscorer ($14.23)
8:25pm, Sunday 19th May | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The Dolphins solidified a spot in the top 4 with a gritty win over the Eagles last week but the same cannot be said about the Tigers who crashed to a 6th straight loss. To make matters worse Bateman (pectoral), Papali’i (suspension) and To’a (hamstring) are all unavailable. That will see Naden line up in the centres and Alaimalo on the wing with the duo of Seyfarth and Twal coming into the starting pack. Tabuai-Fidow returns in a huge boost for the Dolphins, but the tireless Max Plath will have to sit out after sustaining a concussion last week.
Head To Head:
They split the two meetings in the Dolphins inaugural season beginning with a 26-16 win for the Dolphins in Round 5. The Tigers would get their revenge in an epic – posting a 24-23 win in Round 25. Isaako put the Dolphins ahead via a field goal in the closing stages but an Api Koroisau penalty goal in the dying minutes would determine the outcome. The betting favourite collected the points on each occasion with the Under holding on in both games.
Stats That Matter:
A run of 6 defeats has been accompanied by an 0-6 record at the line for the Tigers. They continue to fight for all 80 minutes, and it has resulted in the Unders holding on in all 9 of their games played this season! They have managed to hold teams to an average of 22.4ppg despite their poor record but an uninspiring attack has resulted in a very low average of 37.2 total match points in their games so far in 2024. There is a perception that the Dolphins are always involved in high scoring matches but the Under has managed to hold on in 70% of their games played in the last 12 months.
Prediction:
Can’t go anywhere near the Tigers here despite their commendable efforts in a run of losses. Brent Naden has no idea how to defend at the centre position and was made to look like a schoolboy by Bradman Best last week. We should see the Dolphins attack down their left side to expose him with Tabuai-Fidow wrapping around to cause the damage. The Tigers will not contribute more than two tries to the total which makes the Under a great bet with our Same Game Multi to include Tabuai-Fidow and Bostock to get onto the scoresheet.
Best Bet: Under 45.5 points ($2.00)
Value Bet: To Have 4+ Combined Tries (Trios) – Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow/Herbie Farnworth/Jack Bostock ($5.80)