NRL Tips & Preview | Round 10

9:50pm, Thursday 9th May | Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The Eagles were up 20-0 at home to the Raiders who also had a player in the sin bin. A lack of respect for the footy and their opposition saw them run down in the biggest upset of Round 9. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are coming off an excellent away win over the Cowboys with winger James Isaako scoring a hat-trick. Olakau’atu has one match left on his suspension with the visitors set to welcome back Ben Trbojevic to the lineup. Tabuai-Fidow and Flegler are still missing for the Dolphins, but Herbie Farnworth is slated to make his return.

Head To Head:
Their one and only battle came in Round 15 last season with the Eagles posting a crushing 58-18 win. Garrick (3), Koula (2), Saab (2) and Tom Trbojevic (2) all crossed the line on multiple occasions as the Eagles ran riot on the northern beaches. Of the 13 tries scored in the match, 12 were by outside backs – players wearing jerseys 1-5.

Stats That Matter:
Consistency is something the Dolphins have struggled to achieve. They have won only 2 of their last 8 following a win and have been successful at the line in only three of those games. More specifically, the Under has held on in 7 of those 8 games which suggest points could be harder than expected to come by. The Eagles have covered the line in 7 of their last 11 following a loss and last week’s loss was only the second in their last 9 as the betting favourite. The Dolphins have claimed the points in only 1 of their previous 7 as a home underdog and the Under continues to be the play in this spot for them. The Under is 8-3 in their last 11 home games including 3-0 in their last 3. In contrast, the Over is 5-0 in the Eagles last 5 leading into this one.

Prediction:
Surrendering a 20-0 lead to the Raiders could be the wake up call that the Eagles needed. They managed to get away with one against the Titans in Round 7 and two late tries in the final 10 minutes against the Eels disguised what was a poor performance. One thing we know about the Dolphins is that they will fight for 80 minutes but the Eagles have a clear edge in class. Fuller struggled under the high ball last week and is sure to be tested by Cherry-Evans kicking game. Happy to be with the Eagles in this one.

Best Bet: Manly WIN ($1.73)
Same Game Multi: Tri bet – Either Team To Win By Less Than 12.5, Under 47.5 points, Tommy Talau Anytime Tryscorer ($6.87)

8:00pm, Friday 10th May | BlueBet Stadium, Sydney
The reigning premiers made it three in a row with a dominant win over the Rabbitohs despite Nathan Cleary being rested. The Bulldogs posted consecutive wins for the first time in more than a year but their win over the Tigers was not pretty. Cleary returns for the Panthers, but former Bulldog Paul Alamoti will replace Tago in the centres (suspended). Connor Tracey will reclaim his spot at fullback ahead of Taafe with Preston back into the starting lineup after coming off the bench last week.

Head To Head:
You don’t need to look at the history between them to know that the Panthers have dominated this matchup. They have won 6 in a row against the Bulldogs with an average winning margin of 25.7 points. Dating further back, the Panthers are 8-0 in their last 8 as the betting elect versus the Bulldogs but we will be more interested in line betting here. The Panthers were 44-18 winners in their only clash last year with a trio of forwards (Yeo, Garner and Sorensen) scoring tries. Stephen Crichton was also on the scoresheet but along with the likes of Kikau and Burton is now wearing blue and white.

Stats That Matter:
The Panthers are 4-0 at the line in their last 4 games at BlueBet Stadium and 10 of their last 14 as a home favourite. That said, the Bulldogs have been undervalued by the market over the last month and have managed to go 6-0 at the line in their last 6. Wins in only 1 of their last 10 following a loss is concerning for the visitors but they have covered the line in 4 of their last 6 following a defeat. The Under is 4-0 in the Bulldogs last 4 away games and has held on in 7 of their last 10 as the away team in this series.

Prediction:
There has been a noticeable improvement from the Bulldogs in all areas. Defensively, they are holding teams to only 17.4ppg this season which has resulted in an average of 37.9 total match points in their 8 games played to date. Irrespective of numbers, the Panthers are the best defensive side in the NRL and the Bulldogs left side will not enjoy the same success that they have had in the last month. Their substantial improvement in defence will keep them in the contest here – especially their knowledge of the Panthers attacking schemes thanks to Crichton and Kikau who will defend the respective edges. With wet weather forecast throughout the week, the Under looks a very attractive play.

Best Bet: Under 39.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Panthers 1-12, 21-30 Total Match Points ($9.04)

10:00pm, Friday 10th May | CommBank Stadium, Sydney
Things could not have gone worse for the Broncos in Round 9. They suffered a rare home loss but were no match for the Roosters who put 40 on them. To make matters worse Adam Reynold tore his bicep and will be out for 3+ months with Jesse Arthurs to join him on the sidelines after suffering a broken jaw. Madden and veteran Corey Oates will be their replacements in a match where both sides will be without many of their stars. Moses is not ready to return for the Eels who have been dealt another blow with Gutherson needing knee surgery.

Head To Head:
Last season was the first time since 2016 that the Broncos beat the Eels more than once in the same year. They were 26-16 winners in Round 8 in a game that the Eels took to TIO Stadium and followed that up with a 54-10 thumping at The Gabba in Round 24. Unpredictable is the best way to describe this matchup as the favourite has won only 63% of the 27 games played since 2009. It has been 13 meetings since they both scored 20+ points in the same game. Farnworth and Mam managed to score four pointers in each of the two battles last season.

Stats That Matter:
One of the Broncos strengths in the last year is bouncing back following a poor performance. They have won 6 of their last 8 after a loss to go with a 3-1 record both straight up and at the line in their last 4 as an away favourite. The Eels have an 80% win rate as the betting elect in the last year, but that figure drops to 25% as the underdog over the same period. High scoring games has been the theme for both teams with the Over hitting in each of the Eels last 4 games and 8 of the Broncos previous 12 away fixtures.

Prediction:
Despite both teams missing their respective halfbacks it is hard to see anything but a high scoring contest. The Broncos only know one way to play and that is to spread the ball early and push the extra pass. It failed to work last week with Reece Walsh making a handful of errors, but he will not hold back here. The Over has hit in 8 of the Eels last 11 following a loss and after allowing 30.8ppg in their last 5, they are unlikely to slow down one of the best attacking teams in the NRL. The Eels have been torched out wide in recent weeks so look for at least one of the Broncos wingers to score 2+ tries.

Best Bet: Over 45.5 points ($1.90)
Value Bet: To Have 3+ Tries Combined – Corey Oates/Deine Mariner ($4.60)

5:00pm, Saturday 11th May | Scully Park, Tamworth
We were quick to write off the Knights after Pongs got ruled out for an extended period, but they have knuckled down over the last fortnight and defended their wait to consecutive upset wins. The Tigers deserve credit for their effort and resilience, but it has not been enough to prevent them from losing their last five. They missed the direction of Koroisau around the ruck last week and his return will help but they will not be without Sezer who has been suspended for a hip drop. Meanwhile, the Knights have the benefit of rolling out the same starting side.

Head To Head:
They have clashed two times in each of the last two seasons with the Knights winning and covering the line in all four games! Dominic Young had a double in each of the two clashes last year so look for the Knights right winger to be a major threat. There have been 30 or fewer points in 3 of the last 4 meetings but there has been an average of 45.7 total match points in NRL games played at Scully Park.

Stats That Matter:
The betting odds have been very relevant with respect to the Knights. They have won 11 of their last 14 as the betting favourite including each of their last three as a road fav. In contrast, they have been victorious in only 2 of their last 8 as an away underdog. Similarly, the Tigers have won only 25% of their games as a home outsider in the last year and are facing a 6th straight loss at the line after failing to cover in their last 5 leading into this contest. The issue for the Tigers is a lack of cohesion in attack. The Under is 7-0 in their last 7 games and that streak is almost certain to continue. Interestingly, the Knights have scored the opening try in 6 of their 9 games played so far in 2024.

Prediction:
Not only is the Unders the bet of the round, but it is also close to the bet of the season thus far. The Tigers have been held to fewer than 20 points in all but one of their games so far this season and the Knights have turned to their defence to win games in the absence of Ponga. Their two games without him have produced 32 and 22 total match points respectively. The absence of Sezer is another thorn in an inferior Tigers kicking game so make the Unders your biggest bet of the year!

Best Bet: Under 43.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Alternate Total Under 35.5 points, Enari Tuala Anytime Tryscorer ($6.91)

7:30pm, Saturday 11th May | Netstrata Jubilee Stadium, Sydney
Replacing Jason Demetriou at the helm of the Rabbitohs last week did not yield the result they were hoping for. There was hope when they took a 12-0 lead against the Panthers who had a player sin-binned, but the Premiers reeled off 42 unanswered points as the Bunnies capitulated. Latrell Mitchell returns but any talk of him moving to the centres has been quashed following the injury to Jye Gray. The injury to Dean Hawkins will see Wighton remain in the centres and Dion Teaupa line up alongside Walker. The Dragons ran out of puff against the Sharks but do get a boost of their own with Suli returning following the nasty concussion on ANZAC Day.

Head To Head:
The Rabbitohs have won 9 of the last 11 clashes but home ground has been the big indicator in recent years. The home side has won the last 5 meetings which includes the Dragons winning the corresponding fixture last year 36-30. The Over is 4-0 in the last 4 battles hosted by the Dragons with an average of 57.5 total match points across those games. Ravalawa has scored 4 tries in his last 3 appearances against the Rabbitohs.

Stats That Matter:
There are numerous concerning statistics surrounding the Rabbitohs. Outside of the fact that they have lost their last 4 games and managed to win only 1 of their last 7 as the outsider, their streak of 15 straight losses at the line is something that cannot be ignored. They have lost 10 of their last 11 games played in Sydney and face a Dragons side that has covered the line in 11 of its last 17 following a loss. The Under is 12-4 in the Dragons last 16 games but that is countered by the Rabbitohs 4-0 Over record in their last 4 away games. The Bunnies have the worst defence in the NRL and have allowed 36.5ppg this season.

Prediction:
Let’s not fall into the trap of thinking that the Rabbitohs will turn things around because Latrell Mitchell is back in the lineup. Their defence has been non-existent with and without him in the line-up and losses of Murray and Host will further expose their edges in defence. We will be backing the Dragons to pick apart a backline that includes Shibasaki, Thompson and Chee-Kam. Regardless of the weather, the Overs is a very attractive play.

Best Bet: Over 47.5 points ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Dragons WIN, Zac Lomaz 2+ Tries ($5.70)

9:35pm, Saturday 11th May | AAMI Park, Melbourne
After 9 Rounds of the 2024 season the Sharks and Storm sit first and second respectively on the NRL ladder. The Storm were able to squeeze out another narrow win last week but it came at a cost with fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen sustaining another ankle injury. Jahrome Hughes is also out opening the door for the visitors who are fresh off a win in the local derby against the Dragons. They are almost at full strength with Royce Hunt replacing Rudolph in the only change.

Head To Head:
A 6-1 record in the last 7 meetings suggest that the Storm have dominated this series but that is not entirely true. The Sharks had won 5 of the previous 7 clashes prior to that stretch and did win consecutive games at AAMI Park in 2017/18. The Storm have retained favouritism despite missing several key players and have posted a notable 9-3 line record in their last 12 as a home fav.

Stats That Matter:
Statistically, the numbers are pointing to the Sharks. The Storm have a 33% success rate at the line in games after a win in the last year compared to 73.3% for the Sharks in the same scenario. The Storm’s 9-game winning streak as the home team cannot be ignored but missing two key spine players will change how they play. Their 8-4 Over record in their last 12 home games does not look as appealing, especially with the Under holding on in 9 of the Sharks last 12 away games. Mulitalo has 4 tries in his last 3 against the Storm and his streak could continue as the Storm’s right defensive third has allowed 48% of their total tries this season.

Prediction:
The Titans +14.5 was the bet of the week in Round 9, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Sharks get backed into favourites here. The Storm are like a cat with nine lives this season as 6 of their 7 wins this year have been by a margin of no more than 8 points. The Dolphins are the only side to have missed fewer tackles than these two sides and you can be sure that the bulk of the game will be played through the middle third. With Papenhuyzen and Hughes out, the Sharks will have a clear edge in the attacking third. You just have to look at the winger combinations – Mulitalo and Katoa versus Warbrick and Anderson. Sharks!

Best Bet: Sharks +1.5 ($1.90)
Same Game Multi: Sharks +7.5, Under 41.5 points, Mulitalo Anytime Tryscorer ($4.84)

4:00pm, Sunday 12th May | Allianz Stadium, Sydney
If the Roosters can continue to replicate their performances from the last fortnight, they will be genuine title contenders. After blowing the Dragons off the park 60-18 on ANZAC Day they went to Suncorp Stadium and dismantled the Broncos 40-18. They now get Tupou, Radley, Lenui and Waerea-Hargreaves back with the bookies reacting accordingly by giving the visitors a double-digit start. The Warriors were abysmal in a loss to the Knights and have now lost three in a row – all as favourite. They also lose Capewell for this one after he sustained a calf injury.

Head To Head:
There has been no joy whatsoever for the Warriors in this matchup. The Roosters have won the last 7 meetings which includes victory in each of the last four games played in Sydney. The Under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with an average of only 27.3 total match points across those meetings. There is some support for the Warriors as they have managed to win 4 of the last 9 clashes as the road underdog.

Stats That Matter:
An 0-4 line record in their last 4 highlights just how underwhelming the Warriors have been in recent weeks. They have won only 1 of their last 5 as an away underdog and have not been converting on the platform being set by Fonua-Blake who is 4th in all run metres and 1st in post-contact metres. He will need to lead the way again here as this one is likely to be played through the middle. The Under is 11-1 in the Roosters last 12 games following a win, 7-4 in their last 11 home games including 2-0 in their last 2.

Prediction:
Beating the Broncos by 22 points at Suncorp Stadium is no easy feat but the home side did themselves no favours by making an endless number of errors. The Warriors may have lacked polish in attack in recent weeks but there is one thing they do not do and that is defeat themselves. They rank in the top three in possession and completion percentage which means they will not be handing the ball over in their own half. Don’t be fooled into the fact that the Warriors have won only 3 games this season as they have allowed an average of only 18.3ppg this season. You want to be on the Warriors with the big start and the Under.

Best Bet: Warriors +11.5/ Under 43.5 points ($3.05)
Same Game Multi: Warriors 1-12, 31-40 points ($15.13)

6:05pm, Sunday 12th May | Cbus Super Stadium, Gold Coast
A run of four consecutive losses has seen the Cowboys fall to 10th on the ladder and their slide will continue if they fail to come away with the points from their trip to the Gold Coast. The Titans may have registered just the one win this season, but their last three losses have come by a combined total of only 7 points. Slow starts have proved costly, and they have been forced into a reshuffle with halfback Tanah Boys out with an injured wrist. Chad Townsend returns to his role wearing the no.7 jersey for the visitors in their only change from last week.

Head To Head:
The Cowboys have won 14 of the last 18 meetings but this series has been closer than that figure leads on as they have split the last 8 clashes. The Titans have won 3 of the last 4 played at Cbus Super Stadium and have posted a profitable 4-4 record in the last 8 encounters as a home underdog. The Under is 5-0 in the last 5 hosted by the Titans but as we will see later, the Over has been a lock in recent matches involving the Cowboys. In their Round 5 clash earlier this year, Drinkwater scored a double in a match that ended 35-22 in favour of the Cowboys.

Stats That Matter:
We wrap up Round 10 on the Gold Coast and this could end up being the highest scoring match of the round. The Over is 7-0 in the Cowboys last 7 games and there has been an average of 52.7 total match points in Cowboys games so far in 2024. The Over has hit in 6 of their last 9 following a loss and each of their last 6 away games dating back to last season. The Cowboys are 0-3 both straight up and at the line in their last 3 away games and their win rate as the betting elect away from home reads a mediocre 50% in the last year. David Fifita has been in devastating form with a try in 2 of his last 3 but has failed to get on the scoresheet in his last three appearances against the Cowboys. The Titans have scored the opening just twice this season and with Foran and Jolliffe the two unlikely heroes.

Prediction:
After the Titans delivered in style last week we will continue to ride them here. The Cowboys defence is paper-thin and the Titans have shown more than enough ticker to suggest they can cause an upset here. They have fought their way back from deficits on multiple occasions in recent weeks and have consistently been the stronger team in the final 20 minutes. That is the period where this game will be won. Titans!

Best Bet: Titans +2.5 ($1.87)
Same Game Multi: Titans WIN, Alternate Overs, To Have 2+ Tries Combined – AJ Brimson/David Fifita ($9.35)